Round 4 plays (4pts):
Scott Brown to beat Camilo Villegas -106 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
With an impressive record on this course - four top-15 finishes in the last five years - Villegas has found a way to score well on this course even when not playing well - he has missed the cut in five of his last six events and finshed 40th in the other and, in terms of this week, he ranks 56th (of 75) in Strokes Gained Tee to Green this week and 1st in Strokes Gained Putting. Now that he is inside the top-10 of a final round, the strains on his ball-striking will be more acute and so good putting should not be able to save him in this round, This is what happened in the only previous time that he had started the final round inside the top-10 this year: he shot 74 in the final round of the Sony Open to drop from 8th to 44th. Brown has played far better this week and should far better than Villegas today.
Mark Wilson to beat Ben Crane +120 @ Paddy Power
Sometimes you need to handicap just one player in a matchup to be successful; that was not the case yesterday as Crane expectedly struggled to a 4-over-par round, but Collins fared one worse. Wilson should make a more dependable opponent to Crane. He recovered well from dropping four shots in his opening three holes yesterday, wheres Crane fell away dramatically towards the end of the round so Wilson would have felt much better after his round. He ranks 12th in greens in regulation so far this week, whereas Crane has struggled to hit greens in regulation this week. All this points to value with Wilson, particularly at these 'ties push' odds.
