Last Week: 3-3-1
YTD: 42-30-3
This week's sides, taken Sunday evening. The number in parentheses is the current line.
TCU -1' (-2)
Oklahoma -25 (-27)
Alabama -2' (-3')
Virginia +3' (+4)
Duke -5' (-3')
Memphis -1 (-2)
Oregon St -6' (-8)
Oklahoma St +3' (+3)
Georgia -9' (-10')
I am only doing sides for purposes of my record, but here is a total I took and why, that will not be counted:
Arkansas State at FIU
Arkansas State has been very efficient at turning possessions into points during conference play. The FIU defense they?ll be facing is similar to and slightly worse than the MTSU defense they faced earlier and scored 31 against. They passed a ton against ULL (scored 23) and therefore got in more plays than they normally would (should) have and ran a boatload against ULM (scored 37) just because they could. They should run EXACTLY 65 offensive plays against FIU, but of course they won?t. Even so, they should score 29 (2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, 2 FG and 1/3 of a defensive TD, if you must know, but it makes the game less interesting since you now know what is going to happen).
The great thing about FIU is that the Sagarin ratings seem to have them pegged precisely. Linear regression shows that they will score precisely 26.19463 points. Working from my usual angle of predicting points based on plays run and yards gained against conference opponents, I come up with 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD and a defensive/ST score, adjusted down for one INT. The prediction of 26 is fine for me.
The implied spread is then Arkansas State -2 ? too close to the actual line to bother with. The total, though, projects to 55. As I write this, the total is 51?, making it worth looking at.
I took Over 51 yesterday.
YTD: 42-30-3
This week's sides, taken Sunday evening. The number in parentheses is the current line.
TCU -1' (-2)
Oklahoma -25 (-27)
Alabama -2' (-3')
Virginia +3' (+4)
Duke -5' (-3')
Memphis -1 (-2)
Oregon St -6' (-8)
Oklahoma St +3' (+3)
Georgia -9' (-10')
I am only doing sides for purposes of my record, but here is a total I took and why, that will not be counted:
Arkansas State at FIU
Arkansas State has been very efficient at turning possessions into points during conference play. The FIU defense they?ll be facing is similar to and slightly worse than the MTSU defense they faced earlier and scored 31 against. They passed a ton against ULL (scored 23) and therefore got in more plays than they normally would (should) have and ran a boatload against ULM (scored 37) just because they could. They should run EXACTLY 65 offensive plays against FIU, but of course they won?t. Even so, they should score 29 (2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, 2 FG and 1/3 of a defensive TD, if you must know, but it makes the game less interesting since you now know what is going to happen).
The great thing about FIU is that the Sagarin ratings seem to have them pegged precisely. Linear regression shows that they will score precisely 26.19463 points. Working from my usual angle of predicting points based on plays run and yards gained against conference opponents, I come up with 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD and a defensive/ST score, adjusted down for one INT. The prediction of 26 is fine for me.
The implied spread is then Arkansas State -2 ? too close to the actual line to bother with. The total, though, projects to 55. As I write this, the total is 51?, making it worth looking at.
I took Over 51 yesterday.
