SANTA ANITA -- Race #8 -- ST. AVERIL (#7)
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The 8th race today is the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby which is 1-1/8 miles on dirt and has a par of 110. This field only has 7 colts in it this year but it is not short on talent. If you're looking to move on to the Kentucky Derby then you'll have to show a decent finish in this race. WIMBLEDON will probably go off as the favorite in here off a crushing win against maidens here at Santa Anita with a 103-107-104+ and then a decent win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby with figures of 104-106-108. Baffert is a multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer and is a master of not tightening the screws too early on his Derby horses.
So WIMBLEDON has the challenge of trying to maintain a peak all the way between his big maiden win in Feb. and the 2 big prep races. I must admit that I would be surprised to see Baffert have WIMBLEDON ready to step forward off that last race in today's race. In interviews he's mentioned that the colt has already punched his ticket for the Kentucky Derby and that he's hoping for a "safe race". Those sorts of comments strengthen my belief that Baffert will be looking for a solid finish from WIMBLEDON but won't be looking to lay it all out on the track this afternoon so that he has some horse left to sharpen up for Churchill Downs. In the 3 year old Derby preps I can't be centering on any colt who looks like he'll just trying to maintain his current form. I want to center on a horse who looks like he'll be moving forward to one of his new top efforts. Since WIMBLEDON's Louisiana Derby figure has been matched by several other runners, that's another reason to go shopping in this race.
ST. AVERIL is my guy today and is the spot play win bet. After analyzing all of the Derby preps run in Southern California, the Santa Catalina was the one that stands out. The "110" figure barrier is a magical barrier for Derby colts to achieve on their way to the big race, and ST. AVERIL remains the only entrant in today's race who's been able to do that. In the Santa Catalina he closed on a legitimate early pace, went 3 wide on the far turn and then drew off with a solid finishing kick to earn figures of 108-108-110. 3rd place finisher Master David had already run well in a Grade 3 stake at Aqueduct and then came back to win the Sham stakes.
The one bad thing for ST. AVERIL is that you don't want to fire such a big effort in January if you're wanting to still have a peak effort left for the Kentucky Derby in May. So it's not surprising that some foot problems that had plagued ST. AVERIL cropped up after the huge effort. They hampered his training and he reportedly wore a "bar shoe" in training between the Santa Catalina and the San Felipe. The colt was not fully ready for the San Felipe off the foot problems and the 60 day break but he showed me again that he is a force to be reckoned with.
The figures did not come up that strong with Preachinatthebar winning it with a 106 final for the 109 par, but ST. AVERIL earned a 100-101-106 and got a wide trip throughout while closing stoutly to miss by a nose. Supposedly his foot problems have not cropped up since that race and his training has progressed normally. All I needed was a reason to think that ST. AVERIL could bounce back to the big Santa Catalina effort from 2 starts ago, and I think there are sufficient reasons to go with that scenario. He's never been worse than 2nd in his career, shows 3 strong efforts in graded stakes at 1-1/16 miles and should be ready to pop today at 1-1/8. He's the only horse in the race besides IMPERIALISM to show the ability to run the middle fraction of the race in under 24 seconds and also be able to finish off strongly.
QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH, IMPERIALISM and ROCK HARD TEN have all impressed me at some point along the way. QUINTON suffered from being wide early last time out and regressed from a 103-109-108 maiden win to a 103-106-102+ effort in the San Rafael. He's better than that race indicates. IMPERIALISM has done nothing wrong in winning a 7 furlong stake with a 97-105+ and then winning the 1-mile San Rafael with a 95-102-108. ROCK HARD TEN is unbeaten in 2 starts with a big 97-106 maiden sprint win and then a 104-106-107+ allowance win. He's gotten a lot of attention and seems like a popular pick from all sorts of public handicappers. He is very talented but at low odds and possibly as the 2nd choice in here it's not safe to focus on him alone.
ST. AVERIL is the one guy I want to center around in this race. He's my win bet and key to exotics. I'll be using QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH and IMPERIALISM as my main contenders who could add value. Good luck.
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The 8th race today is the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby which is 1-1/8 miles on dirt and has a par of 110. This field only has 7 colts in it this year but it is not short on talent. If you're looking to move on to the Kentucky Derby then you'll have to show a decent finish in this race. WIMBLEDON will probably go off as the favorite in here off a crushing win against maidens here at Santa Anita with a 103-107-104+ and then a decent win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby with figures of 104-106-108. Baffert is a multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer and is a master of not tightening the screws too early on his Derby horses.
So WIMBLEDON has the challenge of trying to maintain a peak all the way between his big maiden win in Feb. and the 2 big prep races. I must admit that I would be surprised to see Baffert have WIMBLEDON ready to step forward off that last race in today's race. In interviews he's mentioned that the colt has already punched his ticket for the Kentucky Derby and that he's hoping for a "safe race". Those sorts of comments strengthen my belief that Baffert will be looking for a solid finish from WIMBLEDON but won't be looking to lay it all out on the track this afternoon so that he has some horse left to sharpen up for Churchill Downs. In the 3 year old Derby preps I can't be centering on any colt who looks like he'll just trying to maintain his current form. I want to center on a horse who looks like he'll be moving forward to one of his new top efforts. Since WIMBLEDON's Louisiana Derby figure has been matched by several other runners, that's another reason to go shopping in this race.
ST. AVERIL is my guy today and is the spot play win bet. After analyzing all of the Derby preps run in Southern California, the Santa Catalina was the one that stands out. The "110" figure barrier is a magical barrier for Derby colts to achieve on their way to the big race, and ST. AVERIL remains the only entrant in today's race who's been able to do that. In the Santa Catalina he closed on a legitimate early pace, went 3 wide on the far turn and then drew off with a solid finishing kick to earn figures of 108-108-110. 3rd place finisher Master David had already run well in a Grade 3 stake at Aqueduct and then came back to win the Sham stakes.
The one bad thing for ST. AVERIL is that you don't want to fire such a big effort in January if you're wanting to still have a peak effort left for the Kentucky Derby in May. So it's not surprising that some foot problems that had plagued ST. AVERIL cropped up after the huge effort. They hampered his training and he reportedly wore a "bar shoe" in training between the Santa Catalina and the San Felipe. The colt was not fully ready for the San Felipe off the foot problems and the 60 day break but he showed me again that he is a force to be reckoned with.
The figures did not come up that strong with Preachinatthebar winning it with a 106 final for the 109 par, but ST. AVERIL earned a 100-101-106 and got a wide trip throughout while closing stoutly to miss by a nose. Supposedly his foot problems have not cropped up since that race and his training has progressed normally. All I needed was a reason to think that ST. AVERIL could bounce back to the big Santa Catalina effort from 2 starts ago, and I think there are sufficient reasons to go with that scenario. He's never been worse than 2nd in his career, shows 3 strong efforts in graded stakes at 1-1/16 miles and should be ready to pop today at 1-1/8. He's the only horse in the race besides IMPERIALISM to show the ability to run the middle fraction of the race in under 24 seconds and also be able to finish off strongly.
QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH, IMPERIALISM and ROCK HARD TEN have all impressed me at some point along the way. QUINTON suffered from being wide early last time out and regressed from a 103-109-108 maiden win to a 103-106-102+ effort in the San Rafael. He's better than that race indicates. IMPERIALISM has done nothing wrong in winning a 7 furlong stake with a 97-105+ and then winning the 1-mile San Rafael with a 95-102-108. ROCK HARD TEN is unbeaten in 2 starts with a big 97-106 maiden sprint win and then a 104-106-107+ allowance win. He's gotten a lot of attention and seems like a popular pick from all sorts of public handicappers. He is very talented but at low odds and possibly as the 2nd choice in here it's not safe to focus on him alone.
ST. AVERIL is the one guy I want to center around in this race. He's my win bet and key to exotics. I'll be using QUINTON'S GOLD RUSH and IMPERIALISM as my main contenders who could add value. Good luck.
