Outrights plays (total stake per play: 1pt)
Shigeki Maruyama to win 14/1 e.w. @ BetDirect [6 places]
A little uncomfortable tipping the lesser of two events on the same Tour as motivation is always an issue, so these are at lower stakes than typical PGA Tour tips. The addition of an extra place with BetDirect is also an important incentive not to just write off this event. But it is the issue of motivation that will be central with Maruyama and why he is priced at single-figures in places. In terms of form and ability, he should be the red-hot favourite and in his one appearance in this event (2003), he finished 6th, shooting 68 or lower every round. But having finished just two shots away from earning enough money to qualify for the Tour Championship this week, the belief that he will compete fully needs to be addressed. In this respect it is worth recalling what was written for the Michelin Championship: "such late season form should not be a surprise with Maruyama: he three October events last year yielded finishes of 16th, 19th and 2nd, while in 2003, he finished 3rd and 1st in October." He does tend to close out the season very well before heading back to Japan and there really is no point in playing this week unless he was trying to win. In the preview for the Michelin Championship, Carl Pettersson was also identified as a player who tended to play particularly well in October, so hopefully Maruyama can follow suit.
Tom Pernice to win 25/1 e.w. @ BetDirect [6 places]
In contrast to Maruyama, Pernice has a lot of extra-tournament incentives this week. His current burst of form which has seen him finish 16th, 2nd and 3rd in the last three weeks after a week's break has seen him rise from 129th in the World Rankings to 70th. He is now only six places away from making his WGC debut in the World Matchplay in February. And his current rise up the Money List would mean that victory this week would guarantee him a top-30 place in the Money List and thus an automatic place in the 2006 U.S. Open over-and-above any eligibility issues via the World Rankings. So, in the form of his life and having been denied a chance for victory in his last visit (2002) when only five shots behind Luke Donald when the final round was cancelled, he should be another whose momentum should carry him through the final event of 2005.
Hidemichi Tanaka to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetDirect [6 places]
Would have preferred place-only odds, but at, effectively, 16.5/1 to finish in the top-six for a half stake, there is plenty of value here. Like the other selections, he has very strong form at the moment to let momentum carry him at this late stage of the season and he has played well on this course in the past. His 8th place finish in the Michelin Championship got him into the top-150 in the Money List and his 3rd place finish last week lifted him 34 places to safety at 115th. He has shown in the past, particularly in 2003 season, that he can string a series of top-5 finishes together and it was in that season that he finished 4th on this course. If he continues to play anything like he has done recently, a repeat performance is certainly possible.
Shigeki Maruyama to win 14/1 e.w. @ BetDirect [6 places]
A little uncomfortable tipping the lesser of two events on the same Tour as motivation is always an issue, so these are at lower stakes than typical PGA Tour tips. The addition of an extra place with BetDirect is also an important incentive not to just write off this event. But it is the issue of motivation that will be central with Maruyama and why he is priced at single-figures in places. In terms of form and ability, he should be the red-hot favourite and in his one appearance in this event (2003), he finished 6th, shooting 68 or lower every round. But having finished just two shots away from earning enough money to qualify for the Tour Championship this week, the belief that he will compete fully needs to be addressed. In this respect it is worth recalling what was written for the Michelin Championship: "such late season form should not be a surprise with Maruyama: he three October events last year yielded finishes of 16th, 19th and 2nd, while in 2003, he finished 3rd and 1st in October." He does tend to close out the season very well before heading back to Japan and there really is no point in playing this week unless he was trying to win. In the preview for the Michelin Championship, Carl Pettersson was also identified as a player who tended to play particularly well in October, so hopefully Maruyama can follow suit.
Tom Pernice to win 25/1 e.w. @ BetDirect [6 places]
In contrast to Maruyama, Pernice has a lot of extra-tournament incentives this week. His current burst of form which has seen him finish 16th, 2nd and 3rd in the last three weeks after a week's break has seen him rise from 129th in the World Rankings to 70th. He is now only six places away from making his WGC debut in the World Matchplay in February. And his current rise up the Money List would mean that victory this week would guarantee him a top-30 place in the Money List and thus an automatic place in the 2006 U.S. Open over-and-above any eligibility issues via the World Rankings. So, in the form of his life and having been denied a chance for victory in his last visit (2002) when only five shots behind Luke Donald when the final round was cancelled, he should be another whose momentum should carry him through the final event of 2005.
Hidemichi Tanaka to win 66/1 e.w. @ BetDirect [6 places]
Would have preferred place-only odds, but at, effectively, 16.5/1 to finish in the top-six for a half stake, there is plenty of value here. Like the other selections, he has very strong form at the moment to let momentum carry him at this late stage of the season and he has played well on this course in the past. His 8th place finish in the Michelin Championship got him into the top-150 in the Money List and his 3rd place finish last week lifted him 34 places to safety at 115th. He has shown in the past, particularly in 2003 season, that he can string a series of top-5 finishes together and it was in that season that he finished 4th on this course. If he continues to play anything like he has done recently, a repeat performance is certainly possible.
