stocks hot and cold or dead ie. lumber, gold.

[selkirk]

I have missed the move in the home builders and not sure of buying in now, do have holdings in some lumber stocks.

here are some of my holdings :

WFT West Fraser avg price $78, in about two weeks now trades at 88.50cdn. low 40.16 high 89.20. BC lumber producer selling to the US and Asia, yields .63% At $78 I liked it, was going to buy some a week ago in the low 80s. going on a good run.

CFP Canfor this is a longer holding avg. 13-14 price. low 10.14 high 20.41 closed at 20.38 it is also on a great run, like it less than WFT but both are decent options.

US holdings
WY low 18.60 high 31.74 close 30.24 2.25%, own this like the yield and has good momentum. believe could hit 35.

PCL Plum creek Timber. yield 3.43% low 35.43 high 49.79 close 49.18 again trading near a high, this is a longer term holding and a small position. this is my favourite lumber play in the US and like the yield...the positon should be larger, but waiting for pullback...good luck with that.

Gold
okay lumber stocks are making new highs on a daily basis, gold stocks have been dead, and making new lows, underperforming the market by a large degree.
ie.

ABX, G, YRI, Newmont, Eldorado gold midcap, they are all trading near their 52 week lows.

the problems with the sr. and mid cap gold companies is that they cannot maintain production, and production costs are going higher.

mines are costing billions more, ABX Barrick gold had a mine in South America it was going to cost them 3-4 billion, now the street thought maybe higher. but it is now going to be 8-9 billion.

they also bought another development and wrote off 4 billon this purchase was 2010.

the Jr. gold stocks and mining stocks are for the most part dead, they are pulling teeth to raise money just to stay alive.

note : only producer gold I own are YRI (has worked out well, and has growing production. ABX sold two thirds of my position at 32.44. the stock has underperformed, yes it is cheap but wait and see, also hated by the market.

have covered calls, and some uncovered calls, on ABX and yri.

will stay in the lumber stocks as long as they go higher, ie. will reduce positions on 5-10% pullbacks.

will maintain my abx reduced postion and yri postion, will have covered calls on both.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I have missed the move in the home builders and not sure of buying in now, do have holdings in some lumber stocks.

here are some of my holdings :

WFT West Fraser avg price $78, in about two weeks now trades at 88.50cdn. low 40.16 high 89.20. BC lumber producer selling to the US and Asia, yields .63% At $78 I liked it, was going to buy some a week ago in the low 80s. going on a good run.

CFP Canfor this is a longer holding avg. 13-14 price. low 10.14 high 20.41 closed at 20.38 it is also on a great run, like it less than WFT but both are decent options.

US holdings
WY low 18.60 high 31.74 close 30.24 2.25%, own this like the yield and has good momentum. believe could hit 35.

PCL Plum creek Timber. yield 3.43% low 35.43 high 49.79 close 49.18 again trading near a high, this is a longer term holding and a small position. this is my favourite lumber play in the US and like the yield...the positon should be larger, but waiting for pullback...good luck with that.

Gold
okay lumber stocks are making new highs on a daily basis, gold stocks have been dead, and making new lows, underperforming the market by a large degree.
ie.

ABX, G, YRI, Newmont, Eldorado gold midcap, they are all trading near their 52 week lows.

the problems with the sr. and mid cap gold companies is that they cannot maintain production, and production costs are going higher.

mines are costing billions more, ABX Barrick gold had a mine in South America it was going to cost them 3-4 billion, now the street thought maybe higher. but it is now going to be 8-9 billion.

they also bought another development and wrote off 4 billon this purchase was 2010.

the Jr. gold stocks and mining stocks are for the most part dead, they are pulling teeth to raise money just to stay alive.

note : only producer gold I own are YRI (has worked out well, and has growing production. ABX sold two thirds of my position at 32.44. the stock has underperformed, yes it is cheap but wait and see, also hated by the market.

have covered calls, and some uncovered calls, on ABX and yri.

will stay in the lumber stocks as long as they go higher, ie. will reduce positions on 5-10% pullbacks.

will maintain my abx reduced postion and yri postion, will have covered calls on both.

thanks
selkirk

Hey Kirk

The "good luck with that" hits home. Had stock for long time and sold on stop loss of $25 ..believe it was in 03. I intended to buy back if it ever got there again..but never has

Are you ready for spring!

 

[selkirk]

DTB good to hear from you, hope all is well.
have missed some stocks, when they start a run thinking they will come back, most of the time you have a target in your head, though it has improved, sometimes .50 or $1 can cost a lot.

CP which I own, everyone should own a railroad or two, three, ect. they also have had a good run.

anyways Ackman (Herbalife/hegefund fame) bought into took over CP, major shareholder. stock was low $50, bought some, and already have a position. bought was going to increase it, anyways just kept going up, now less than a year $129cdn. some people believe might hit 140 though it is trading more richly than CNR (CNI) which I own more of. just shows what a change in management and momentum can do....

told someone if it is working just hold on, and yet never added to the position pass $60 myself....

looking forward to spring, colder winter than last year, and more snow, snow is good, but not with 40km/h winds.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

Here is an update on the thread since March the lumber stocks have done really well, actually the two cdn. lumbers stock have made a good move and the US ones are flat to down. but still overall very good return.

March 3 - November 8, 2013.
WFT $88.50 $99.62 yield .57% +12.57% not counting div

CFP 13/14 $22.53 +66.88%

WY 30.24 29.30 yield 3.02% -0.925% counting divs

PCL 49.18 44.61 yield 3.94% -6.60% counting divs

overall return 17.19% (four stocks)

actually the return has been better, since I have bigger positons of CFP and WFT.
WFT traded below 80 and then would go to 85 then back to 80 ect. kept a core positon and sold 75% of it between 95-97.50. will keep the remaining 25%. as in this bull market this stock should do well.
also traded some between 80 and 85.

CFP just bought some and held it, more of a pulp play, was very cheap.

WY has not moved but is cheap, will sell, and have covered calls against the positon, so it moves 10% up quickly will miss the move past that, a value play.

PCL went down and is an expensive stock, though is a great compnay, have a small position.

housing starts in Asia, US, and Canada will continue to stay positive, supply is constricted. Central banks will keep rates very low and these stocks will do well as the bull runs for the rest of 2013.

WFT and CFP own 25%, of the orignal position. own same amount of positon small positons PCL and WY. sell covered calls on WY so if the stock stays flat and div should get 15-20% return. downside, if it moves 10% or more in 3-4 months will not get the upside pass 10%.

still ignore gold stocks, some are dirt cheap, but no one cares, when they rally there will be plenty of time to buy. sold abx and still have yri, and have covered call on yri which is very good (premiums).

thanks
selkirk