Spurs........... Nba Championship

[british bulldog]

I PRODUCED THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE FOR A SITE IN THE U.K. AND WILL SHARE MY THOUGHTS WITH YOU ALL HERE.



NBA CHAMPIONSHIP. SAN ANTONIO SPURS over New Jersey Nets.

Whoever said the Western Conference finals series would truly decide the NBA championship was right - no team from the East can stack up against a power from the West. All of the sudden, some analysts and columnists are giving the New Jersey Nets a fighting chance, when the Nets don?t really have a shot of winning this series.

The San Antonio Spurs have the league's MVP in Tim Duncan and a former MVP in David Robinson. Robinson will retire at year's end and San Antonio is drawing inspiration for their championship run from the 'Admiral'. They?re look to end his farewell tour in championship fashion.

I can understand why the Nets have people fooled. They did breeze through the Eastern Conference playoff bracket. However, San Antonio would have too. Consider the Spurs' dominating 23-6 straight up (SU) record against Eastern Conference opposition during the regular season. Also consider they went a near-flawless 17-1 SU and 11-6-1 against the spread (ATS) versus teams from the East since the beginning of 2003. And San Antonio's stellar work against the lesser conference includes going an unbeaten 12-0 SU and a moneymaking 8-3-1 ATS versus the East's playoff-bound teams in 2003.

New Jersey has been playing against boys and the men have slugged it out in the Western Conference. Of course they're going to look good coming into Game 1; the Nets have been playing all-East opposition since the end of March. However, New Jersey went an unprofitable 3-5 SU and ATS in its last eight games against teams from the Western Conference - a more realistic indication of how they might stack up against the West's best.

Even more bleak for the Nets is the series will start at San Antonio. New Jersey is a miserable 4-10 SU when traveling to Western Conference buildings and they're 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in the most recent nine of those contests. And when the series turns to Continental Airlines Arena for Games 3 and 4, the Nets will have more on their hands than a cook at the Klump's family reunion.

San Antonio tied Dallas for the Associations best road record (27-14 SU) and was 29-20-1 ATS away from home this season. The Spurs ended the regular schedule by winning 17 of their last 19 road games SU and are 6-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs. They went a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at American Airlines Arena at Dallas in their last series. San Antonio continues to dominate defensively. They held offensively-talented teams in the Suns, Lakers, and Mavericks to 91.7 points per game. The Spurs and Mavericks played 'under' in each of the final four games of that series. Add to that, the Spurs have been stingy at home, having given up less than 90 points per game at the SBC Center this year. The 'under' is a bankroll-building 7-17 in San Antonio's last 24 outings.

Games 3 and 4 will be the only games in this series played at the Swamp, the Nets will feel bogged down in what will be a four (sweep) or at best a five-game series win for the Spurs.

Add all that up and add the following, Five days of rest is good, while ten days of rest is excess. That is the situation at the start of the NBA Finals on Wednesday evening when the New Jersey Nets return from a ten day layoff. The Spurs will benefit from their five day break, while New Jersey will show rust after a week and a half away from the court. The home team was a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS in the regular season meetings, which is no surprise since the Nets have one of the most extreme home/road dichotomies in the league. New Jersey was a solid 39-9 SU at home, but a weak 22-26 SU away (as compared to the Spurs solid 33-17 SU road mark). The better team usually wins Game One and the Spurs finished with the best record in the NBA this season. San Antonio has been playing excellent basketball and has led eight of their last nine playoff games by at least 16 points or more each game (vs. the Mavericks and Lakers). Look for the Spurs to get another double-digit lead and ! not let up this time as Tim Duncan and company sends a forceful message to New Jersey. The prices posted by Pinnacle appear well out of line and Bet365 are much nearer the mark. The Spurs will be favourites in every game and start Game 1 as 9.5 points favourites and on the road the line should be around the 4 points mark.

THIS IS THE BIGGEST GIVE AWAY IN THIS YEARS CHAMPIONSHIP. STEP FORWARD PINNACLE AND GIVE ME YOUR MONEY.


Play on San Antonio for a series win 4 - 0, 4 - 1


2 points San Antonio to win 4-0 +720 Pinnacle Bet365 go +350

3 points San Antonio to win 4-1 +450 Pinnacle Bet365 go +260

4 points SPECIAL Will NJ Nets win more than 2. 5 games?..... NO @ -128 Pinnacle

 

[ajoytoy]

excellent write-up BB

gl with your plays


toy

 

[Hoops]

Nice write-up, thanks for the time.

Disagree though. NJ is the most balanced of the teams the Spurs have played in the postseason. Phoenix gave San Antonio a very tough series, even though Marbury hurt his hand early in the series and wasn't 100%, beat the worst Lakers team of the past 5 seasons, and beat a Dallas team that almost forced a 7th game playing without Nowitzki for half of the series. Wasn't that much more impressive than what NJ did in the postseason IMO.

Nets can defend, rebound, score, run the fastbreak better than as well as anyone in the league, quality bench...much more well-rounded for a playoff series than anyone else the Spurs have faced.

 

[british bulldog]

I respect your opinions but the Nets are just boys.

I know the Lakers had a short bench and lacked Fox on the defense, but if the Lakers were here in the final, wouldn't the Lakers be +300 to win 4 - 0.

Also New Jersey had their chance in the regular season, yet came up short 0 - 2 AGAINST THE SPURS

The Nets trip to the final has been against inferior sides. Boston who live by and die by the 3 pointer. Detroit who gave up after losing first two at home which they should have won. Don't forget Detroit shot 7 points from the field in the 4th quarter. Call it good defense or what you like, but they put up 23 shots with no blocks.

On the other hand don't you feel San Antonio got complacent. Up by double digits over Dallas in all but one game. A 4th quarter lead where they decided to gun and run and missed bucket after bucket and allowed 30+ points.

Apart from the best player in the league in Duncan, please don't suggest that the Nets have anyone that can compare to him. Also San Antonio will get as much if not more production from their bench players than the Nets.

THIS IS A COMPLETE MISS MATCH. Watch New Jersey struggle to score 85 points per game. They may score 20 points in transission but 65 from else where on the court ?..............I think not.


Good luck with whatever you decide to play. You know what I am playing.................DUNCAN to spur San Antonio home.

 

[Hoops]

Spurs have a nasty habit of blowing big leads...they have done it the entire postseeason..not just a case of being complacent for a few games. Poor decision making and poor free throw shooting have been rather consistent.

Kidd is right up there with Duncan as far as making his team better. If there was a mock draft that involved players from the Nets and Spurs, after Duncan, the Nets have the three best players after him..Kidd, Martin, and Jefferson. Not as if they don't have the talent level to compete with San Antonio..the most certainly do.

Would like to hear comments as to if you think Phoenix is a better postseason team (with a less than 100% Marbury.and if you want to talk 'should have', the Suns should have won the second game of that series and been up 2-0) than the Nets and if not, why will the Spurs dominate NJ when they couldn't do so to an inexperienced Phoenix team.

 

[british bulldog]

Hoops as I said I understand your points and reasons.

You pick up on the fact that the Nets are a better rebound team. Yes you are correct, the Nets have a +2.6 difference compared with the Spurs +2.0 .

However, In offense the Nets trail San Antonio both in F.G.% by 1.6% and 3 pt% by 1.4%.

Then there's the defense, there is only 0.2% difference between the teams in F.G.% defense, yet a large gap in 3 pt defense. In fact the Nets are a whole 1% lower than the leagues average and with the Spurs above the league average for 3 pt % offense, this is where the game will be won, from outside the paint and the arc.

As I said, I wish you the best of luck with your play on the Nets. I may well play the Nets on some of the spreads but mainly the totals because both sides will play great defense in the paint and under the bucket.