State of Origin 1 -- initial thoughts

[Fred]

I'm likely betting Queensland. Waiting closer to the weekend though.

Talent on both sides. Queensland want this one bad and will be on a mission to avenge the whitewash of last year. Home crowd will be a significant factor (more than a regular home/away). Bit worried about some Kimmorely magic cutting Q to ribbons. A great player back to form perhaps.

Not sure about the +3.5 v the m/l. First of an origin series are intense and desparate so taking the points might be the go in a likely close game.

Your thoughts?

 

[Anders]

I was hoping to get the Cane Toads at +4.5 but was being a tad optimistic. I see they jumped into +2.5 pretty quickly too at Centrebet.
The dogs certainly hold appeal here due to the reasons you've mentioned Fred, while Johns' absence thru injury is a huge blow to the Cockroaches - he split the series open midaway thru game 2 last year.
At this stage though, don't think I'll play this game - maybe one or two $10 prop bets at long odds

 

[Cartman88]

State of Origin is generally a great spectacle of the best talent in the game, but often not good from a betting perspective.

Last year New South Wales were simply too good for Queensland. It was possibly the most convincing State of Origin series since it started 20 years ago.

There are a few changes to both sides, but in my opinion not enough to reverse the trend from 2000. So on the surface I expect New South Wales to win. If Andrew Johns was playing I would be even more confident. Not only because he the best player in the world but also because of his awesome performance last year.

However as we know State of Origin is notorious for producing the unexpected.

With the game being played in Brisbane I would want to get $1.80 to consider New South Wales worth backing, but this is unlikely so I will probably not have a punt.

If you are backing Queensland I do think it is worth taking the points rather than the money line.

 

[Cartman88]

I am still in 2 minds whether I will have a bet on State of Origin but I am very tempted by the under 18.5 1st half avaiable with Centrebet.

Game 1 is traditionally the tightest of the series (was the lowest scoring game of 1999 and 2000). I expect the new interchange rules to have a bearing on the game total but not so much in the 1st half. Certainly when fatigue sets in the 2nd half the talented bench players will have an impact.

I would be surprised to see more than 3 tries in the 1st half so the under 18.5 1st half looks a solid bet to me.

And for those wanting a big return for a minimal outlay I think the draw at $26.00 has to be some value. Whilst there has only been one draw in State of Origin history (1999) this result is always on the cards.