State of Origin #2

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

My gut feeling is that NSW are going to bounce back and win this one but they are not backable at the price.

I am having just one bet on this game which is 1st half Under 18.5 @ $1.80 with Centrebet.

The 1st half of Game #1 was one of the most open I can recall and certainly one of the weakest defensively. Yet it still took until 38th minute to score more than 18 points.

There would probably need to be 4 tries in the 1st half to lose this bet, and with both camps focusing on defence this week I would be surprised it that happens.

The 2nd half could be a whole different story as fatigue sets in and the talented bench players start coming into play.

 

[Anders]

Hi guys...


Just a bit of info about Game 2; hope none of this sounds too patronising - it's the same stuff I've posted to the Down Under tip-site I work for so some of it is already covered in Cartman's take.
Hope it helps a bit anyway; will be back either late tonite or some stage tomorrow with a final preview and maybe a play. Bit undecided at present; leaning a little towards the Reds as doggies at present but still have lots of homework to do ...

Have the NSW selectors pushed the panic button or are the changes made for Game 2 of this series the right moves for the home team to get back on track?
That's the big question heading into Sunday nite's matchup, where the hosts start as a -4.5/-5.5 chalk against the convincing winners of game one last month.
The NSW selectors made 7 changes to their losing Game 1 unit.
Ryan Girdler returns at centre in place of Michael de Vere, and while their goal-kicking ability is near equal, Girdler should bring added solidity and attacking thrust to the Blues' backline despite being played at standoff for Penrith lately. Remember Girdler was the undisputed star of last year's Blues' series win.
The decision to dump Brett Kimmorley in favour of Trent Barrett is an interesting one. It probably has as much to do with Barrett's defence as his attacking prowess. Barrett isn't regarded as a huge fan of playing in the No 7 jersey but his partnership with Brad Fittler has to be a key to the chances of NSW's success. Kimmorley has struggled by his own admission after joining the Northern Eagles this season but has been in better form of late - a big call this one.
Kimmorley's Eagles team-mates Adam Muir and young prop Mark O'Meley have been brought in to bolster the forward effort after they were hammered by the Reds in game one, replacing Nathan Hindmarsh and originally Jason Stevens before he made a remarkable recovery from a neck injury to replace Robbie Kearns, while Matt Adamson and Craig Gower are on the bench along with Eels newcomer Andrew Ryan as Ben Kennedy dips out along with the injured Jason Croker.
Queensland have also had to make a few changes, with inspirational skipper Gorden Tallis out because of his season-ending neck injury.
Classy fullback Darren Lockyer takes over the skipper's duties as 20-year-old Broncos' team-mate Dane Carlaw replaces Tallis in the second row. Cowboys utility Nathan Fien replaces injured club-mate John Doyle as rake while Melbourne Storm forward Russell Bawden joins the squad to cover the absence of suspended prop John Buttigieg.
Despite being hosts for game one, the Reds started as +2.5 underdogs but had no problems covering in a 34-16 demolition in a game which could have finished nearer to 48-30! Many may think it will take a leap of faith to back the unders in this one, but both coaches will have been working furiously on improved defensive lines and formations since game one.
The Blues were beaten in every single area on the park first-up and the old hands like Fittler, Robbie Kearns and Bryan Fletcher must play much bigger roles for the hosts to reverse that effort on Sunday.





[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 06-06-2001).]

 

[Anders]

State of Origin Two:

NSW v Queensland, Stadium Australia
NSW -4.5/-5.5

Despite their first game shellacking, the Blues have been made favourite for game two for two reasons - home advantage and the premise that they will improve notably on their awful Game One effort.
The Blues players have freely admitted this week they did not match Queensland for intensity in both preparation and game-time in Game One. Why the hell not? What did they think it was going to be; a stroll in Lang Park??
Some players have already paid the price as the NSW selectors wielded the axe. The most-talked about demotion was that of halfback Brett Kimmorley - who showed what he thought of the decision by running the cutter superbly as Country thrashed City on Fri nite.
In his place will be Trent Barrett, who has experience in the No 7 shirt but it's not his favoured position. How he and Brad Fittler combine will play a big part in the Blues effort.
But first they must match the Reds up front. They were outmuscled in Game One and while there is no Tallis now for the Reds, his club coach Wayne Bennett can simply bring in more raw Broncos talent in Dane Carlaw.
I don't think the Reds will simply back down here, even while I do think the Blues will make some improvements on their initial display. It's hard to ignore the telling numbers from Game One - Reds completed 37 of 42 sets and 55% possession; Blues missed 40 tackles to the Reds' 21 and made 11 mistakes to Queensland's 4. And don't forget the Reds were up 34-4 after 55 minutes before easing off the throttle.
The Blues have been quick to protect coach Wayne Pearce from the criticism that followed Game One. And while they do have a point that Junior Pearce didn't drop the ball and miss tackles, there is a vast gulf in ability between the two coaches in the Reds' advantage.
The Reds have the upperhand in firepower out wide in the dynamic Broncos trio of Lockyer, Sailor and Tuquiri while the Blues will be banking on Fittler and Barrett to outplay Wagon and Green. Muir and O'Meley should stiffen the home team's pack but there's no toughness lacking in that Reds pack either.
Expect a close contest; I'll take the impressive Game One team getting points.

PLAY QUEENSLAND REDS +5.5 (1 unit)
PLAY REDS 1ST HALF +4.5 (2 units)
PLAY OVER 40.5 (1 unit)

1ST TRYSCORER (play only if they are a fraction of your other wagers. For example, my basis is $100 = 1 unit)
RYAN GIRDLER (NSW) $14 x $10
TRENT BARRETT (NSW) $17 x $10
LOTE TUQUIRI (QLD) $16 x $10
PAUL BOWMAN (QLD) $26 x $5
KEVIN CAMPION (QLD) $34 x $5

GLTA

 

[AussieVamp2]

am sure I saw an early line on this just after the first game of NSW pick, so definitely been bet up a bit?

 

[Anders]

Great take on this game Cartman, spot on ..

Frustrating (my word of the weekend) kind of game for me; got the 2-unit first half play but couldn't nail a profit. Felt the Blues - who were much the better team - got the benefit of some dodgy calls and when I'd given up on the Reds covering, they don't get given the Priddis try (no worse than Barrett's)

as I had my fingers crossed for the over.
Totally objective and impartial view of course

By getting the 2-unit play and the over in the City v Country game; managed to sneak out of an annoying weekend no worse for wear ...

 

[Cartman88]

Thanks Anders.

That result was much needed after such a disappointing effort in the AFL.

With the State of Origin series now tied at 1-1 it sets it up for a very interesting decider at ANZ Stadium.