Allegedly, there is a trend whereby the team with the tougher strength of schedule (minimum of 5 slots in the ranking of 1-32) has done very well against the spread (better than 60%). This apparently only applies for the first round.
I did a couple of google searches to find some easy-grab numbers to back this up or refute it, but that was unsuccessful. Anecdotal evidence is all I could provide. I sure don't want to try to calculate this myself and, besides, I suspect that this is a meaningless trend and each game should be viewed on a case-by-case basis. Still, it may be interesting food for thought.
Power rankings for wild card matchups follow (lower number=tougher schedule):
#'s from: sagarin, teamrankings, powerrankingsdguru
bills 29, 28, 31
Texans 7, 5, 7
titans 23, 22, 24
Patriots 30, 25, 32
vikings 24, 17, 26
Saints 13, 8, 13
seahawks 1, 1, 1
Eagles 32, 29, 29
Mr. Askew in that Seahawks-Eagles match. Very tough call with the M.A.S.H. unit situation for both sides. I think that the Eagles have the mojo, currently, but that the Seahawks definitely have the better overall talent.
Saints disparity looks great, too, though I already hold the belief that the Saints will be having some purple for lunch come Sunday.
Small edge (on trend) for the Titans but appears rather high variance as Pats in Foxboro are not a very promising fade option. The +points is appealing as this nutball's belief is that the Titans defensive backs are underrated and a strength of this team. Pats need a ground game and some defensive turnovers or they could crash and burn.
Bills-Texans game is a head-scratcher for me. Pre-wk17 I considered this and figured the Bills with any +points or moneyline dog might be a decent go. Before 2019, however, I believe that Watson was pretty much unbeatable and home, and I am not impressed with the Bills attack. Texans should have a couple of key guys back--Watt (75-100%?) & Fuller (50-75%?)--and a Texans win, realistically, does seem in the cards. Maybe. The current -2.5 is all I could do, right now, despite following and cashing in on some recent Bills underestimations.
My thoughts on the games are what they are. I'm more interested in anyone's consideration of power rankings in the NFL at this stage of the season. I have found that the strength of schedule consideration is imperative for the NCAA games, but I find that common sense might lie to me by exclaiming that strength of schedule is a secondary consideration after a full 16 game season.
I did a couple of google searches to find some easy-grab numbers to back this up or refute it, but that was unsuccessful. Anecdotal evidence is all I could provide. I sure don't want to try to calculate this myself and, besides, I suspect that this is a meaningless trend and each game should be viewed on a case-by-case basis. Still, it may be interesting food for thought.
Power rankings for wild card matchups follow (lower number=tougher schedule):
#'s from: sagarin, teamrankings, powerrankingsdguru
bills 29, 28, 31
Texans 7, 5, 7
titans 23, 22, 24
Patriots 30, 25, 32
vikings 24, 17, 26
Saints 13, 8, 13
seahawks 1, 1, 1
Eagles 32, 29, 29
Mr. Askew in that Seahawks-Eagles match. Very tough call with the M.A.S.H. unit situation for both sides. I think that the Eagles have the mojo, currently, but that the Seahawks definitely have the better overall talent.
Saints disparity looks great, too, though I already hold the belief that the Saints will be having some purple for lunch come Sunday.
Small edge (on trend) for the Titans but appears rather high variance as Pats in Foxboro are not a very promising fade option. The +points is appealing as this nutball's belief is that the Titans defensive backs are underrated and a strength of this team. Pats need a ground game and some defensive turnovers or they could crash and burn.
Bills-Texans game is a head-scratcher for me. Pre-wk17 I considered this and figured the Bills with any +points or moneyline dog might be a decent go. Before 2019, however, I believe that Watson was pretty much unbeatable and home, and I am not impressed with the Bills attack. Texans should have a couple of key guys back--Watt (75-100%?) & Fuller (50-75%?)--and a Texans win, realistically, does seem in the cards. Maybe. The current -2.5 is all I could do, right now, despite following and cashing in on some recent Bills underestimations.
My thoughts on the games are what they are. I'm more interested in anyone's consideration of power rankings in the NFL at this stage of the season. I have found that the strength of schedule consideration is imperative for the NCAA games, but I find that common sense might lie to me by exclaiming that strength of schedule is a secondary consideration after a full 16 game season.
