Still time to make money on fading pro football teams

Senor Capper

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With six games remaining on the slate for every NFL team, there?s still plenty of time to make money fading the teams that have quit on their coach and their season.

There?s most definitely an opportunity to make money with last place teams if they play with passion and precision down the stretch. Here?s my take on four that entered Sunday?s games in last place in their respective divisions.



Kansas City Chiefs

We?re 11 weeks into the season, and this sorry Chiefs offense hasn?t improved one iota. There?s talent to work with ? Jamal Charles and Peyton Hillis make a decent ?thunder and lightning? duo running the football. Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki, Dexter McCluster and Steve Breaston have all enjoyed past success as playmaking pass catchers, although Bowe got hurt early and wasn?t a factor against Cincinnati.

The same two issues that have plagued KC all year haven?t gone away ? turnovers and red zone offense. Hillis? first half fumble negated a scoring opportunity. And KC was settling for field goals ? just like they have all year - instead of finding a way to punch the football into the end zone.

The defense is really wearing down. When plodding Cincy RB Ben Jarvis Green Ellis rips off big gainers, it?s a statement of effort and horrible tackling. Flat, lifeless and lethargic ? KC isn?t likely to give good effort two weeks in a row. They did play hard last week, but Arrowhead Stadium is bringing out the worst in the Chiefs!

Only one of their five opening day OL starters was in the same spot. And the one ? left tackle Brandon Albert ? left the game with a bad back. His status is uncertain moving forward. The Chiefs have had three different starting centers. Rookie Donald Stephenson got his first start at guard. Both Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn struggled once again, but weak offensive line play was certainly a contributing factor.



Philadelphia Eagles

The offensive line is a bottom tier unit right now; unable to both protect their rookie QB and blow open holes for LeSean McCoy to run through. OL depth was a problem coming into the season, and the steady stream of injuries has left this unit substantially depleted. Rookie Dennis Kelly (Purdue) started at tackle against Washington and was flagged for a key holding penalty approaching the red zone. On the very next play, just signed Jake Scott (off the waiver wire) had a false start. Instead of scoring, Nick Foles threw a desperation INT on third and 21.

While the game was still competitive, offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg made a concerted effort to protect his QB with a steady diet of running plays. It didn?t help very much ? Foles was pretty green in his starting debut. He had problems with tipped balls at the line of scrimmage, including a deflected pass that resulted in an INT, leading to a Redskins score. And Foles struggled to get his playmaking wide receivers involved ? DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin were complete non-factors.

Bobby April is a two time Special Teams Coach of the Year and he coached up one of the best groups in the NFL during his tenure at Buffalo. So why do the Eagles ST return units and coverage stink? The players aren?t buying in!

The secondary continues to get confused repeatedly in their coverage schemes.This time allowing a 49 yard bomb to a receiver who was open by about 20 yards ? another Nnamdi Asomugha blown coverage. So much for thinking former coordinator Juan Castillo caused the problem. It might be a very long final six weeks.




Jacksonville Jaguars

Blaine Gabbert took a whole bunch of big hits (no wonder he?s banged up), giving way to Chad Henne before the first quarter was through. It reminded me of the first meeting with Houston when the Jaguars gained only 117 total yards and held the ball for less than 17 minutes. Complete annihilation.

Henne was an instant spark, leading the Jags down the field into the end zone. Then Henne did it again on the next drive; a simple catch and run quick strike TD. There?s absolutely no comparison between how this passing game worked with Henne and doesn?t work with Gabbert, who has one 300+ yard passing day in his two year career ? and he needed 49 attempts to get there.

Henne threw for 350 at Houston while averaging more than 10 yards per throw. It wasn?t all big shots fired downfield ?there?s lots of catch and run in those yardage totals. The fact remains this was the first time in the last two seasons that the Jags legitimately looked explosive on offense. In large part, thanks go to rookie WR Justin Blackmon?s first breakout game. Of course it helped that the Texans? defense was flat as a pancake.

Typical Jags though. They scored a season high, but their defense also gave up a season high ? unable to protect a two TD lead with less than six minutes remaining. When you don?t force a single punt after the first quarter or allow a whopping 39 first downs and 640 total yards of offense, you?re not going to win many NFL games. Can the Jags show similar effort moving forward, even after their crushing third OT loss on the road this year?




New York Jets

The Jets enjoyed a mid-game morph at St. Louis, their first positive performance in weeks and an indicator that if New York can play up to potential, it can still be a factor in the AFC playoff race. That being said, this offense is still broken, with only two plays longer than 20 yards for the entire game.

Joe McKnight is healthy again (sat last week) and remains a dangerous kick returner ? some of the best offense the Jets have right now. He made a great over the shoulder catch out of the backfield to set up the Jets first scoring chance. But this passing game still has major issues. Mark Sanchez is not at his best under pressure and he?s facing a steady stream of blitzes as a result. This WR corps remains extremely limited. When CB Antonio Cromartie is lined up as a wide receiver, it speaks about the Jets lack of receiving playmakers.

Sanchez had a great touch on his longer throws against the Rams, far better with his downfield passes for big gainers than he was with his dink and dunks. When he finds a rhythm, he?s a decent QB. The problem is that there seem to be periods on a weekly basis where he looks ugly. The Jets pass rush was there all afternoon with the defensive line their best unit.

After their special teams debacle against Miami a few weeks back, I?d expect the kick blocking schemes to have been fixed, but clearly they weren?t.
 

Senor Capper

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Bettors keep coming up big at window

Bettors keep coming up big at window




With Oregon and Kansas State losing on Sunday, the books get their dream matchup that would involve No. 1 Notre Dame against No. 2 Alabama. The Fighting Irish haven?t been No. 1 since the 1993 season and have their massive following around the country excited again, which will translate to big action at the betting windows.

No offense to Oregon or Kansas State, but the Las Vegas sports books weren?t looking forward to that matchup from a business stance. Just like the television networks, the books want the best possible matchup to create the most buzz for the BCS Championship game. The more people are intrigued with the matchup, the more bets will be taken at the windows.

?Obviously, from a business standpoint we?re rooting for an Alabama-Notre Dame matchup to become a reality,? said William Hill?s Jimmy Vaccaro. ?If we get that game with the intrigue already built in between the two storied programs, and the length of time it will be on the board from early December to almost mid-January, it will be the single biggest handle on any college football game ever booked.?

Beyond all the regulars who have made their attempt at wagering a college football game this season, having Notre Dame playing for the championship brings that fringe audience into the book that may have not wagered all season, or ever.

These people want to feel a little bit of nostalgia from the past and somehow be part of a magical Notre Dame season. Making a wager for as little as $5 gives these type of fans a vested interest in their team.

By the way, oddsmaker Kenny White says he would make Alabama -7 over Notre Dame with a total of 38.


Las Vegas sports books mixed reviews

The Las Vegas sports books had mixed reviews over the weekend with the favorites going 6-6 against-the-spread, but collectively it?s fair to say the bettors got the best of them in Week 11.

The day was going nicely for the sports books until the Matt Stafford-led Lions blew a 6-point lead with less than two minutes left.

The Packers, laying 3 points, not only scored the winning touchdown, but got the ball back and kicked a field goal to cover thanks to the Lions having four straight incompletions when they got the chance to respond. Detroit turned the ball over on downs and refused to let the Packers run the clock out, using their final two timeouts.

Much to the delight of the crowd in the sports book, their luck on what was a bad day was starting to turn. The Packers were the most popular bet of the day, which kept a lot of bettors alive and helped them gain some momentum that spilled over into a game in Carolina.

The Buccaneers (-1?) began an 80-yard drive, down 21-13 to the Panthers with 1:02 remaining and no timeouts. The Bucs got the touchdown and tied the game with a two-point conversion. They also scored a TD in overtime making the score 27-21, which not only gave the popular Bucs the cover, but also sent the total OVER the number (47).

In a matter of five minutes, the sports books went from having a great day thanks to the Browns, Jets, Cardinals and Jags covering to being on the brink on massive late game jeopardy heading into the afternoon where everyone was on the Patriots, Saints and Broncos.

The Patriots and Saints both covered and sent their games OVER the total, a nice 4-team parlay bettors capitalized on. If the Broncos won, the bettors would have easily had their second best Sunday of the season.

Fortunately for the books, Philip Rivers got some protection against a prevent defense in the final four minutes with the Broncos favored by 7? and leading by 14. Rivers led the Chargers 80 yards for the back-door TD. However, there was some drama involved that made both the bettors and books sweat it for another four agonizing minutes as the score was under review.

The touchdown came on a fourth-down play, so if ruled no TD, the game would essentially be over. Sports book directors all across town collectively held their breath until the official announced the call on the field was upheld. Touchdown, Chargers.

The books were saved, but the tremendous weight of bets on the Packers, Bucs, Patriots and Saints were enough to get the bettors a little spending money for shopping on Black Friday.



Buccaneers OVER streak, a pot of bold

It took a miracle to keep the Buccaneers OVER streak alive on Sunday at Carolina, but after a few weeks of watching this Tampa Bay offense in action, calling anything they do offensively ?a miracle? is probably way off base.

It may have taken an 80-yard drive with a minute remaining and no time-outs, culminated with a two-point conversion to tie the Panthers 21-21, and then a touchdown in overtime to get to 48 points and their seventh straight OVER, but those last two drives of the game looked pretty much like the same Bucs I?ve been watching for the past six weeks.

The combination of Doug Martin running the ball and Josh Freeman toying with opposing defenses as he fires darts to a great receiving corps makes them one of the best offenses in football. For the last four weeks, bettors have simply been able to bet the Bucs and OVER on a two-team parlay paying 13-to-5, and cash. That combination has happened in five of the past six weeks.

The Broncos streak of four straight covers is finished after getting back-doored on Sunday against the Chargers, but they continue to be a strong play betting the totals OVER in their games. For the first time in franchise history the Broncos have scored 30-points or more in five straight games. They have gone OVER the number in five of their past six games.

After starting the season with two straight games UNDER the total, the Patriots have reeled off eight straight OVER. On Sunday, they beat the total of 54 themselves by five points. Most bettors religiously bet the Patriots just because of the scoring, but don?t come with the same tenacity at the betting windows on the Pats OVER.

Unlike the point spread that has caught and passed the Patriots by with over-inflation, the totals offered hasn?t seemed to have caught up with them. For the same reasons bettors take the Pats weekly, they should also be betting the total OVER.

You know the Patriots can score as many as they want on most teams, but they have a knack for letting teams harass them in the late stages of games. They?ve only lost three games this season by a combined four points, but 8-2 to the OVER sounds much better than 6-4 against-the-spread.



Happy Thanksgiving

If you happen to find yourself with nothing to do on Thanksgiving, which is true for many transient bettors in Las Vegas, take a stroll to your favorite sports book and do a little people watching. While working in the sports books, I loved being there for most of the day because there is a much different vibe to it than a regular NFL betting day.

First off, bettors seem to be much friendlier. Not that they?re collectively unfriendly, it?s just a small fraction of one percent, which comes with the job of taking their money and them being bad losers. But on Thanksgiving, even the toughest cookie who gives the writers a hard time treats the day with some reverence, kind of giving them a pass for the holiday.

What I amused myself with while working at both the Strip and local properties was trying figure out what the story was with some of the bettors I didn?t know. Some would stay the entire day ? wonder where they are from and what table is missing them right now. And some would make a quick visit ? probably telling the family they were going to the grocery store to get more yams just so they could get their action in.

Sometimes it?s hard being away from family, all alone in Las Vegas, and I kind of felt it was my duty to chit-chat more than usual with the bettors just to give them some conversation like they might get at the table with their family. Sending lonely individuals to a ?comped? turkey dinner in the caf? was a common practice in some of these instances.

I used to love writing tickets on the Strip during Thanksgiving because there was a massive overtaking of the hotel each Thanksgiving weekend from Asians as if there was a big flier in their country that said, ?come to Las Vegas on November USA holiday, town is empty, cheap rooms.?

These guys were great, and it gave me a little early insight into how emotions can turn with bets on a good or bad play that translates well in any language.

The cool thing about them was even though we didn?t understand each other, the international language of betting was clear. ?Cowboy and high,? was how most would call the game and without saying the amount, they?d splash out one-hundred dollar bills and give me a nod, suggesting that was the amount they wanted. Man, did they like to fire on their visits.

This Thursday the common wager tying almost everyone to a Thanksgiving parlay together will be the Texans (-3) at Detroit, Cowboys (-4) against the Redskins and the Patriots (-6?) at the Jets. The OVER in all three games will also be the most bet upon on the totals.

In order for the sports books to not lose on the day, they need to beat at least one of the sides and two of the totals, or vice-versa.



New Lakers Show

Mike D?Antoni hasn?t even taken over for the Lakers on the sideline yet, but it?s clear his presence within the organization is already showing up in the box score. D?Antoni likes his teams to run, and the Lakers scored 114 points against the Suns on Friday night and 119 Sunday night against the Rockets. The Lakers have covered and gone OVER in three of their past four games.

While we shouldn?t expect to see home totals on the Lakers as low as 200 anymore, the adjustment process the sports books will take to find the proper rating for home and road totals may take a few weeks.
 

hogman14

HBD Sports!
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Senor.

The best line in the 2nd post is "In order for the sports books to not lose on the day, they need to beat at least one of the sides and two of the totals, or vice-versa."

GREAT INFO.

BUYER BEWARE.
 
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