Had an easy winner last night with WV trouncing Cinncy. Trying to hit another big one tonight.
This line says to me that the books are definitely looking for Boise St. money. Every write-up and all the stat analysis points to it being a close game, so I really don't see a justification for this high line. The one thing that does jump out at me is that the Boise St. QB has thrown 15TDs and 10 Ints, while the Fresno QB has done a much better job of protecting the ball, throwing for 16TDs but only 4 INTs. Fresno St. also has a deceptively good defense. Even though the stats don't scream out "dominating" (189 yds/game passing allowed and 118 yds/game rushing) they are nevertheless holding opponents to under 16 points per game. While I expect Boise to put up more than that tonight, I also think they will turn the ball over a couple times and that will cost them in the end. I also really like the fact that Fresno's offense is very balanced (223 yds/game through the air and 185 yds/game on the ground) which will make it very challenging for Boise.
More than anything, though, this is just a gut play where I see a team with a 31 game conference winning streak as a double digit dog and think there's gotta be a reason for it. Think Fresno gets off to an early lead, then starts to control the clock and slowly pulls away in the 2nd half for a 14-17 point win.
Fresno -9.5 (5 units)
GL all!
This line says to me that the books are definitely looking for Boise St. money. Every write-up and all the stat analysis points to it being a close game, so I really don't see a justification for this high line. The one thing that does jump out at me is that the Boise St. QB has thrown 15TDs and 10 Ints, while the Fresno QB has done a much better job of protecting the ball, throwing for 16TDs but only 4 INTs. Fresno St. also has a deceptively good defense. Even though the stats don't scream out "dominating" (189 yds/game passing allowed and 118 yds/game rushing) they are nevertheless holding opponents to under 16 points per game. While I expect Boise to put up more than that tonight, I also think they will turn the ball over a couple times and that will cost them in the end. I also really like the fact that Fresno's offense is very balanced (223 yds/game through the air and 185 yds/game on the ground) which will make it very challenging for Boise.
More than anything, though, this is just a gut play where I see a team with a 31 game conference winning streak as a double digit dog and think there's gotta be a reason for it. Think Fresno gets off to an early lead, then starts to control the clock and slowly pulls away in the 2nd half for a 14-17 point win.
Fresno -9.5 (5 units)
GL all!
