THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Buffalo (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) at Indianapolis (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
In a week when the starters normally see their most extensive action of the preseason, neither the Bills nor the Colts will have their top quarterback available when they clash in the first game at the sparkling new Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis held Atlanta to just three points over the last three quarters last week, winning 16-9 to cover as a three-point road underdog. The Colts barely won the yardage battle (325-318) and allowed Falcons RB Michael Turner to rip off 113 yards on just four carries, but they forced five turnovers while committing just one. Although Indy has covered in its last two preseason tilts, the Colts are still just 5-11 ATS in preseason play since 2005, including 1-5 ATS at home.
Buffalo fended off Pittsburgh 24-21 last week to cash as a one-point home pup, despite getting outgained by the Steelers, 338-263. QB Trent Edwards had a solid effort, playing just two possessions but capping both with touchdown passes in going 9 of 11 for 104 yards. The Bills have been a middle-of-the-road team in preseason play the past five-plus years, going 10-12 SU (5-6 on the highway). However, they are 13-8-1 ATS in that stretch, including 5-0 ATS in their last five August roadies and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 as an underdog.
The Colts will again be without star QB Peyton Manning (knee), so Jim Sorgi will get the starting nod and is expected to play with the starters the entire first half and perhaps into the third quarter. Jared Lorenzen and Quinn Gray will come on in the second half, and Adam Tafarlis might see some action. Sorgi (7 of 12, 67 yards) led only one scoring drive last week (a field goal) before Gray (8 of 15, 100 yards) entered in the second quarter and also led a field-goal drive.
Edwards (knee) will also sit out this week for the Bills. Coach Dick Jauron said J.P. Losman will get the start and will likely be in with the starters the entire first half. Gilbran Hamdan and Matt Baker will relieve Losman, who mustered just 19 yards on 4 of 5 passing on three possessions last week.
Buffalo has lost four straight Week 3 preseason games (0-4 ATS), while the Colts are on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll in Week 3.
The over has cashed in four of Indianapolis? last six preseason contests. On the flip side, Buffalo has stayed low in its last six August games, and since 2005, the under is on a 10-4 streak for the Bills.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (65-64) at Philadelphia (70-59)
The Phillies look to a complete a three-game sweep of the Dodgers when they send Joe Blanton (1-0, 4.50) to the mound against the Dodgers and Hiroki Kuroda (7-9, 4.50) in a nationally televised affair.
Philadelphia has outscored the Dodgers 17-3 in the first two games, and Charlie Manuel?s club is on a 6-2 roll since getting swept in a four-game series at Los Angeles earlier this month. The Phillies are also on hot streaks of 5-1 at home, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 4-0 on Sundays.
Since taking four straight from Philadelphia, the Dodgers have dropped five of their last seven. They?re also stuck in ruts of 2-8 on the road overall and 2-6 when Kuroda works on the highway. On the bright side, Joe Torre?s club has still won eight of its last 10 against the N.L. East and six of its last seven on Sundays.
The home team has won all six meetings between these clubs this season, and L.A. is now just 8-17 in its last 25 trips to Philadelphia.
Kuroda dominated the Phillies in a 3-1 home win back on Aug. 14, going seven innings and giving up just a run on two hits with no walks and seven strikeouts. However, he followed that up with an 8-3 home loss to the Rockies on Tuesday, surrendering four runs on six hits in six innings. The rookie right-hander has struggled on foreign turf, going 2-7 with a 4.75 ERA in 12 starts.
Blanton has followed up two solid starts (one run, five hits allowed in 14 innings) with a pair of clunkers against the Dodgers and Nationals, allowing four runs in five innings in both contests. Still, the Phillies are 4-2 behind Blanton since trading for the burly right-hander in July, including 2-1 at home, where Blanton has a 3.86 ERA.
The over is 10-4-2 in the last 15 series meetings overall, but the under has cashed in seven of the last nine clashes in Philadelphia. Also, for the Phillies, the under is also on streaks of 8-1-1 at home, 4-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 on Sundays and 25-11-2 against winning teams. The Dodgers? under runs include 4-2 on the road, 11-5 with Kuroda on the hill and 9-2 when Kuroda pitches on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (74-55) at L.A. Angels (78-50)
The Twins hand the ball to their hottest pitcher in the finale of a four-game series at Angel Stadium, as Kevin Slowey (10-8, 3.78) battles Ervin Santana (13-5, 3.39).
After scoring just one run in losing the first two games of the series, the Angels? offense erupted in Saturday?s 7-5 victory, just the team?s third win in its last 10 games. However, Los Angeles still sports positive runs of 16-6 at home, 24-10 against winning teams, 16-8 against right-handed starters and 35-16 when Santana toils at home.
Minnesota saw its four-game winning streak come to a halt last night, but the Twins have still won eight of their last 10 and 12 of their last 16. They?re also on additional hot streaks of 8-2 against the A.L. West, 7-4 on the road, 10-2 when Slowey takes the ball and 4-1 when Slowey works on the highway.
The road team has won five of the seven meetings this year after the host went 7-2 a season ago. Also, Los Angeles is 8-3 in the last 11 battles against Minnesota and 21-8 in the last 29 meetings in Anaheim.
Slowey has given up exactly one earned run in each of his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA during this stretch. On Tuesday at home, he schooled the A?s over seven strong innings, allowing both runs (one earned) on five hits with no walks and 12 strikeouts. However, Slowey is just 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA on the road and 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in day games, and the right-hander has surrendered eight runs (seven earned) on 14 hits in 8 1/3 innings in two career starts against the Angels, including a 5-4 home loss on April 3.
Santana, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts, was outstanding against the Rays on Tuesday, giving up just a run on four hits in seven innings, but he got a no-decision in his team?s 4-2 road loss. In 10 home starts this year, Santana is 4-3 with a 3.54 ERA, and the right-hander has posted a 2.66 ERA in four previous starts versus the Twins.
In this rivalry, the under is 18-10-3 in the last 30 meetings in L.A. The under is also 4-1 in Slowey?s last five starts and 5-2 in Santana?s last seven outings. However, for the Twins, the over is on streaks of 7-2 on the road and 18-5 versus the A.L. West.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
