Sunday in College Hoops

[Tiger]

Yesterday: 7-3
YTD: 55-40

Sunday
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1) Georgetown(+7.5)

The last 5 trips here, the Hoyas are 3-2 S/U with 2 of the wins as 6.5 and 4.5 point underdogs. The 2 losses were both in overtime.

This season, the last 3 times Georgetown has been a dog, they are 3-0 ATS including 2 S/U wins (Notre Dame and Duke). They are 5-2 ATS the last 7 games on the road.

The last 5 times Villanova has been favoured at home, they are 1-4 ATS. There is also the possibility that they might still have a small hangover from the big UConn win earlier this week.

When the stats are filtered for home/road, they show mixed results, with the DFG% actually favouring the Hoyas.

A look at the stats in each team's last 5 games reveals.........................

OFG%
Ggtn.....43.5%
Nova.....40.1%

DFG%
Ggtn......40.7%
Nova.....44.8%


The Hoyas are giving up just 53.8 pts/gm over the last 5 games, and getting 7.5 today. Looks to me to be a solid dog play.


Good luck out there today,
Tiger

 

[no pepper]

Tiger, what do you think about your angle concerning teams who lose their coach, first game out vs. spread. Today you have both Okl St and Indiana on the psycho surge. I remember you playing it when Quin was let go and Mizzou covered against K St. I like Okl St. catching 10 or so myself... GL with your play(s).

 

[The Mover]

Nice day yesterday! Haven't found any 7', pinnacle has it +7 -111. Thought this line would of opened 9-9'. Any thoughts UCLA/USC leaning to USC. GL

 

[Tiger]

no pepper................I do not consider today's game to be the first for the Cowboys with a "new coach". I played Oklahoma State last Monday night at home to Kansas under that angle, as the coaching change had been formally announced before that game. Didn't work out though, as Kansas layed a whooping on em. Big 12 is a tough conference to lay any pts on the road, let alone 8 or 9, but as someone pointed out to me on Monday night, these are not the same Cowboys who have actually been very good for the last few years. It's a no play for me today. GL.

The Mover..........Haven't capped the UCLA/USC game yet, but my first inkling was that 6.5 is a lot of pts. Not sure yet.


Adding
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2)Wake Forest (+3.5)

Dangerous sandwich game for North Carolina here. They are coming off a 20 point comeback win over Gga Tech on Wednesday, a game where they had to push themselves physically and emotionally............and next up have a huge game at NC State this coming Wednesday. They could very well be looking past this Wake Forest team today.

Wake's ATS's numbers are ugly, but they are 10-5 S/U at home, so this will be a fight.

When the stats are filtered, we see some interesting #'s..............

OFG%
UNC road..........45.4%
WF home.........48.7%

DFG%
UNC road.....43.9%
WF home......40.1%


This line also falls into my "fishy" category too. I would have thought it would be lot higher........74% are on the Tar Heels last time I looked.

 

[Tiger]

3) St.Bonaventure (+5.5)

Not sure UMass should be laying points on the road to anyone. They are 10-12 YTD, but a woeful 1-10 S/U on the road. They are also 5-7 ATS on the road.

St. B is only 7-16 YTD, but above .500 at home at 6-5 S/U. They are 5-3 ATS at home.

When the stats are filtered, I see the defences at about even ,but the Bonnies show advantages in OFG%, free throws and on the boards.

This is a live home dog with a very generous 5.5 points.

 

[Tiger]

Georgetown played a solid 58 minutes......too bad the game went 60.

4) Stanford(-3)

Still not an Arizona fan. They are 15-10 YTD, but just 4-7 on the road. They are 8-17 ATS YTD..............5-9 ATS on the road..........1-6 ATS the last 7 on the road.

Stanford is 13-9 YTD and a flashy 9-1 S/U at home. They are 13-7 ATS YTD..........6-3 ATS at home.........6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home.

The filtered stats show a slight lean to Zona in OFG%, and a slight lean to Stanford in O3FG%. Call that a wash. But...................................

Free Throws
Ariz road...............68.3%
Stan home...........80.7%...........these #'s will be a huge factor

DFG%
Ariz road...............47.0%
Stan home.............42.7%

It's a low number to lay with the better team, the hotter team, playing at home where they are 9-1 this year.

 

[IX_Bender]

Went against Zona earlier with Cal.

Like the Stanford play. GL