Stats that may be VERY Favorable

[Magic_01]

I have been looking at some games recently and wondering if any one can run some stats for the season so far on this scenario.

A home team favorite losing at home, what is the % of the time as a home favorite they win the following game?

Example:

Yesterday 4 home team favorites lost.

St. Louis
San Fran
Arizona
Tampa Bay

Todays plays would be

St. Louis
San Fran
Arizona

Not Tampa Bay because they are home dogs today.

I was wondering if anyone would like to go through the season a research this stat. I am pretty positive it will be VERY favorable stats.

 

[Magic_01]

ok, I will start tracking these from this day on.

Yesterday 2-1 (+.55)

Cards W
Giants W
DBacks L -145

Todays plays would be

Florida -140
Dbacks -140
Toranto -165
Baltimore -140

 

[Bombs]

This wont make you any money in the long run.

 

[Jackanape]

I have to concur. Playing favorites is a dodgy business in bases, especially a favorites system.

For example, yesterday you won 1/2 unit, but one bad day for the system, and you're down 4-5 units...killing at least 7-10 days, depending on the rate of success.

Good luck with it, though, I'll be watching with interest.

 

[cisco]

If a team is on a 3 or more game losing streak AND is a home favorite, bet on that team. System is 12-3 +7 units this year.

 

[Magic_01]

Not sure how this system is going to work, just something I thought I might try. I will keep track til the allstar game and see how things are going.

Yesterday was 2-2 for -.8 Units

For 2 day total now is 4-3 -.25

4 plays meet the critiria for Today

Florida -150
Milwalkee -110
Arizona -130
Texas -130

 

[Magic_01]

Yesterday went 4-0 +4
total now 8-3 for +3.75

Todays plays would be

St Louis -150
San Fran -125

 

[Magic_01]

Yesterday 1-1 -.25

YTD 9-4 +3.5

Today there are no games that meet the criteria

Good Luck everyone.

 

[Magic_01]

Todays plays

LA -115
Colorado -105
Philly -185
Houston -105

Lots of small favs today.

 

[Cie]

If a team is on a 3 or more game losing streak AND is a home favorite, bet on that team. System is 12-3 +7 units this year.

Home fav based on the opening line???

 

[Magic_01]

Yesterday Picks went 3-1 for +2.95

Stats so far. 12-5 +6.45

Todays plays are

Washington -110
Pittsburg -125
Houston -165
Minny -115

 

[Magic_01]

Yesterday 3-1 for +2.85

Season 15-6 +9.3

Today picks are

Philly -160
White Sox -105
Minny -130

 

[Magic_01]

Yesterday 2-1 +.95

Since posting 17-7 +10.25

No plays today

This week I am going to go back thru all the games since begining of the season and track those plays and see how they stand.

 

[cisco]

LSU-
It's whenever I turn on my computer.
I guess the answer would be yes.
Record is now 22-6 with the Twins winning sunday.

Check With RIGHT SIDE posts. He does an excellent job keeping track of this trend and will let you know when to play it.

 

[Magic_01]

Since posting 17-7 +10.25

Todays plays are

Cleveland -110
White Sox -160

 

[Magic_01]

Since posting 17-7 +10.25

Todays plays

White Sox -160
Cleveland -110

 

[Magic_01]

Yesterday 2-0

Since posting 19-7 +12.25

Today

Washington -135
Minnesota -135

 

[locman]

you may want to consider only playing teams above .500 -- i did not check, but think that this may increase an already strong system.

although bases tends to be a streaky game... great info and go nats & twinkies!

 

[wareagle]

this is my kind of system!

another sweep yesterday :clap: :clap:


keep up the good work!

i think todays plays:

houston -70

colo -30

 

[Magic_01]

Yesterday 2-0 +2.00

Since posting 21-7 +14.25

Todays plays

Colorado -130
Houston -170

I have also been watching if a home favorite is off of 2 losses as a favorite, to double up. During my posting that has only occurred once and it was with the whitesox a few games back. But as for now I will stay with this favs system and see how things work out. Can always add new angles as the season goes on.

This stat is a little bit harder to track unless you really watch and go back through all the games in the last few days. This could be if a team was on the road for game 3 of a series as a fav and lost, then came home and loss game 1 as the fav, then it would fall into a double play.

This would also count if they lose 2 away games in a row as favs and then come home as the home fave to play as a double play.

System only plays on home favs though, but can get plays from prevous losing games on the road, if someone else wants to start checking on them games we can see how they work out.