Three NRL plays for Sunday (Down Under) time.
NRL:
Game 4) Northern Eagles v The Sharks, 13:35 CST.
Eagles $1.80 ML
The 2-4 SU Eagles host the 4-2 SU Sharks with the home side slight favourites. Not sure why. The Eagles are 3-3 ATS this season, 0-1 SU and ATS as a home chalk. Most worringly, they have conceded a whopping 184 points in six games to date (avg 30.7), springing from 30 missed tackles per match. The Sharks have missed 26 tackles per game but have only conceded 116 points (19.3 per game). The Eagles have also averaged just 48% possession this season and only had more ball than their opponents in one of six matches, while the Sharks have achieved a useful 53% rate overall. The Sharks, who only have to travel a short distance across town (Sydney) for the road match, got skipper and fullback David Peachey back last week and he immediately displayed his sharpness and class. This week they welcome the return of tough forward Nathan Long. The Eagles' week began with two of their forwards fighting each other in a pub brawl two days after their pathetic 16-48 loss to the understrength Dragons. I know that everything I've alluded here points to a simple Sharks' win but it isn't that easy - if only
Yet given all those factors, the Sharks should definitely be a 3-4.5 chalk here, so we'll take them as a slight ML dog.
PLAY SHARKS ML $2
Game 5) St George-Illawarra Dragons v Nth Queensland Cowboys, 13:35 CST
Dragons -10.5
Over 44.5 $1.60/Under 44.5 $2.20
A play on the total for a few reasons. The bookies have put the totals standard up from the season-opening 40.5 to, in some cases to 42.5 and in instances like this, to 44.5. That's because rounds 4 and 5 saw a host of overs but I noted Rd 6 went 4/3 @ 40.5 pts, or 3/4 @ 44.5 pts. And while 2 games went into the 60-pt zone, there were also those with tallies like 25, 28 and 34. The Cowboys have "under" appeal, being 2/4 O/U to date while the Dragons are 3/3 - yet this tally has been pushed to 44.5. Maybe it's because of the 48-18 drubbing the Dragons gave the Eagles last Friday, but that performance was certainly out of character for the Dragons who seem likely to again be without key playmaker Trent Barrett. Their "pts for" tally in other matches has been 24, 16, 30, 6, 22. The Cowboys upset the Tigers last wekend in an awful match but their offensive haul is even less impressive - 32, 18, 17, 8, 16, 24. Their two "overs" have been v the woeful Panthers (201 pts against in 6 matches) and the Storm (162 pts against). Here, with little brilliance in either their forward pack or backline (only 4 line breaks per game) but a steady 68% completion rate, they're unlikely to run amok. The Dragons, still with a long injury list, played on emotion and inspiration v the Eagles but may be a bit flatter for this clash. Goalkicking should favour the under too - the Dragons have been unable to settle on a first-choice kicker this season while Cowboys' Julian O'Neill is an inconsistent marksman with a career record under 70%.
PLAY UNDER 44.5 ($2.20)
Game 6) Wests Tigers v Canberra Raiders, 13:35 CST
Tigers ML $2
Over 40.5 $2.20/Under 40.5 $1.60
Same thought process basically as above, although the pts total is back to 40.5 at Centrebet but at a tempting $2.20. The Raiders are 2-4 O/U, with one of their two overs being a tally of 41 pts. The Tigers are 3-3 O/U, although it may be worth noting all 3 unders have come on the road. The Tigers will be desperately keen to show some fortitude after their abysmal showing in the 24-10 loss to the Cowboys last Saturday, which was followed by the distasteful "Hopoate" affair most of you may have heard of by now (if not, see "Pull yer Finger Out" post in General Discussion thread a few days back :eek
. A stiffening of resolve is often first noticed in the approach to defence, as seen in the NBA and NFL. The Tigers are not a flashy team either - their game plan is based on forward hit-ups and immobile standoff John Simon kicking for field position. They are steady but unspectacular without suspended (for drug use) dangermen Ken McGuiness and Craig Field - average a very handy 70% completion rate with just one game under 69% but only average 19.5 pts for per match and 20.3 against. The Raiders are similar - just 106 pts against (avg 17.6 pts) this season. Error rate is relatively low for both teams - Raiders 9 per match, Tigers 10. Schifcoske's goalkicking is a danger to the under; he is very accurate for the Raiders but Simon is hit-and-miss for the Tigers.
PLAY UNDER 42.5 (There should be a number of books who will have this as the points total) down to 40.5
GLTA
NRL:
Game 4) Northern Eagles v The Sharks, 13:35 CST.
Eagles $1.80 ML
The 2-4 SU Eagles host the 4-2 SU Sharks with the home side slight favourites. Not sure why. The Eagles are 3-3 ATS this season, 0-1 SU and ATS as a home chalk. Most worringly, they have conceded a whopping 184 points in six games to date (avg 30.7), springing from 30 missed tackles per match. The Sharks have missed 26 tackles per game but have only conceded 116 points (19.3 per game). The Eagles have also averaged just 48% possession this season and only had more ball than their opponents in one of six matches, while the Sharks have achieved a useful 53% rate overall. The Sharks, who only have to travel a short distance across town (Sydney) for the road match, got skipper and fullback David Peachey back last week and he immediately displayed his sharpness and class. This week they welcome the return of tough forward Nathan Long. The Eagles' week began with two of their forwards fighting each other in a pub brawl two days after their pathetic 16-48 loss to the understrength Dragons. I know that everything I've alluded here points to a simple Sharks' win but it isn't that easy - if only
PLAY SHARKS ML $2
Game 5) St George-Illawarra Dragons v Nth Queensland Cowboys, 13:35 CST
Dragons -10.5
Over 44.5 $1.60/Under 44.5 $2.20
A play on the total for a few reasons. The bookies have put the totals standard up from the season-opening 40.5 to, in some cases to 42.5 and in instances like this, to 44.5. That's because rounds 4 and 5 saw a host of overs but I noted Rd 6 went 4/3 @ 40.5 pts, or 3/4 @ 44.5 pts. And while 2 games went into the 60-pt zone, there were also those with tallies like 25, 28 and 34. The Cowboys have "under" appeal, being 2/4 O/U to date while the Dragons are 3/3 - yet this tally has been pushed to 44.5. Maybe it's because of the 48-18 drubbing the Dragons gave the Eagles last Friday, but that performance was certainly out of character for the Dragons who seem likely to again be without key playmaker Trent Barrett. Their "pts for" tally in other matches has been 24, 16, 30, 6, 22. The Cowboys upset the Tigers last wekend in an awful match but their offensive haul is even less impressive - 32, 18, 17, 8, 16, 24. Their two "overs" have been v the woeful Panthers (201 pts against in 6 matches) and the Storm (162 pts against). Here, with little brilliance in either their forward pack or backline (only 4 line breaks per game) but a steady 68% completion rate, they're unlikely to run amok. The Dragons, still with a long injury list, played on emotion and inspiration v the Eagles but may be a bit flatter for this clash. Goalkicking should favour the under too - the Dragons have been unable to settle on a first-choice kicker this season while Cowboys' Julian O'Neill is an inconsistent marksman with a career record under 70%.
PLAY UNDER 44.5 ($2.20)
Game 6) Wests Tigers v Canberra Raiders, 13:35 CST
Tigers ML $2
Over 40.5 $2.20/Under 40.5 $1.60
Same thought process basically as above, although the pts total is back to 40.5 at Centrebet but at a tempting $2.20. The Raiders are 2-4 O/U, with one of their two overs being a tally of 41 pts. The Tigers are 3-3 O/U, although it may be worth noting all 3 unders have come on the road. The Tigers will be desperately keen to show some fortitude after their abysmal showing in the 24-10 loss to the Cowboys last Saturday, which was followed by the distasteful "Hopoate" affair most of you may have heard of by now (if not, see "Pull yer Finger Out" post in General Discussion thread a few days back :eek
PLAY UNDER 42.5 (There should be a number of books who will have this as the points total) down to 40.5
GLTA
