Sun (DU) NRL picks

[Anders]

Those sharp-eyed pundits amongst you will have noticed that in yesterday's write-up, the Raiders v Cowboys game was a Sunday match - got one step ahead of myself. And if you've already played it, relax, I haven't changed my mind, still on the Raiders at -11.5.

Game 6) Newcastle Knights v The Sharks, Marathon Stadium, 13:35 CST
Knights -7.5

Going against the grain here as most punters I expect will be on the home side that is on a roll. The luck that his been favouring them continued last week with a last-second road win over the Raiders when Brett Finch droopped out on the full to hand Andrew Johns the match-winning kick from right in front. For the most part though, the Knights were outplayed by the Sharks in a tense encounter. The 6-2 ATS Knights are always hard to beat at Marathon - 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS this season but the Sharks have revelled on the road. 4-4 ATS, they are 3-1 ATS and SU as road dogs. They will be without halfback Jason Ferris and hooker Dean Treister for this match, with Luke Branighan and Mark Capelin making their first-grade debuts for the Sharks in a hostile environment. But the Knights may be without lock Ben Kennedy, who faces a late fitness test. I think the Sharks can match up well with the Knights forward pack, particularly if Kennedy is out, while the home team also has a habit of letting teams back into games they seem set to dominate - leaving us with the opportunity for a back-door cover. A longshot possibly to finish the weekend (avoiding tomorrow's Warriors v Panthers game like the plague) but one I feel gives us enough value to ..
PLAY SHARKS +7.5

GLTA

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-14-2001).]

 

[AzRusty]

Yes, Anders glad I missed the earlier plays!

Would Raiders still be a play at -13 1/2?
That's the best that I can find at Olympic.
Sounds like a lot of points to me....
And since I don't have a clue what to expect am awaiting your opinion.

Thanks

AzRusty

Randy


[This message has been edited by AzRusty (edited 04-14-2001).]

 

[Cartman88]

AzRusty,

I agree with Anders that the Raiders should cover the spread today, but at -13.5 you are losing alot of the value on offer.

Plenty of games in Rugby League are won by 12 points (2 converted tries) and 13 points (2 converted tries and a field goal). So the difference between -11.5 and -13.5 is fairly significant.

I'm not saying the bet wouldn't win because I think it will, but betting is all about getting value and -13.5 is not really value.

In NFL terms it is like the difference between -6 and -8 which is huge.

In the other game today I am going against Anders and taking the Knights to cover the spread. At home they are always tough to beat and can put up a big score. I feel the Sharks are slightly over-rated and are certainly missing some experience in the team.

Good luck to all.

 

[AzRusty]

Thanks for the answer Cartman. I just couldn't go the - 13 1/2. Thinking in terms of American Football and the fact that my bookie (Olympic) is often a bit or a LOT sharper than I am. I decided to pass.

Thanks!

AzRusty

Blows my mind corresponding to friends in Australia! Really mind-boggling. It is 9:00 PM in Phoenix, AZ (I live in a NW suburb...Surprise) and you guys are already sitting down TOMORROW watching Aussie Football on your tellies!

I hopw the Hawks and the Saints kick some major a**.

AzRusty

 

[Anders]

Gutted ... shattered ....few other words for it..

Two wagers both lost in the dying stages

as the Cowboys snuck a late cover and the Knights snuck in at the death in very controversial circumstances.
How video ref Ian Parnaby failed to rule a try to Jason Stevens in the first half I will never know - correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the benefit of the doubt should go in favour of the "tryscorer" - and then, with two mins left the Knights "score" from a bomb, ref goes upstairs to check it, scorer looks in front of the kicker to me yet with a friggin' TV screen in front of him, Paranaby can't see it, gives it a "ref's call" and he says try

Can't wait to read the comments from Sharks coach John Lang - if I'm furious; imagine his reaction.
Sorry if this sounds like a classic loser's whinge, which in a way it is. But it's been a tough weekend for me and it looked as if we we're going to emerge with a 6-4 finish; instead it gets reversed.
Like my mate Redsfann tells me, yeah, I'll have some cheese with that whine

Big note of thanks here to Cartman too. Sorry Rusty that I wasn't around a PC for your question, but you couldn't have got a better answer. Value is what it's all about and that didn't have it at more than two converted tries. Congrats Cartman; you deserved to get the Knights in and I'm glad you passed Rusty.

Weekend re-cap:

Super 12 - 1-3
NRL - 3-3
Overall - 4-6

Season to Date:

Super 12 - 17-9 (65.39%)
NRL - 18-17 (51.43%)

Overall - 35-26 (57.38%)

On a side note, next week may see me struggle to post much and picks may also be limited. Have the sister and her family come to visit Tue/Wed and then on Friday I go in to hospital for an operation. Just an overnight stay and I'm hoping I'm not too groggy afterwards that I can't watch the Super 12 and NRL matches on Sky that nite

So bear with me. I'm also likely to cut back on the number of Super 12 games I play - four was too many this week as the books get their lines much sharper; bad punting and apologies.
Over and out
Anders

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-15-2001).]

 

[AzRusty]

Good luck with your operation Anders. Hope that you are up and at 'em in no time.

Thanks all for your picks this week. In general this has been a fun forum and a money maker. Can't have a winning weekend every week, I suppose.

I appreciate all of your efforts.

And............as I have told Raymond when he has had a losing day in basketball or baseball. If I play his picks, which I usually do.. I am always grateful win or lose. I consider the picks that people post and that I play to be gifts.

If a person gives you an apple and it has a worm in it...it's still a gift! And you should be appreciative.

So........ I'm grateful for your picks. Worms and all!

Happy Easter to All (It's Easter Sunday here) I know.. you guys are already past that and on to next week.

Good luck

AzRusty

P.S. Anders! Leave that nurse alone!

 

[Cartman88]

Anders,

Good luck with the operation (even if it is minor).

Az Rusty,

If someone gives me an apple with a worm in it, **** em !!

 

[Anders]

Damn Rusty, been readin' my thoughts again. Way I figure it, if I'm up to watching the NRL and Super 12 after the op then I'm definitely "up"

to tryin' out one of the nurses

Endeavouring to ensure next weekend's NRL/Super 12 apples are firm and juicy - like my nurse - LMFAO

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 04-15-2001).]