State of Origin 3

[Fred]

I'm betting NSW -4.5.

Queensland's home ground advantage won't be as strong as Origin 1 (Queensland redeemed themselves then). The Alf move will put a lot of pressure and focus on Queensland, especially Alf himself.

btw I enjoyed your betting union article Anders.

from it>>
"I'm very keen to get feedback on how most 'cappers work the AFL". Me too.

A thought on one aspect;

I've thought that motivation in AFL is greater than perhaps any other sport. This is why Sheedy and other coaches even manufacture insults to create a 'us v the world' mind set.

Critical articles by journos are stuck on walls to fire up players. Slights, real or imagined, by opposing players/coaches are motivational fuel.

The 'let's do it for the coach' (just resigned) or 'fresh start/slate's wiped clean (newly appointed) motivation is obviously apparent.

Not that any sport could be capped on motivation alone but i think it's a very important part of AFL.

 

[boris]

Originally posted by Fred:

The 'let's do it for the coach' (just resigned) or 'fresh start/slate's wiped clean (newly appointed) motivation is obviously apparent.

Not as much as you think - the last six mid-season coach sackings have led to two wins, three losses and one draw.

[This message has been edited by boris (edited 06-26-2001).]

 

[Fred]

fair enough

but, i'm wondering, were the winners long odds dogs? ie St Kilda v Geelong last year at $5.15 (from memory) making it profitable?

What about the 6 games ATS?

 

[djv]

Boris working in Singapore. Other then a little hot. What you think of Singapore. Been there few times. Dam best airport I ever went through. And that little country has some nice ladies. Singapore seems so neat and clean all the time. If I remember right thay have some tough laws to see it stays that way.

 

[Anders]

After plenty of deliberation, I can't recommend a play on either side in this one. The line looks about right and there are so many intangibles in what should be a fantastic game of rugby league.
NSW have more talent, and a better bench, and should get home. But so much of Origin football is played with heart and head that the lesser lights can shine on the night - no better example than in Game One of this series.
There is equal motivation for both teams with the series on the line - and add in Langer's return for Qld and Fittler's last rep match for NSW. The home crowd factor and Wayne Bennett's coaching nous sways me towards Qld at +4.5 but it's only a lean and not a jump. If you want to back NSW, definitely worth getting the line without the hook at -4 at Global Sportsbet; may be vital in a push situation.
Expect some surprises from the home team - eg Lockyer often playing at standoff with Schifcofske at fullback, Daniel Wagon in various positions etc.
The best play for me is the total. The books expect defence to be up a notch from the first two games due to the winner-take-all aspect but I'm yet to be convinced that over 80 minutes the tired and battered bodies can keep the score under 36.5. I'll lay the chalk and take the over to win one unit.
PLAY OVER 36.5 TO WIN ONE UNIT

GLTA

 

[beast2]

A great game to end the State of Origin series with either side capable of winning. The home crowd will be of huge benefit to Queensland but the real question is what effect will the return of Alfie have on Queensland? My opinion is a positive one and should mean that we see the best out of all the Queensland players. NSW. on the other hand, will be motivated by the fact it is Brad Fittlers last game and they will want to send him out on a winning note. With the line at 5.5 I recommend a play on Queensland.

As far as the total goes I hate to disagree with Anders as he has such a great record but in this case I am going to take the under 36.5 points as it would have won 7 out of 8 in Game 3 deciders over the last 10 or so years. I just discovered that I can get Under 40.5 making this an even stronger play.

Plays (Odds from Sportodds):
Queensland +5.5
Under 40.5

Craig

 

[Cartman88]

No plays for me on State of Origin tonight but I do think NSW will be a bit too classy.

[This message has been edited by Cartman88 (edited 06-30-2001).]