After seeing the money line I'm not so excited about this game. -185 for the Devils is a bit too high. Sure, they should have the edge, but they're certainly not a lock (not that -185 is a "lock," -185 means better than 65% for value).
I figure that the Av's will have to play a little more carefully, especially on the defensive end. Not that the Devils scored a ton of goals, but after getting the lead they didn't need to. I think that the Av's may be careful not to let the Devils score first, and if the Devils do score first, the Av's will be super-careful not to fall behind 2-0, which would probably kill them here.
I can see Roy allowing 2-4, tops, and Brodeur allowing 1-3.
With a total of 5, this extrapolation, for what it's worth, leaves
...under 3/9, or 33.3%
...over 3/9, or 33.3%
...push 3/9, or 33.3%
These semi-arbitrary numbers means that the Devils win maybe 6/9, or 66.6% of the time, which makes the -185 a mini-value.
Of course, a 2-2 tie actually lowers the under % and raises the push %, because of overtime. A regulation tie at 2-2 or 3-3 also slightly lowers the 66.6% on the devils win that I mentioned above, as in OT it's pretty much up for grabs.
This really screws up my initial thoughts on the game -- the under, in particular -- as a -135 under looks like an iffy play. The over, at even $ now looks tempting.
So why am I still tempted by the under?
Is the devil involved in this "temptation" thing?
I suppose that I'm forecasting something goofy like no scoring in the first, a couple of goals in, or by, the end of the second period (with the Devils up or tied), and a carefully played third.
Talk about going out on a limb!
Somebody slap me!
Hellllllpppppppp!!!!
I figure that the Av's will have to play a little more carefully, especially on the defensive end. Not that the Devils scored a ton of goals, but after getting the lead they didn't need to. I think that the Av's may be careful not to let the Devils score first, and if the Devils do score first, the Av's will be super-careful not to fall behind 2-0, which would probably kill them here.
I can see Roy allowing 2-4, tops, and Brodeur allowing 1-3.
With a total of 5, this extrapolation, for what it's worth, leaves
...under 3/9, or 33.3%
...over 3/9, or 33.3%
...push 3/9, or 33.3%
These semi-arbitrary numbers means that the Devils win maybe 6/9, or 66.6% of the time, which makes the -185 a mini-value.
Of course, a 2-2 tie actually lowers the under % and raises the push %, because of overtime. A regulation tie at 2-2 or 3-3 also slightly lowers the 66.6% on the devils win that I mentioned above, as in OT it's pretty much up for grabs.
This really screws up my initial thoughts on the game -- the under, in particular -- as a -135 under looks like an iffy play. The over, at even $ now looks tempting.
So why am I still tempted by the under?
Is the devil involved in this "temptation" thing?
I suppose that I'm forecasting something goofy like no scoring in the first, a couple of goals in, or by, the end of the second period (with the Devils up or tied), and a carefully played third.
Talk about going out on a limb!
Somebody slap me!
Hellllllpppppppp!!!!
