Under 36.5 Detroit/Carolina
Detroit comes in after getting blown out in Miami last week 49-21. They were able to gain only 257 yards of offense and 15 first downs. They welcome back RB James Stewart, who is probable this week, after they rushed for only 51 yards against the Dolphins. Carolina, who defeated Baltimore 10-7 last week, stuffed the Raven rushing attack, giving up only 77 yards on the ground. Look for Detroit to get Stewart involved in the game early to try and establish a running game that didn?t exist last week. As for Carolina, they ran for 145 yards on the ground against Baltimore while Detroit yielded 182 yards to Miami. As with Detroit, look for Carolina to continue this and get their running game going once again. The quarterbacks, McMahon for Detroit and Peete for Carolina, don?t put fear in too many eyes of defensive backs and won?t be lighting up any scoreboards. The game plan should be conservative with these guys at the helm. Last week, Carolina threw the ball only 19 times and ran it 36 times. Detroit was forced to throw more than they would have liked, since they had to play catch-up and were forced into a lot of 3rd and longs because of no running game. With these teams grinding it out, the clock keeps moving.
When it comes to the passing game, there hadn?t been a lot of protection for the QB. The Lions were sacked 3 times against Miami and they have allowed 3 or more sacks in 15 of their last 17 games going back to last year. McMahon is the starter, but there is a chance that rookie Harrington will see action again as well. Carolina will go with Peete again at quarterback, who played well with 12 completions and a TD. Going back to last year, Carolina has had 16 or fewer points in 11 of their last 17 games.
Tampa Bay -4
The Bucs suffered a tough loss to New Orleans last week in OT. Expect Gruden to get this team ready for the trip to Baltimore this week. Tampa gave up a very high 368 yards to New Orleans, but will be facing a much more pedestrian offense in Baltimore. Led by Chris Redman, the Ravens could only muster 7 points in the first quarter last week against Carolina. Baltimore averaged only 18.5 points per game in 2001 and lost a lot from their offense. Gruden was brought in to help and bolster an anemic offense that averaged less than 20 points per game a year ago. They were able to get 333 yards of total offense last week, not great but better than their average from 2001. Brad Johnson threw the ball 52 times, completing 28 for 278 yards and 2 TD?s. If this is any indication of what?s to come, the offense should be much more productive, especially with the acquisition of Michael Pittman, a very underrated player. He only carried the ball 12 times, but gained 50 yards, a 4.2 yard per carry ratio. The defense is still one of the best but at least they won?t be relied on win the game like in the past. On the other side, Baltimore lost a lot on their defense as well. Gone are LB Sharper, DT?s Siragusa and Adams and DB?s Woodson and Starks. They were able to hold Carolina to 265 yards last week, but the Panthers do not match up the with the Bucs talent wise on offense. Baltimore is in a rebuilding mode while Tampa is looking to finally get further into the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl. The Bucs have St. Louis on tap next week, but with the loss last week, this team will be focused on the game at hand.
New York Jets ? 1.5
New England takes to the road after their emotional win over Pittsburgh on Monday night in their new stadium. The Patriots surprised many by going into a no-huddle offense that worked very well, but will be going back to their normal attack this week. The Jets took the kickoff in overtime and returned it for a TD to defeat Buffalo in a game that they were totally dominated statistically. They lost Curtis Martin early and their offense suffered for it, gaining only 266 yards. Their biggest scoring drive was only 60 yards, which shows how much a healthy Martin means to this team. Martin will play this week and will improve this offense. Defensively, the Bills really put it to New York, gaining 384 yards of offense. The Jet defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes, and with this being the first game, seemed to tire easily. With Martin back in the lineup, ball control is the key to keep the defense fresh. The Patriots benefited from 3 Kordell Stewart interceptions and 13 penalties by the Steelers in their win on Monday. The Pats never got the running game going as they only rushed for 63 yards on 18 carries. But that was the game plan as the Pats wanted to keep the no huddle going, not giving the Steelers a chance to get any of their blitz packages going. They will need to try and run the ball more against the Jets to keep the pressure off of Brady because the Jets will be coming after him. New York held New England to 107 and 73 yards rushing in their two meetings last year so the Patriots will need to improve that number to get things going. The Jets home opener along with the Pats coming off a very big win on Monday makes a good situation to take the home team and lay the short number.
San Francisco ?3.5
This is another situational play more than anything. The Niners coming off a tough win last Thursday and have had an extended week to rest to get ready for this game. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a huge home win against the Rams and now take to the road for San Francisco?s home opener. San Francisco did not have their best offense on Thursday although they moved the ball much better in the second half. They were out yarded by the Giants 361-279 with Jeff Garcia only throwing for 166 yards. Owens was hardly in the mix with only 4 catches. Denver gave up 327 total yards to St. Louis but the rams were only able to convert 3 of 12 third downs. Defensively, the Niners gave up only 43 yards rushing on 22 carries against New York. They will need to pick up their pass defense, which they should do against the erratic Brian Griese. Look for the offense to get it going in their opener against the Broncos, who were 2-6 on the road last year, giving up 27 points per game.
Under 45 Jacksonville/Kansas City
Kansas City amassed 470 yards of offense last week in their 40-39 win over Cleveland, while Jacksonville tallied 343 yards in their loss to Indianapolis. Don?t look for these two teams to come close to those numbers again this week. Last week was the highest scoring opening weekend in NFL history and the lines reflect that this week. The over is one of the biggest public wagers and the books took it on the chin last week. Don?t look for all of that scoring again this week and also, the numbers have been adjusted in case it does happen. Looking at some of the matchups compared to the totals from a year ago (using the totals from last year at the same playing location this week):
Indianapolis/Miami 46.5 vs. 43.5 last year
Chicago/Atlanta 44 vs. 39.5 last year
Cincinnati/Cleveland 38.5 vs. 34.5 last year
New England/New York 42 vs. 37.5 last year
Only the Indy/Miami game went over last year; the other three stayed under.
Jacksonville had only one total that was 45 or higher in 2001, and it stayed under. The Jags were 20th in points last year offensively and 21st in total yards. Last week, they went against an Indy defense that has been near the bottom the last few years. That defense will improve, but it will take some time for the players to get down the new system. The Chiefs got 115 more yards last week than they averaged last year ? a number that should come more in line this week. Feeling here is that this number is adjusted too much due to last week, which presents plenty of value.
GLTA!!
Detroit comes in after getting blown out in Miami last week 49-21. They were able to gain only 257 yards of offense and 15 first downs. They welcome back RB James Stewart, who is probable this week, after they rushed for only 51 yards against the Dolphins. Carolina, who defeated Baltimore 10-7 last week, stuffed the Raven rushing attack, giving up only 77 yards on the ground. Look for Detroit to get Stewart involved in the game early to try and establish a running game that didn?t exist last week. As for Carolina, they ran for 145 yards on the ground against Baltimore while Detroit yielded 182 yards to Miami. As with Detroit, look for Carolina to continue this and get their running game going once again. The quarterbacks, McMahon for Detroit and Peete for Carolina, don?t put fear in too many eyes of defensive backs and won?t be lighting up any scoreboards. The game plan should be conservative with these guys at the helm. Last week, Carolina threw the ball only 19 times and ran it 36 times. Detroit was forced to throw more than they would have liked, since they had to play catch-up and were forced into a lot of 3rd and longs because of no running game. With these teams grinding it out, the clock keeps moving.
When it comes to the passing game, there hadn?t been a lot of protection for the QB. The Lions were sacked 3 times against Miami and they have allowed 3 or more sacks in 15 of their last 17 games going back to last year. McMahon is the starter, but there is a chance that rookie Harrington will see action again as well. Carolina will go with Peete again at quarterback, who played well with 12 completions and a TD. Going back to last year, Carolina has had 16 or fewer points in 11 of their last 17 games.
Tampa Bay -4
The Bucs suffered a tough loss to New Orleans last week in OT. Expect Gruden to get this team ready for the trip to Baltimore this week. Tampa gave up a very high 368 yards to New Orleans, but will be facing a much more pedestrian offense in Baltimore. Led by Chris Redman, the Ravens could only muster 7 points in the first quarter last week against Carolina. Baltimore averaged only 18.5 points per game in 2001 and lost a lot from their offense. Gruden was brought in to help and bolster an anemic offense that averaged less than 20 points per game a year ago. They were able to get 333 yards of total offense last week, not great but better than their average from 2001. Brad Johnson threw the ball 52 times, completing 28 for 278 yards and 2 TD?s. If this is any indication of what?s to come, the offense should be much more productive, especially with the acquisition of Michael Pittman, a very underrated player. He only carried the ball 12 times, but gained 50 yards, a 4.2 yard per carry ratio. The defense is still one of the best but at least they won?t be relied on win the game like in the past. On the other side, Baltimore lost a lot on their defense as well. Gone are LB Sharper, DT?s Siragusa and Adams and DB?s Woodson and Starks. They were able to hold Carolina to 265 yards last week, but the Panthers do not match up the with the Bucs talent wise on offense. Baltimore is in a rebuilding mode while Tampa is looking to finally get further into the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl. The Bucs have St. Louis on tap next week, but with the loss last week, this team will be focused on the game at hand.
New York Jets ? 1.5
New England takes to the road after their emotional win over Pittsburgh on Monday night in their new stadium. The Patriots surprised many by going into a no-huddle offense that worked very well, but will be going back to their normal attack this week. The Jets took the kickoff in overtime and returned it for a TD to defeat Buffalo in a game that they were totally dominated statistically. They lost Curtis Martin early and their offense suffered for it, gaining only 266 yards. Their biggest scoring drive was only 60 yards, which shows how much a healthy Martin means to this team. Martin will play this week and will improve this offense. Defensively, the Bills really put it to New York, gaining 384 yards of offense. The Jet defense was on the field for nearly 40 minutes, and with this being the first game, seemed to tire easily. With Martin back in the lineup, ball control is the key to keep the defense fresh. The Patriots benefited from 3 Kordell Stewart interceptions and 13 penalties by the Steelers in their win on Monday. The Pats never got the running game going as they only rushed for 63 yards on 18 carries. But that was the game plan as the Pats wanted to keep the no huddle going, not giving the Steelers a chance to get any of their blitz packages going. They will need to try and run the ball more against the Jets to keep the pressure off of Brady because the Jets will be coming after him. New York held New England to 107 and 73 yards rushing in their two meetings last year so the Patriots will need to improve that number to get things going. The Jets home opener along with the Pats coming off a very big win on Monday makes a good situation to take the home team and lay the short number.
San Francisco ?3.5
This is another situational play more than anything. The Niners coming off a tough win last Thursday and have had an extended week to rest to get ready for this game. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a huge home win against the Rams and now take to the road for San Francisco?s home opener. San Francisco did not have their best offense on Thursday although they moved the ball much better in the second half. They were out yarded by the Giants 361-279 with Jeff Garcia only throwing for 166 yards. Owens was hardly in the mix with only 4 catches. Denver gave up 327 total yards to St. Louis but the rams were only able to convert 3 of 12 third downs. Defensively, the Niners gave up only 43 yards rushing on 22 carries against New York. They will need to pick up their pass defense, which they should do against the erratic Brian Griese. Look for the offense to get it going in their opener against the Broncos, who were 2-6 on the road last year, giving up 27 points per game.
Under 45 Jacksonville/Kansas City
Kansas City amassed 470 yards of offense last week in their 40-39 win over Cleveland, while Jacksonville tallied 343 yards in their loss to Indianapolis. Don?t look for these two teams to come close to those numbers again this week. Last week was the highest scoring opening weekend in NFL history and the lines reflect that this week. The over is one of the biggest public wagers and the books took it on the chin last week. Don?t look for all of that scoring again this week and also, the numbers have been adjusted in case it does happen. Looking at some of the matchups compared to the totals from a year ago (using the totals from last year at the same playing location this week):
Indianapolis/Miami 46.5 vs. 43.5 last year
Chicago/Atlanta 44 vs. 39.5 last year
Cincinnati/Cleveland 38.5 vs. 34.5 last year
New England/New York 42 vs. 37.5 last year
Only the Indy/Miami game went over last year; the other three stayed under.
Jacksonville had only one total that was 45 or higher in 2001, and it stayed under. The Jags were 20th in points last year offensively and 21st in total yards. Last week, they went against an Indy defense that has been near the bottom the last few years. That defense will improve, but it will take some time for the players to get down the new system. The Chiefs got 115 more yards last week than they averaged last year ? a number that should come more in line this week. Feeling here is that this number is adjusted too much due to last week, which presents plenty of value.
GLTA!!
