STD (spot the draw) - German Soccer

[Riskbreaker]

It's this time of the year when guilty pleasure soccer starts scratching again like an actual STD. Although I dislike (German) soccer and refuse to handicap a sport I consider more luckybounce than anything with its threeway results and low scoring, I'm gonna try something over the course of the season which is "spot the draw".

On average the draw or tie in Bundesliga (1 and 2) cashes around 25% of time. So every fourth game on average is a draw and every gameday has 9 games (league has 18 teams).

So picking 2-3 draws at +200+ odds per gameday while excluding unlikely lopsided Bayern Munich games and such = longterm value. Right? Just an experiment...

I'm sticking to Bundesliga 1, because I don't know shit about most of the teams in Bundesliga 2.

Gameday 1
FC Cologne v VfL Wolfsburg DRAW +230
VfB Stuttgart v Schalke 04 DRAW +225
Hertha Berlin v FC Nurnberg DRAW +230

:shade:

 

[kickserv]

I have always thought if you bet 10 dollars on the draw on every game throughout a season you'd win money.

Of course I have never done it, so I'll never know.

Good luck on the season.

 

[Snafu]

Bundesliga 1

2010-11 draws 20.6%

http://www.h2hstats.com/soccer/arcleague.php?getlg=GB1&sn=10_11

Bayern Munich had most away draws, 6

French division 1 2010-11 draws

half time 45.6%
full time 34.2%

http://www.h2hstats.com/soccer/league.php?getlg=FR1

check H2Hstats.com to soccer league stats

:0008

 

[Riskbreaker]

Thanks kick and thanks for your input Snafu.

Looking at your numbers France might be an even juicier proposition, but then again I'm not touching Bundesliga 2 due to lack of knowledge. So how can I try this with France, when I'm not even able to name the Munich equivalent there.

Of course Germany's 10/11 20% were a low while France's 34% was a high (they seem to hover around 30% over the years) but there you have to choose from 10 games per gameday. I also assume oddsmakers somewhat adjust accordingly.

With this approach you might find some Kazakh league where goatherders decide to pack it up after 70 minutes for a nice cup of warm tea and draws come in at a stunning 52%.

I'm not saying I'll exclude Bayern Munich per se. They are actually a good proposition as visitors, as shown by your numbers, because home teams consider a draw vs Munich a win. But when Augsburg are visitors in Munich there might be better options for a draw that gameday.

GL on the season.

 

[Riskbreaker]

bumpetyhump, let the crapshoot begin.

gl guys!

 

[Riskbreaker]

Only one draw in week 1, which I sadly didn't spot.

0-3 -3.00 units

Gameday 2
FC Nurnberg v Hannover 96 +225
VfL Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich +250
Bayer Leverkusen v Werder Bremen +250

If I had an even sweeter tooth for gambling I would parlay Hamburg and Schalke this gameday, after seeing their crappy opponents play last week. Granted, they played crappy themselves, but those are nice bounceback opportunities in their respective home openers.

GL

 

[ukgaz]

I have always thought if you bet 10 dollars on the draw on every game throughout a season you'd win money.

Of course I have never done it, so I'll never know.

Good luck on the season.

I once created a labouchere line (very small amount as was test system) for draws for the English Championship division (division underneath the Premiership) using Betfair as my sportsbook. I made a profit for the year but did not keep with the system. Betting on draws is good soccer betting tactic but I prefer the Asian Handicap route.

 

[Riskbreaker]

Betting on draws is good soccer betting tactic but I prefer the Asian Handicap route.

Agree. If I wouldn't throw darts at draws every week I would prefer 2way over 3way for sure. I especially liked Pinnacle for Asian Handicap because you can adjust the line there, buying or selling points.

My experiment hasn't produced anything but a massive loss yet. 0-6 -6.00 units.

Gameday 3

VfB Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen
X + 240
FSV Mainz 05 v Schalke 04
X + 220
Borussia M'gladbach v VfL Wolfsburg
X + 220

 

[kickserv]

Long season.....ya hit 2 or 3 draws in a row and you are in great shape:SIB

 

[Riskbreaker]

...entering area of mathematical improbability 0-9 -9.00u

Gameday 4

Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen
X + 240
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund
X + 240
Hannover 96 v FSV Mainz 05
X + 225

 

[Riskbreaker]

Variance kicks in, delivers a win.

2-1 +3.65units -> 2-10 -5.35 units


Gameday 5

VfL Wolfsburg v Schalke 04
X + 220
VfB Stuttgart v Hannover 96
X + 240
FSV Mainz 05 v Hoffenheim
X + 230

 

[Riskbreaker]

No draws at all on Gameday 5. 2-13 -8.35 units

Gameday 6

Hoffenheim v VfL Wolfsburg
X + 250
Kaiserslautern v FSV Mainz 05
X + 230
Schalke 04 v Bayern Munich
X + 275