These figures may or may not match the way the NFL calculates strength of schedule. The way I do it, I add up the # of wins each opponent for a given team had the previous season. It's not the most-scientific method, but it gives a good approximation of the overall average quality of the upcoming year's opponents. It does not take into account things like personnel or coaching changes, injuries, etc
A strength of schedule of 128 is average (8 wins x 16 opponents). Anything in the 110-119 range is a very soft schedule. Values in the upper 130's indicate a difficult schedule. Occasionally a team will have a SoS in the mid-140's....which indicates a killer schedule full of top teams.
The columns are as follows:
1) Team name
2) 2000 wins
3) 2001 wins
4) 2001 Projected strength of schedule (going into the season, how difficult the schedule appeared to be)
5) 2001 Actual strength of schedule (after the season was over, totalling up how many wins each team's opponents actually had)
There's a strong co-relation between whether a team improved/got worse, and what the Actual strength of schedule really was. Unfortunately, it's hard to tell which Projected strengths of schedule will prove to be accurate.
Last year the most difficult schedules went to Detroit (149) and Carolina (147). Maybe not surprising they had such abysmal seasons. The softest schedules were had by Pittsburgh (107) and Green Bay (111). And both of them showed huge improvement. (Both also crapped out come playoff time when competition improved, go figure).
Of course, the argument can be made that Detroit and Carolina helped make their SoS higher by losing all the time, thus adding wins to their opponent's totals...chicken or egg argument...
St Louis: 10, 14, 131, 121
Pittsburgh: 9, 13, 132, 107
Chicago: 5, 13, 125, 119
Green Bay: 9, 12, 136, 111
San Fran: 6, 12, 130, 119
New England: 5, 11, 126, 115
Miami: 11, 11, 133, 128
Philly: 11, 11, 119, 124
Oakland: 12, 10, 124, 120
NY Jets: 9, 10, 133, 131
Baltimore: 12, 10, 128, 131
Tampa Bay: 10, 9, 142, 137
Seattle: 6, 9, 127, 116
Denver: 11, 8, 118, 125
Washington: 8, 8, 118, 121
Atlanta: 4, 7, 122, 136
Cleveland: 3, 7, 125, 136
Arizona: 3, 7, 128, 114
Tennessee: 13, 7, 132, 133
New Orleans: 10, 7, 127, 127
NY Giants: 12, 7, 130, 133
Jacksonville: 7, 6, 128, 134
Indianapolis: 10, 6, 138, 144
Cincinnati: 4, 6, 127, 136
Kansas City: 7, 6, 129, 132
Dallas: 5, 5, 127, 128
Minnesota: 11, 5, 147, 134
San Diego: 1, 5, 119, 124
Buffalo: 8, 3, 102, 136
Detroit: 9, 2, 123, 149
Carolina: 7, 1, 124, 147
The better of the teams' two seasons is in BOLD. Also, if the actual Strength of Schedule varied from the norm (128) by 10 points or more, it too is in BOLD.
Note improvements from Atlanta, Cleveland and Cincinnati, despite harder-than-average schedules. These teams are maybe on the upswing?
Finally, a list of this year's Projected Strength of Schedule, which as you can see from above is reliable only some of the time....
San Fran: 139
St Louis: 138
Seattle: 138
Kansas City: 136
San Diego: 135
Buffalo: 135
Oakland: 135
Denver: 135
Arizona: 133
Detroit: 131
Washington: 130
New England: 129
Minnesota: 129
Philadelphia: 127
Carolina: 126
Miami: 125
NY Giants: 125
NY Jets: 124
Tampa Bay: 123
Chicago: 122
New Orleans: 122
Cleveland: 121
Tennessee: 120
Indianapolis: 120
Dallas: 120
Green Bay: 119
Baltimore: 118
Atlanta: 118
Jacksonville: 117
Cincinnati: 115
Pittsburgh: 114
Houston: 113
(For the purposes of calculation for this season, Houston was given an approximation record of 4-12 for last year)
A strength of schedule of 128 is average (8 wins x 16 opponents). Anything in the 110-119 range is a very soft schedule. Values in the upper 130's indicate a difficult schedule. Occasionally a team will have a SoS in the mid-140's....which indicates a killer schedule full of top teams.
The columns are as follows:
1) Team name
2) 2000 wins
3) 2001 wins
4) 2001 Projected strength of schedule (going into the season, how difficult the schedule appeared to be)
5) 2001 Actual strength of schedule (after the season was over, totalling up how many wins each team's opponents actually had)
There's a strong co-relation between whether a team improved/got worse, and what the Actual strength of schedule really was. Unfortunately, it's hard to tell which Projected strengths of schedule will prove to be accurate.
Last year the most difficult schedules went to Detroit (149) and Carolina (147). Maybe not surprising they had such abysmal seasons. The softest schedules were had by Pittsburgh (107) and Green Bay (111). And both of them showed huge improvement. (Both also crapped out come playoff time when competition improved, go figure).
Of course, the argument can be made that Detroit and Carolina helped make their SoS higher by losing all the time, thus adding wins to their opponent's totals...chicken or egg argument...
St Louis: 10, 14, 131, 121
Pittsburgh: 9, 13, 132, 107
Chicago: 5, 13, 125, 119
Green Bay: 9, 12, 136, 111
San Fran: 6, 12, 130, 119
New England: 5, 11, 126, 115
Miami: 11, 11, 133, 128
Philly: 11, 11, 119, 124
Oakland: 12, 10, 124, 120
NY Jets: 9, 10, 133, 131
Baltimore: 12, 10, 128, 131
Tampa Bay: 10, 9, 142, 137
Seattle: 6, 9, 127, 116
Denver: 11, 8, 118, 125
Washington: 8, 8, 118, 121
Atlanta: 4, 7, 122, 136
Cleveland: 3, 7, 125, 136
Arizona: 3, 7, 128, 114
Tennessee: 13, 7, 132, 133
New Orleans: 10, 7, 127, 127
NY Giants: 12, 7, 130, 133
Jacksonville: 7, 6, 128, 134
Indianapolis: 10, 6, 138, 144
Cincinnati: 4, 6, 127, 136
Kansas City: 7, 6, 129, 132
Dallas: 5, 5, 127, 128
Minnesota: 11, 5, 147, 134
San Diego: 1, 5, 119, 124
Buffalo: 8, 3, 102, 136
Detroit: 9, 2, 123, 149
Carolina: 7, 1, 124, 147
The better of the teams' two seasons is in BOLD. Also, if the actual Strength of Schedule varied from the norm (128) by 10 points or more, it too is in BOLD.
Note improvements from Atlanta, Cleveland and Cincinnati, despite harder-than-average schedules. These teams are maybe on the upswing?
Finally, a list of this year's Projected Strength of Schedule, which as you can see from above is reliable only some of the time....
San Fran: 139
St Louis: 138
Seattle: 138
Kansas City: 136
San Diego: 135
Buffalo: 135
Oakland: 135
Denver: 135
Arizona: 133
Detroit: 131
Washington: 130
New England: 129
Minnesota: 129
Philadelphia: 127
Carolina: 126
Miami: 125
NY Giants: 125
NY Jets: 124
Tampa Bay: 123
Chicago: 122
New Orleans: 122
Cleveland: 121
Tennessee: 120
Indianapolis: 120
Dallas: 120
Green Bay: 119
Baltimore: 118
Atlanta: 118
Jacksonville: 117
Cincinnati: 115
Pittsburgh: 114
Houston: 113
(For the purposes of calculation for this season, Houston was given an approximation record of 4-12 for last year)
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