Stupid Play Of The Week

[count zero]

Rough start last week, but the long-term record is good, hope those who are interested will keep contributing. Remember, this is for strict system players only -- you run your system, whether it be a computer model, a set of statistical formulas, whatever -- and then you play the teams your system spits out. If you don't use a system, or use systems only casually, please sit this one out. For you system players, we're looking for the pick you're too scared to pull the trigger on, the team your system comes up with that you don't want to play. The SPTW theory is that these are the best possible value bets: teams selected by a sophisticated, successful (or you wouldn't still be using it, right?) method that are sure to be getting a few extra points from the linemaker.

This is running here and on another board. I grade the combined consensus, less any games where opposite sides are picked. No parlays, no teasers, no college teams. Thanks for your contribution, and good luck.

Last Week: 1-4
Year To Date: 1-4
1998-2000: 124-84 59.6%

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

New Eng(+12)

Patriots actually allow fewer ppg, which may indicate live dog. Huge diff in offenses, w/ no Bledsoe, push this # through the roof.

GO, pats. GL, all.

 

[spanky2]

Solid 2 team teasers
1. New eng. +19 andUNDER WASH @43
2.New Eng.+19 and UNDERSt, Louis @ 51
3.New.Eng.+19 and Under ,New.Eng @52
4'Pitt.+4 and under pitt/Buff. @42.5
5.New eng.+19 and UNDER DENVER @49
6.New Eng. +19 and S.Diego +1/2
7'Under N.Y.G.@44 and UNDER Raid/ Seat.@46
8.Philly Under andDallas Under @42
Love 'em ,hate 'em,BUT I think the progression of NFL fits right in here ..BE back tomorrow for shit or 'welcome mat'!!! $$10 from each ticket will go to CANADIAN RED CROSS SOCIRTY for the 26 Canadians "missing".Mrs. SPanky and I have donated2 weeks ago to the American effort.It is NOW time for ALL Canadians to step up, as our ass-hole Prime Minister is incapable of a thought process ..HEALTH and WISHES to ALL AFFECTED by this TERROR!!!!Spanky and FAMILY>>>
WOW!!!! LET EM KEEP on rollin...Huge!!!

[This message has been edited by spanky2 (edited 09-30-2001).]

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

What Count Zero is looking for is picks from "a computer model, or a set of statistical formulas" . Picks that you are picking because you are being contrarian or have a feeling about how things are going to turn out belong in another thread. It is the only way that this system will work.

Thanks for trying to do this CZ, but I don't think that there are a lot of strict statistical players here.

[This message has been edited by BobbyBlueChip (edited 09-30-2001).]

[This message has been edited by BobbyBlueChip (edited 09-30-2001).]

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I do have a statistical indicator. Didn't state it quite explicitly.

Home Dogs which are <.500 ATS YTD and allowed 13 or fewer as dog last are 23-7 ATS.

Ergo, Pats are viewed as a lousy team, but actual bring a respectable defense to the table based on last outing imho.

Blue Chip, try not to come off w/ that tinge of criticism. Thx.

GL, all.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Didn't mean to be critical. Saw that you had a live dog due to points allowed. Message was meant for spanky, but I wasn't being critical of him, either. I thought that he misunderstood the purpose of the thread.

If you look at the same thread started last week, it turned to crap pretty quickly.

No offense was intended. GL

 

[spanky2]

cool with me, just my plays on a solid. luck... Spanky........

 

[husvus]

Minnesota Vikings +2.5

Play on Home Team with a total ypr > 1.9 (Off and Def combined)

Last Week 3-0

With all the turmoil in Minny (coaches & players bickering with each other) it'll be mighty hard to pull the trigger on this one!

------------------

Hugh's Views

Make that record last week: 4-0 (Green Bay)

[This message has been edited by husvus (edited 09-30-2001).]

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

BlueChip:

Thx for the msg. Thx for clearin it up. Hope u have a big day.

I do understand the concept of the SPOW. And it's a good one. If a gm fits one's "scientific approach" but looks just too damn ugly from a fan's perspective, it's probably a good SPOW.

And in my mind that makes New England a good play today. Some defensive indicators that point to the Pats, but in the back of your mind, you wonder if you're throwing $ away on this gm.

GL, all.

 

[RticXpress]

JAX minus freaking 9.5

I absolutely hate big chalk

 

[Statman02]

Dallas picked three times by WinPicks program...can't see em scoring on Philly tonight

 

[count zero]

This week's consensus is:

JAX
DAL
NWE
MIN
CAR

Thanks to all for caring about the concept, and good luck.

 

[spanky2]

Just ROLL BABY!!! Getting 19,this COULD BE THE BIGGEST DAY EVER!!!