Thanks and you may be right, but this is what I was thinking:
Before conference play, I?m really just betting on whether I personally think teams are over- or under-rated. Once conference play starts, but before enough games have been played to really see how things stand in a conference, I look for spreads that I think are way off. Really, its just my attempt to correct Sagarin Predictors for bad starting data until they become unbiased in another week or two.
Vandy +15. The starting place for the spread is Georgia -9.
Injuries - None that I am aware of that would have impacted previous games, so no adjustment.
HFA - Between the hedges is a tough place to play, for big-name teams, in nationally televised games, in November? No adjustment.
Expectations ? Vandy lost its first, so maybe they?ll be flat. But wait, Bobby Johnson managed to convince them to play well enough to get to 5-0, so he?ll have them right back up and on their game. And what about Georgia? Coming off of a victory against the hated Vols, they?re due for a letdown in this classic sandwich game as they look head to LSU. But Richt knows their only chance to get back in the hunt is to win impressively from here on out. Blah, blah, blah. No adjustment here.
Reputation ? Georgia has a positive reputation as a talented team who needs to and is capable of playing at a high enough level to win the SEC East. Their recent history has been, in general, impressive. Vandy has a history of being one of the 2 doormats of the SEC, and I doubt many folks feel that Vandy has turned the corner ? if they don?t fall back to earth this year, they probably will next year, etc. I?d say that this is where the additional points come from. Georgia?s predictor still reflects weeks at the top of the polls, so it is probably inflated. Vandy?s still reflects expectations of another mediocre year, so it is probably low.
Based on all of this, I feel that I am getting at least a touchdown more than I should by taking Vandy.
Nebraska -5?. The starting place for the spread is Nebraska -11.
Injuries - None that I am aware of that would have impacted previous games, so no adjustment.
HFA - No adjustment.
Expectations - I suspect that Pelini will use the Texas Tech game to try to convince his team that they are at the corner, they just need to turn it. I think it will work, but who knows. I give Nebraska a little credit for this, but not much. Other than that, and corn subsidies, I am not aware of any expectations for either of these team and their fans.
Reputation - I think Nebraska?s awful performances over the last few years really have folks lining up to jump on them while they are down. I suspect their predictor is a little low, as they have lost the last 2 weeks to pretty good teams, and the blow-out loss to Mizzou particularly hurts it. I am not aware of anything on the Cyclone side that would apply. I think that this is the source of the reduction in spread.
Based on all of this, I feel that I am giving up about a touchdown less than I should by taking Nebraska.
It is also worthwhile to note that this methodology produced a 7-9-1 record last week.
