Statistics When Betting

[TMS31078]

I have always wondered how much weight people give trends or previous year stats when deciding who to bet on? For instance one of the service plays Mizzou posted had a note that read:
Home dogs in the Wild Card round are 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS since 1976. The Ravens are 5-0 SU & ATS in their last five meetings with Tennessee. Play the Ravens as our Wild Card GOY.
Obviously their picks is bmore, but how much weight does a trend from 1976, although very interesting, have to do with any two teams meeting today? What are others thoughts on this issue?

 

[big joe]

How many of those games were with current players, especially Wright at QB?
Seems it is something to look at, but I don't see the relevance, personally.
gltu

 

[Blackman]

I look at a trend like this in two ways. First, I see a year like 1976 and think to myself, "well players/teams from 25 years ago will have not power over the outcome of todays game so the trend is useless." This might be a valid though - but I think it is more important to look at it from another angle, and that is just how important home field is in the playoffs. All those teams winning SU and covering the spread at home does mean something. My cardinal rule for situations like this is that I don't use such a trend to make my play for me, but if I'm on the fence for the game I won't bet against such an overwhelming trend either.

 

[TMS31078]

See black youre kinda thinking exactly what I was. Does a trend from 1976 impact these two teams, NO. However, that trend shows how important homefield advantage has been no matter whos playing. Since I am kinda on the fence on this one, I am going with the home dog.
Bmore +2

 

[dunclock]

there are lies
there are damn lies
and there are statistics

Go Titans

gltu

 

[Blackman]

TMS-

Yup, I think homefield advantage is huge in the playoffs and that is what it reflects most. I'm laying off this game except for two small player props - my lean was to Tenn but as I said before I avoid betting against trends such as this. Hoping a strong play will present itself at the half.

GL to you today.

BM

 

[dukie]

TM, I think this is a very important trend over 18 years there have been only 12 road favorites and only 1 team has won outright and none have covered the number. Wow that is unbelievable, was on Baltimore because I always find value in home dogs, but this info helps with the confidence.