TRENDS = Events in the past that help predict the future
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ARKANSAS STATE
10-2 off loss < 6 pts
1-10 off win < 6 pts
3-10 off home win
5-12 off SU win
3-8 as fave
11-3 as HD
2-7 non-conf road
4-1 non-conf host
7-3 conf host
8-2 as dog < 14
La Monroe series dog 4-0
La Laf series dog 5-1
5-2 as DD HD
IDAHO
4-10 vs poor defence (allow > 31 ppg)
9-17 as fave; 0-6 as fave > 7
14-8 as RD
1-7 as RF
7-13 as host
11-20 off conf game
5-10 off SU win
N Tex series vis 5-1; 1-4 vs N Tex
MIDDLE TENN STATE
15-8 non-conf
7-3 as RD > 21.5 pts
6-3 vs SEC
5-0 season open (Fla)
5-1 before bye (Ark St)
1-5 after bye (Idaho)
NEW MEXICO STATE
3-11 vs poor offence (score < 17 ppg)
5-14 vs conf; 1-12 as conf fave
0-8 as conf HF
7-0 off road loss > 21 pts
5-14 after 2 or more ATS losses
7-21 as fave
12-20 vs team with lose record
7-1 as dog vs opp < .500
2-9 off SU win
3-6 vs SEC
8-2 home open (Troy St)
New Mex series dog 5-1
9-3 vs UTEP
0-4 vs La Laf; 1-6 before bye
0-4 at N Tex; series dog 3-1
1-5 at Utah St; 3-9 final road
NORTH TEXAS
16-4 off conf game
0-10 after committing no TO?s
10-3 as HF
17-7 as fave
9-1 as conf host
2-9 as RD 12 to 28 pts
8-15 on grass (Tex, Colorado, La Laf, Ark St)
1-7 in 1st of BB road (Colorado)
8-1 final home (Idaho)
TROY STATE
4-7 off SU win
9-5 off SU loss
UL LAFAYETTE
1-6 vs poor offence (avg < 310 ypg)
1-9 off ATS win
2-9 vs team with win record
3-10 in 1st of 2+ road (La Tech, Fla Int?l)
6-1 vs Big 12
9-5-1 as single digit HD
4-0 vs New Mex St
Ark St series dog 5-1
0-6 after bye (N Tex)
La Monroe series vis 7-1; series fave 0-6; 4-9 final road
UL MONROE
8-21 as RD > 21.5 pts; 2-11 as dog > 30
6-1 as RD < 15
9-2 as dog < 9
4-13 non-conf
10-19 off conf game
10-2 off SU conf loss
1-9 as dog off SU win
0-5 in 1st BB away (Aub, Wyo)
2-7 vs SEC
4-7 on turf (Ark, Idaho, N Tex, Midd Tenn)
4-10 after bye (Arkansas)
3-7 in 2nd BB road (Idaho, N Tex)
UTAH STATE
11-21 off ATS loss
2-8 vs good run defence (allow < 120 ypg)
5-10 off home win
9-18 as DD dog
12-22 non-conf
1-8 on road after SU win
4-12 non-conf road (Alabama)
4-8 home opener (Idaho)
8-2 in 1st BB home (Idaho)
4-9 vs Mt West (Utah)
N Tex series vis 5-1
11-4 off bye (Mid Tenn)
10-3 vs New Mex St.
I have put together similar ?cheat? sheets for myself the last couple of seasons and find it easier to have them all handy rather than flip through the various football mags each week.
I?ve tried to include trends that I find relative (but what is relative?) and have used Phil Steele, StatFox and Marc Lawrence mags for these ?cheat? sheets.
The general trends are more or less at the top of each team?s list and then I?ve tried to list the trends in chronological order for each team?s schedule.
All the stats are against the spread, unless otherwise noted.
ARKANSAS STATE
10-2 off loss < 6 pts
1-10 off win < 6 pts
3-10 off home win
5-12 off SU win
3-8 as fave
11-3 as HD
2-7 non-conf road
4-1 non-conf host
7-3 conf host
8-2 as dog < 14
La Monroe series dog 4-0
La Laf series dog 5-1
5-2 as DD HD
IDAHO
4-10 vs poor defence (allow > 31 ppg)
9-17 as fave; 0-6 as fave > 7
14-8 as RD
1-7 as RF
7-13 as host
11-20 off conf game
5-10 off SU win
N Tex series vis 5-1; 1-4 vs N Tex
MIDDLE TENN STATE
15-8 non-conf
7-3 as RD > 21.5 pts
6-3 vs SEC
5-0 season open (Fla)
5-1 before bye (Ark St)
1-5 after bye (Idaho)
NEW MEXICO STATE
3-11 vs poor offence (score < 17 ppg)
5-14 vs conf; 1-12 as conf fave
0-8 as conf HF
7-0 off road loss > 21 pts
5-14 after 2 or more ATS losses
7-21 as fave
12-20 vs team with lose record
7-1 as dog vs opp < .500
2-9 off SU win
3-6 vs SEC
8-2 home open (Troy St)
New Mex series dog 5-1
9-3 vs UTEP
0-4 vs La Laf; 1-6 before bye
0-4 at N Tex; series dog 3-1
1-5 at Utah St; 3-9 final road
NORTH TEXAS
16-4 off conf game
0-10 after committing no TO?s
10-3 as HF
17-7 as fave
9-1 as conf host
2-9 as RD 12 to 28 pts
8-15 on grass (Tex, Colorado, La Laf, Ark St)
1-7 in 1st of BB road (Colorado)
8-1 final home (Idaho)
TROY STATE
4-7 off SU win
9-5 off SU loss
UL LAFAYETTE
1-6 vs poor offence (avg < 310 ypg)
1-9 off ATS win
2-9 vs team with win record
3-10 in 1st of 2+ road (La Tech, Fla Int?l)
6-1 vs Big 12
9-5-1 as single digit HD
4-0 vs New Mex St
Ark St series dog 5-1
0-6 after bye (N Tex)
La Monroe series vis 7-1; series fave 0-6; 4-9 final road
UL MONROE
8-21 as RD > 21.5 pts; 2-11 as dog > 30
6-1 as RD < 15
9-2 as dog < 9
4-13 non-conf
10-19 off conf game
10-2 off SU conf loss
1-9 as dog off SU win
0-5 in 1st BB away (Aub, Wyo)
2-7 vs SEC
4-7 on turf (Ark, Idaho, N Tex, Midd Tenn)
4-10 after bye (Arkansas)
3-7 in 2nd BB road (Idaho, N Tex)
UTAH STATE
11-21 off ATS loss
2-8 vs good run defence (allow < 120 ypg)
5-10 off home win
9-18 as DD dog
12-22 non-conf
1-8 on road after SU win
4-12 non-conf road (Alabama)
4-8 home opener (Idaho)
8-2 in 1st BB home (Idaho)
4-9 vs Mt West (Utah)
N Tex series vis 5-1
11-4 off bye (Mid Tenn)
10-3 vs New Mex St.
