stock contest 04

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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first of all a quick recap, in 2003 our club finished with a return of $120,965.91 when counting dividends. We held and never traded out of the five stocks (only meet once a month) BMO, XIU, MBT, TD, TA. all trade on the TSX.

each person got to select 2 stocks a year, I picked a blue chip and a small cap.

my picks for the stock contest blue chip SAP which has held its own, almost 10% return in 2001 defensive play.

and XIU 2002 which track the TSE/SP 60 index, and returned over 20%, beating half of the clubs, expect this index to perform well in the future.

small caps CoolBrands Cob.a 2001 TSX traded at $4.50-$5 when I selected it in 2001, went over $18 this year, for some dumb reason sold 50% at $6.50 (still great profit, but well.... :( )

Rider Resources 2002 made over 14% in the first month, then got taken over/merged. so for game purposes 14% for one month, still a good/great return.


My two picks this year are

XIU the index beat half the clubs and we can have 20% of the portfolio in it, safe choice. Hard to find value in Big caps, so will take the index of them.

small cap choice CLL trades on the TSX bought it at $1.10 yesterday believe it is at $1.14, has some good properties in Cdn., and half of their production comes from Argentina, that is where the risk comes from in my opinion. Cdn. properties are good, company has about 53 million shares outstanding...counting warrants.

junior oil/gas stock with a chance of 25%+ if everything goes well, if not misery.....

good management and properties. was also looking at CUX/TSX and KVL/TSX, CAZ/TSX, but took CLL.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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Dr. Strangelove do you mean CLL Conacher on TSX, or Carnival in the US CCL.

as for Conacher would wait there is no rush, oil has fallen and people are starting to sell off the seniors. believe downside on CLL is about $1.10 which would make it cheap. currently around $1.44.

believe it trade around this price and have good support unless oil/gas prices fall sharply. Also there is always a chance they turn into a trust if the stock falls or does nothing long enough. then investors would push it up chasing yield in a new trust......nothing new there.....:)

Carnival is at $44 US may top out at $50, earnings $2 04 $2.30-$2.50 05, yield over 1% and the div will slowly be increased. do not own any.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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Forum Member
Jul 16, 1999
2,147
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0
Canada
just like to state I own CLL Conacher, good stock it just may not move stay around $1.44 , the $1.10 is the downside risk, hopefully not where it ends up.

thanks
selkirk
 
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