Stupid Play Of The Week is a weekly thread aimed at finding contrarian plays in the NFL. It has been running on several boards since 1998, and has amassed a solid ATS record in excess of 60% during that time. Hope the members here will find that worth pursuing.
You're invited to participate if and only if you're a systematic handicapper. The more sophisticated your system the better -- players using models, stat formulas and simulations have done better than players using angles or trends. However, the only requirement is that your method presents you with a list of teams that are possible plays from which you then winnow out your final wagers for the week. Your SPTW is the team that you're not going to play, or will play only with deep misgivings. Our theory is that undesireable sides that nonetheless have enough going for them to qualify under a system devised by a reasonably sophisticated player are the best values on the board.
So, if you're an intuitive or subjective handicapper, please sit this one out. Otherwise, if your system wants you to play a team where you you think you know better -- whether because you have to take the worst of a move, or because the team is just too ugly, or whatever -- please post your team below. If opposite sides of a game are posted, that game doesn't play. Results from the previous week and a year-to-date update will be posted each week. Thanks in advance for your help, and good luck.
Last Week: 0-0
Year To Date: 0-0
1998-2000: 123-80 60.6%
You're invited to participate if and only if you're a systematic handicapper. The more sophisticated your system the better -- players using models, stat formulas and simulations have done better than players using angles or trends. However, the only requirement is that your method presents you with a list of teams that are possible plays from which you then winnow out your final wagers for the week. Your SPTW is the team that you're not going to play, or will play only with deep misgivings. Our theory is that undesireable sides that nonetheless have enough going for them to qualify under a system devised by a reasonably sophisticated player are the best values on the board.
So, if you're an intuitive or subjective handicapper, please sit this one out. Otherwise, if your system wants you to play a team where you you think you know better -- whether because you have to take the worst of a move, or because the team is just too ugly, or whatever -- please post your team below. If opposite sides of a game are posted, that game doesn't play. Results from the previous week and a year-to-date update will be posted each week. Thanks in advance for your help, and good luck.
Last Week: 0-0
Year To Date: 0-0
1998-2000: 123-80 60.6%
