I watch every SU game and as many Big East games as I can. here is my take on today's SU - Pitt contest
Pitt + 3.5
The key to this game IMHO is rebounding. Pitt devours them and SU does not. SU has no inside presence at all. Freshman Forth is not strong enough to compete under the basket. He is unable to hold any defensive position. Celeck is even worse. Lett at 265 lbs should be able to dictate where he gets the ball for Pitt and own the boards. McNeil should be back for SU after briefly leaving the team last week and may give them some muscle but his minutes had disappeared before he left, hard to see him making a statement here.
SU has lost 4 of 6 and been outrebounded in five of the losses:
tennesee - out rebounded by 18 ..lost by 4
Pitt - out rebounded by 26... lost by 15
VT - out rebounded by 4 ... won by 12
GT - out rebounded by 22 ... lost by 15
Rutgers - out rebounded by 6 ...lost by 6
WV - 37-34 SU favor...won by 12
WV and VT also have poor inside games so SU was able to survive.
SU relies heavily on Williams, Shumpert, and Duany. All three are most comfortable on the outside.Williams wants to hoist up three's but Pitt defends the 3 well ( 30% on the year). If the outside shot is not there, SU does not have the option of getting the ball inside. This hurt them against Rutgers. Their outside shooting went cold in second half and allowed Rugers to make up a DD deficit. Game against WV was alot closer then score indicated. WV was close in last five minutes but could not close the deal.
Pitt getting fffense from variety of players. PG Knight has been spectacular of late. Page is a slasher with 3 point range and Lett is a moose in the lane. Knight's FT shooting is a mystery ( i think he is around 50% for the year) and can hurt when Pitt is the chalk but they are catching points here.
This game is for 1st place in BE west. Dome will be loud and rocking today but Pitt holds BE road wins in BC, GT, and Rutgers ( becoming a difficut place for visitors). SU is on a 0-7 ATS slide. Pitt has won 3 of 4 with lone loss coming at ND. First game at Pitt was -3 for panthers. line does not seem to be adjusted much for recent performance.
SU could be primed for a good performance. Like teams with veteren ball handlers like Williams and Shumpert playing at home. Boehiem is finely getting the respect he has deserved over the years and does seem to get the most from his team. main problem over the years has been inability to recuit good big men. If they can't hold their own in the paint today then I like Pitt's chances to hang close even if SU is hitting from the outside.
Let's hope that Pitt is patient with the ball and does not get into a track meet. Pound it down inside, take it to the hole, let the fouls add up, and wear the Cuse out. Pitt should own the last 10 minutes of the game if they follow this recipe.
PITT +3.5
Pitt + 3.5
The key to this game IMHO is rebounding. Pitt devours them and SU does not. SU has no inside presence at all. Freshman Forth is not strong enough to compete under the basket. He is unable to hold any defensive position. Celeck is even worse. Lett at 265 lbs should be able to dictate where he gets the ball for Pitt and own the boards. McNeil should be back for SU after briefly leaving the team last week and may give them some muscle but his minutes had disappeared before he left, hard to see him making a statement here.
SU has lost 4 of 6 and been outrebounded in five of the losses:
tennesee - out rebounded by 18 ..lost by 4
Pitt - out rebounded by 26... lost by 15
VT - out rebounded by 4 ... won by 12
GT - out rebounded by 22 ... lost by 15
Rutgers - out rebounded by 6 ...lost by 6
WV - 37-34 SU favor...won by 12
WV and VT also have poor inside games so SU was able to survive.
SU relies heavily on Williams, Shumpert, and Duany. All three are most comfortable on the outside.Williams wants to hoist up three's but Pitt defends the 3 well ( 30% on the year). If the outside shot is not there, SU does not have the option of getting the ball inside. This hurt them against Rutgers. Their outside shooting went cold in second half and allowed Rugers to make up a DD deficit. Game against WV was alot closer then score indicated. WV was close in last five minutes but could not close the deal.
Pitt getting fffense from variety of players. PG Knight has been spectacular of late. Page is a slasher with 3 point range and Lett is a moose in the lane. Knight's FT shooting is a mystery ( i think he is around 50% for the year) and can hurt when Pitt is the chalk but they are catching points here.
This game is for 1st place in BE west. Dome will be loud and rocking today but Pitt holds BE road wins in BC, GT, and Rutgers ( becoming a difficut place for visitors). SU is on a 0-7 ATS slide. Pitt has won 3 of 4 with lone loss coming at ND. First game at Pitt was -3 for panthers. line does not seem to be adjusted much for recent performance.
SU could be primed for a good performance. Like teams with veteren ball handlers like Williams and Shumpert playing at home. Boehiem is finely getting the respect he has deserved over the years and does seem to get the most from his team. main problem over the years has been inability to recuit good big men. If they can't hold their own in the paint today then I like Pitt's chances to hang close even if SU is hitting from the outside.
Let's hope that Pitt is patient with the ball and does not get into a track meet. Pound it down inside, take it to the hole, let the fouls add up, and wear the Cuse out. Pitt should own the last 10 minutes of the game if they follow this recipe.
PITT +3.5
