Stock club contest 2005/2006

[selkirk]

every year since it started have posted my recommendations (2 stocks) for the stock club contest.

out of around 13-15 clubs we have one once, and came in 2, 3, and this year 10th. a portfolio of $100k we are at $99.9K. cannot win every year. and this is the only year we did not beat the index TSX.

anyways a recap of my stock suggestions in the past then the selection for this year......
they all trade on Toronto

1. Coolbrands : $4.50-$4.75 might have been higher up to $5. this company sold ice cream treats, and had the weight watchers brands...the two go together...lol.

anyways was worried about managment but revenue was increasing and some important investors were buying the stock. so I followed. and also suggested it to the club.

went to over $24cdn. in 18 months (give or take). now trades at $2.77 company lost the weight watchers brand. they did not tell the market this license was coming due. and botched the whole deal. bad management. that was the time to sell.

had a large position and sold after making a gain of 50% in less than six months. sold over half of my position. only problem kept going higher to $24 yikes.

sold the remainder over $15. a good gain however should have kept all of the stock when it was making new highs. was not selected by the club.


2. Rider Resources $1.40-$1.80
this is a great oil/gas company, it was part of a merger.
in this one sold to early again..after making a good gain....see a patern here....

anyways bought some back after the merger and the company showed great results. went over $2.50 that year.

today trades at $18.10 52wk high/low $20.10 $5.
has been a great stock. no longer own any but will wait for oil gas to pull back ($55) and maybe the stock will trade in the $15-$16 range. may buy some at those prices.....well run company that did great for shareholders.

great company just have been selling most of my oil/energy holding, especially the ones that due not have options.


3. Connacher $1.40-$1.80 actaully bought some cheaper but that was the price when I suggested it to the share club and posted it here, for the first time.

stock had a bad quarter and I sold it for avg. .85 terrible results so bailed.

well guess what the company results turned around and they got a lot of hype over an oil sands property they own.

stock is at $2.44 52wk low high .48 2.69

lost money on this stock but took the money from the sale and invested in other energy stocks, so....
well still a bad trade.

nice when many other energy oil stocks had great years, also do not regret selling the stock.

however maybe should have looked at it after it came off its lows and then broke through $1.

all three would have worked out for the club.Connacher was the worse result for me......


thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

selections for 2005/2006

one selection forgot to mention is that every year suggested buying the XIU. tracks TSX 60 (top 60 companies) good index for tracking Toronto.

was selected every year but this year, though it never will win you the contest, ussually beats many other selections. this year was up 12%.

would sell/reduce as Toronto with a 25% energy weighting may come under presure. still a good long term holding.


selections
these two will post here, but since they trade in US $ on Toronto will not go into the contest $cdn. only.

will track these for a year and see how they perform. will buy positions in these also, may trade them but will post when I do..... probably keep them for the year.

November 9, 2005
1. SNH.u $5.70US
basically this tracks SP health index, trades at a slight discount of 6.35%

leverage of 3.26 - 1
now this works good if the market goes up and bad if it gets trashed.

2. SNP.u $4.10US
tracks the SP 100 trades at a discount of 6.55%
52 wk high 4.84 low 3.35
leverage 4.20

believe the US market will do fine, or hope so, if these indexes can make 10% then these will work out very well. also believe the cdn. dollar will not go to par, now at .84

these structered products charge a mangement fee, in snp.u .55MER.


these trade Cdn. dollars and are two hoping the club selects.
3. BSC $11.39cdn.
tracks the bank of scotia. a well run cdn. bank, pays a 1.46% yield and will grow over time.

leverage 1.94
expect BNS to increase 10% on average so then this product will make roughly 19.4% plus my 1.46% yield. not a bad return.

downside if BNS goes down....pain.....


4. SXT $12.80

tracks the TSX60 or XIU main Toronto index. of 60 of the largest companies.

leverage 1.99
if I like the index should like this investment.

hope either 3-4 will be selected by the club believe all 4 will do well this year.
bullish on US and cdn.

also good long term investments.
would have also listed a few jr. oil gas stocks but a few following trade on the venture. and any stock suggested must trade on Toronto.

we insisted on that rule or else you could for a few thousand bid up a penny stock that has little or no volume and win the contest.....

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

one final note wish the best to all the veterans who served on this Remembrance day.

good idea to buy a poppy and wear it.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Good job Kirk--did club members have any remorse about not buying Coolbrands.
In following you through the years one thing has always stuck out--almost as important in picking stocks is knowing when to buy/sell them.
One thing that has always impressed me and I have "tried" to follow during the years I've followed you (will be 10 years next year) is setting a quideline and making a profit despite leaving some on the table at times is the key-- and don't chase losers.Wish I had more of your dicipline and 1/4 your stock savvy --appreciate your sharing as always.

 

[selkirk]

DTB the club ussually misses two or three good plays a year. talked to one member that sold cdn. oil sands at $33 making 28%, problem went over $100.

many people chase losers, talk 5-6 people each year that have invested in a stock and want to buy more. recently someone was down 22% on a stock. asked if he was going to sell or keep the stock and hope ?? for a rebound. he was happy it was a good thing, because now he could buy more, it was "an even better deal now".

if my orginal postion does not show a profit; I never add to the position.

has been a good year but my three best trades might be selling stocks on bad news. sold three income trusts FMF.un, eat.un, clr.un. all three stocks lost me on average 5% however if I still held them would have been down 45% on the three stocks.

always good idea to take profits on a trade, however sometimes when a stock hit my price would sell it all. always good to keep some, especially if the stock seems to be making a new highs on a weekly basis.


a final note on these leveraged invesments, they should only make a small portion of the portfolio. leverage works both ways.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

a quick update on my picks (suggestions) for the shareclub belong to, listed in this thread....

Nov 9, 2005
1. SNH.u $5.70 currently $6.10

2. SNP.u $4.10 currently $4.51

3. BSC $11.39 currently $12.46

4. SXT $12.80 currently $15.93

hope for higher prices for the rest of the year. so far at least all for have made money.

none pay a dividend except for BSC .204 1.65%yield

all trade on Toronto, 1.2. in US $ and 3.4. in Cdn. $

thanks
selkirk