Strong Bowl Trend

[walleyek]

One of the reasons I enjoy wagering on the bowl games is that most of the time it's intangibles that determine the winner. Usually X's and O's take a back seat to the emotions or situations at hand. One of the strongest historical trends has been this one:

"Play against a bowl team if they suffered a disappointing loss in their final game of the season AND their bowl opponent won their final game. Disappointing loss as defined as either a) favored by 3 or more points but lost straight up, and/or b) leading by more than 10 points but ended up losing the game."

We have a situation that fits this trend on Saturday. It's not Pitt or NC because both teams suffered a disappointing loss. The game is BC-USC. At first glance USC looks like the play on paper. Not so, according to this 73% trend over the last six years. USC was comfortably favored in its last game against AZ, but lost straight up. BC beat Maryland, albeit not impressively - but a win nonetheless makes this a workable model.

BC +7 2 UNITS

 

[TigerPawsSC]

One of the reasons I enjoy wagering on the bowl games is that most of the time it's intangibles that determine the winner. Usually X's and O's take a back seat to the emotions or situations at hand. One of the strongest historical trends has been this one:

"Play against a bowl team if they suffered a disappointing loss in their final game of the season AND their bowl opponent won their final game. Disappointing loss as defined as either a) favored by 3 or more points but lost straight up, and/or b) leading by more than 10 points but ended up losing the game."

We have a situation that fits this trend on Saturday. It's not Pitt or NC because both teams suffered a disappointing loss. The game is BC-USC. At first glance USC looks like the play on paper. Not so, according to this 73% trend over the last six years. USC was comfortably favored in its last game against AZ, but lost straight up. BC beat Maryland, albeit not impressively - but a win nonetheless makes this a workable model.

BC +7 2 UNITS

You seem to have really thought this one out.

BC beat a 2-win Maryland team by 2 points last week. They dropped their previous game by 18 at home to UNC with the ACC Championship game hanging in the balance, eliminating themselves from contention before Clemson could do so.

But...uhh...yeah, their 2-point victory over the ACC's worst team their last time out should provide all the confidence you need because it slots this game right into the losing 27% of a model.

The only people picking BC in this game are people who haven't seen BC play against quality competition this year. Period.

The three times they played a good team, they got plowed. VT, UNC, and Clemson all lambasted them. USC is better than all of those teams, save maybe Virginia Tech.

Intangibles? Where were they when BC had to beat UNC to keep their championship hopes alive? That's right, I remember. They went away when the right arm of their true freshman quarterback kept throwing the ball to guys in white jerseys.

 

[Destructor D]

Intangibles favor BC which is the reason I'm leaning this way. If McKnight plays, I expect this number to go up which is the reason I'm waiting for 7.5 or better.

BC is 8-1 SU their last 9 bowl games. Tough to ignore the fact BC is excited and USC ???

 

[bryanz]

You seem to have really thought this one out.

BC beat a 2-win Maryland team by 2 points last week. They dropped their previous game by 18 at home to UNC with the ACC Championship game hanging in the balance, eliminating themselves from contention before Clemson could do so.

But...uhh...yeah, their 2-point victory over the ACC's worst team their last time out should provide all the confidence you need because it slots this game right into the losing 27% of a model.

The only people picking BC in this game are people who haven't seen BC play against quality competition this year. Period.

The three times they played a good team, they got plowed. VT, UNC, and Clemson all lambasted them. USC is better than all of those teams, save maybe Virginia Tech.

Intangibles? Where were they when BC had to beat UNC to keep their championship hopes alive? That's right, I remember. They went away when the right arm of their true freshman quarterback kept throwing the ball to guys in white jerseys.

you can't qualify, USC as quality competition with their fresman qb & his #'s... these teams are very similar !

 

[bryanz]

One of the reasons I enjoy wagering on the bowl games is that most of the time it's intangibles that determine the winner. Usually X's and O's take a back seat to the emotions or situations at hand. One of the strongest historical trends has been this one:

"Play against a bowl team if they suffered a disappointing loss in their final game of the season AND their bowl opponent won their final game. Disappointing loss as defined as either a) favored by 3 or more points but lost straight up, and/or b) leading by more than 10 points but ended up losing the game."

We have a situation that fits this trend on Saturday. It's not Pitt or NC because both teams suffered a disappointing loss. The game is BC-USC. At first glance USC looks like the play on paper. Not so, according to this 73% trend over the last six years. USC was comfortably favored in its last game against AZ, but lost straight up. BC beat Maryland, albeit not impressively - but a win nonetheless makes this a workable model.

BC +7 2 UNITS

I would not over look, 2 devastating losses for PITT to end their season... would be shocked if dave has his crew ready to play to win the game ... forget your system don't pass up NC !!! I'll take USC & the two dogs .....

 

[ferdville]

Trends, trends, trends. Here we go -

USC is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
The average score was USC 18.0, OPPONENT 18.1

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(43-17 since 1992.)

Trends say BC is high percentage winner, right?

Except for the fact that - USC is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games since 1992.
The average score was USC 32.6, OPPONENT 19.1

Or....Carroll is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest as the coach of USC.
The average score was USC 39.0, OPPONENT 17.6

Or....Carroll is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a loss by 6 or less points as the coach of USC.
The average score was USC 34.5, OPPONENT 16.7

And this can go on and on - thus the beauty of trends.

 

[walleyek]

Throw the trends and BS out during bowl season. Wasn't Fresno a big fav to beat Wyoming? How about Nevada? Yes, BC is a poor team. But so was Marshall all season and they just beat Ohio. USC has no reason to be excited about their game tonight. I love BC +7 1/2.

 

[HUDSON]

I'm on SC here...lots of $$ on BC in this one. Line opened up 9 and is now down to 7. Might go up a little by gametime. BC has struggled to score away from home this season.

 

[TigerPawsSC]

Betting on BC = burning your money.

They just aren't good. Have shown that every time they've played a team with a pulse this season.