Sunday 11/18

[Toledo Prophet]

Good afternoon! Longtime lurker, semi-occasional poster.....gonna start posting plays......been doing well with the nfl this year, hopefully I wont jinx myself by posting :142smilie

Here goes:

Cleveland Browns ML -135. 2 units. I've been riding the Browns most of the season, no use in stopping here. Browns are on the top scoring teams in the league, while the Ravens, never a high scoring outfit to begin with, have become worse on offense as the year has progress. I dont think the change to Boller will help, especially with Heap still inactive. Ravens still beat up in the secondary, and the Browns will take advantage. Playing the ML because its not much more expensive than laying the points and the Browns are in new terriroty as a road favorite. I just think Baltimore is done and are headed for the AFC north basement. Maybe they'll be rejuvenated at home, but I am sticking with a team that has been cashing for me most of the season.

Detroit +3. 1 unit. Detroit, New England and Pittsburgh......they dont seem to go together do they? But, they do as these are the only three clubs who are undefeated at home. Detroit is 3-0-1 ATS in those games. Watching them every week, they are indeed a different team at Ford Field this year, and that carries them today. The Giants are a different team every year in the second half of the season. Last four years, the G-Men are 8-24 SU in the season's back half, 8-16 under Coughlin.

Good luck.....might post another play or two as we closer here to kick off still debating.

Either way.....Good luck everyone :toast:

 

[Cie]

GL with those:weed:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Added Miami +10, 1 Unit.....bought the extra half......bookie friend once told me to bet first time starters....never really been a follower of that, but I think Beck will bring some play making ability to Miami.....Fins can run the football and have lost five games by 3 points and a couple others by single digits.......think they keep this close.....technical angle: Phily 1-9 ATS last 10 at home vs AFC teams.

I know Croyle is a first time starter for KC, but the Chiefs have crushed me two weeks in a row.....my rule, if lose two in a row on someone, dont bite the third time.....plus, I have a feeling Peyton may go off today.

Should point out that in the above Lions pick, I bought an extra 1/2 to get +3

Cie......thanks man....good luck to you today too....during the slow times this week, we have to do an open thread on Les Miles.......needless to say he was quite a topic of conversation yesterday in Ann Arbor. :weed:

 

[Cie]

IMO Mich would be better served hiring Rich Rodriguez, Tedford or Ferentz. Of course, I want Les to go to Mich, so that Spurrier can slide into Baton Rouge and assume the chase for further titles:SIB

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adde New Orleans -.5 in the 2H....1 unit.

Just feel this game will still go down to the wire w/ a FG in the end winning.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Late games:

St Loius -3.......Rams have too much offense......like the idea of fading Trent Dilfer.

Dallas/Wash 047.....cant see anything but a shootout here.

7-pt teaser Pitt -2 O34.....Think this game is close. Pitt coming off 3 straight division games, Think they get the win, 20-17.

Good luck.

Browns quit choking!!!!!!!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Well, the Browns game was an easy winner, had it all the way!

It was my only winner of the early games, but it was a double play.

Standing at 2-2-1 with three games going now.

Lions let me down.....Dolphins pushed, should have been a winner, but somehow they got zero points after having a first and goal at the 1. Why didn't they just kick the field goal, they were down two scores anyway. They never really got the ball back after that.....as for the Saints second half play, how worthless are they? Yuck.

Day would be a disaster, but for that Browns game.....what a rollercoaster. Typical Browns game these days.

Doing okay here with the late action , but there is a whole lot of work to do to nail this Dallas over.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adding.....

Dallas -7.5 2H....2 units...Cowboys have outscored 8 of 9 foes this year in second half.....all by 7 or more, six by double digits......only new england has outscored them in the 2H this year.

Line opened at 7, but could not get on it in time before that stinking hook got added......giving it a shot anyway.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Another 2H play.

Steelers -7.5.....1 unit.

A little leary of the hook in this one as well.....Jets played well that half, but they were rested off a bye.....Steelers were predictably a little disinterested early off of three straight division games......They will pull this one out with a dominant second half performance.

Enjoy the rest of the afternoon :toast:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

6-4-1 on the day thanks to winning a pair of double plays.

+16 Bills, 1 Unit.

Just taking a chance here....like division home double digit digs.....who doesn't? Anyway, think the Bills have kind of hit a stride and they stay within range all game long.

Here's a stat I discovered surfing the web......undefeated teams, at 3-0 or better, on the road, after a bye are just 3-12-1 when playing a team off the win.

Lets circle the wagons!!