Houston +8
This is more of a spot play against Buffalo than anything else, similar to the play two weeks ago against Miami. Buffalo is coming off a big loss at home to Oakland last week and will be traveling to division rival Miami next week. While the Texans offense hasn?t done much this season, they will face a Buffalo defense that ranks 25th in the league, allowing 358 ypg and 36 ppg. The Bills defense also has a league worst 9.96 yppt. Houston is only averaging 194 ypg and 10.5 ppg, but this is an opportunity to muster something and for their defense to keep them close. The Houston defense is a respectable 11th in the league, allowing 316 ypg and 23 ppg. They are averaging 13.74 yppt, near the league average. Drew Bledsoe and the Bills offense have been hitting at all cylinders so far this year, but their running game has been anything but spectacular. They are 27th in the league, only putting 79 ypg on the ground. With the arm of Bledsoe and the receivers of Moulds and Price, running hasn?t been a priority. Expect the Bills to work on that Sunday. With the Dolphins on deck, Buffalo will play pretty pedestrian and not show a whole lot here.
Over 49 Detroit/Minnesota
Two of the worst defenses square off in Minnesota in what should be a high scoring affair. The Lions are allowing 393 ypg and 34.5 ppg and are equally bad against the run and pass and have a very low 11.40 yppt ratio. The pass defense took a hit as FS Brian Walker is listed as doubtful. The Vikings will counter with the 7th ranked offense, averaging 378 ypg and 25 ppg. The strength has been the passing game but so far, the running game has been leading the way with 155 ypg and 5 ypc. This should get Culpepper on track with his passing that is averaging 223 ypg. The Vikings defense is ranked 30th allowing 397 ypg and 35 ppg and their yppt ratio is 11.26. The Lions are only ranked 31st in total offense, averaging 251 ypg and 21 ppg. However, the offense has looked much improved in their last two games against the Packers and Saints. WR?s Az-Zahir Hakim and Bill Schroeder have been upgraded to probable for the game, which will certainly help out rookie Harrington. Basically, the two defenses have shown that they can?t really stop anyone and that shouldn?t change here either. Minnesota is having a very disappointing season thus far, and look for the offense to take some of their frustrations out on the Lions.
St. Louis +9
The number could reach 10 by gametime, as the public should be all over the high-powered Raiders. The Rams are by far the most disappointing team in the league this year but getting this many points at home is some good value. Although they are winless, the Rams still have a lot of talent at key positions. With Warner out, a lot falls on Marc Bulger to get the job done against the 30th ranked Raiders pass defense. Bulger completed 68 percent of his passes for 526 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions during the 2002 pre-season. The Raiders defense is allowing 283 ypg and 22.5 ppg. While the Rams offense isn?t the same without Warner, they weren?t the teams of recent years with him in there either. He was having a difficult year before going down with a finger injury and right now it?s just mental for this team. They are 13th overall in offense, with 343 ypg but are having trouble getting the ball in the endzone. They are converting 33% of their first downs but do have 92 first downs this year, 13th in the league. They will need to slow down the Oakland offense that is averaging 461 ypg but three games have been against Seattle, Tennessee and Buffalo who are 28th, 27th and 25th respectively in total defense. The Rams defense is still solid, ranked 13th, allowing 327 ypg. The Raiders have 2 straight division games on deck with San Diego and Kansas City, so even though this is the Rams, this is a good spot to go against them, especially as such a big favorite on the road.
Under 41.5 Pittsburgh/Cincinnati
This is the highest total posted between these two teams since 1997. Both offenses have had trouble at certain times this year getting points on the board ? Pittsburgh is averaging 19 ppg and Cincinnati is averaging 9 ppg. Cincinnati is averaging a league low (or high depending which way you look at it) 30.20 yppt (yards per point). The NFL average is 14.61. Pittsburgh is just below average at 16.82. Based on those numbers, these teams have trouble finding the endzone as witnessed most notably by the Bengals. While the average NFL 3rd down conversion rate is 39%, Cincinnati is averaging 31% (22-72) and their 72 attempts on third down are the fourth most in the league. Translation ? they can?t finish drives. The Steeler defense has not been up to its normal standards this year, but they have played four of the better offenses in the league and will get a break this week with the Bengals. The defense is ranked 18th, allowing 342 ypg with their strength being their rush defense which is averaging 100 ypg. The Bengals have a very poor passing offense, so they will try to run the ball. They are 19th in the league, averaging 101 ypg. Look for them to get Dillon going since none of the Bengal QB?s can exploit the secondary like New England and Oakland were able to do. On offense, the Steelers are ranked 19th with 320 ypg. They will likely go after the porous run defense of the Bengals that rank 25th in the league, giving up 129 ypg and 4 ypc. Look for both teams to run, thus eating clock and if the past indicates anything, expect field goals over touchdowns.
Under 44 Baltimore/Indianapolis
The line opened at 41.5 and jumped up to 44 with the Lewis injury. Is one man worth 2.5 points to the total? Well Lewis might be? Nevertheless, even 41.5 is appealing here. Baltimore, winners of their last two games, will try to use their strength here against the weak Indianapolis run defense. Baltimore is averaging 14 ypg on the ground, good for 18th in the league while the Colts run defense is giving up 145 ypg and 4.8 ypc, so look for the Ravens to run, run, run. The Indy pass defense is playing well thus far, allowing only 180 ypg. Chris Redman is improving each week, but still needs some work, and better receivers for that matter, to start putting up big numbers. The Indy defense has an 18.56 yppt ratio, which is 7th best in the league. Even with Lewis out, the Raven defense is still a force. They are giving up only 19.8 ppg and have a 17.47 yppt ratio, 9th best in the league. The normally potent Colts offense is ranked 12th overall, averaging 347 ypg and 23 ppg. Both offenses are averaging a higher yppt ratio than the league average ? Baltimore is at 16.43 and Indy is at 15.10. The extra 2.5 points help with the under, although we don?t think they will come into play.
This is more of a spot play against Buffalo than anything else, similar to the play two weeks ago against Miami. Buffalo is coming off a big loss at home to Oakland last week and will be traveling to division rival Miami next week. While the Texans offense hasn?t done much this season, they will face a Buffalo defense that ranks 25th in the league, allowing 358 ypg and 36 ppg. The Bills defense also has a league worst 9.96 yppt. Houston is only averaging 194 ypg and 10.5 ppg, but this is an opportunity to muster something and for their defense to keep them close. The Houston defense is a respectable 11th in the league, allowing 316 ypg and 23 ppg. They are averaging 13.74 yppt, near the league average. Drew Bledsoe and the Bills offense have been hitting at all cylinders so far this year, but their running game has been anything but spectacular. They are 27th in the league, only putting 79 ypg on the ground. With the arm of Bledsoe and the receivers of Moulds and Price, running hasn?t been a priority. Expect the Bills to work on that Sunday. With the Dolphins on deck, Buffalo will play pretty pedestrian and not show a whole lot here.
Over 49 Detroit/Minnesota
Two of the worst defenses square off in Minnesota in what should be a high scoring affair. The Lions are allowing 393 ypg and 34.5 ppg and are equally bad against the run and pass and have a very low 11.40 yppt ratio. The pass defense took a hit as FS Brian Walker is listed as doubtful. The Vikings will counter with the 7th ranked offense, averaging 378 ypg and 25 ppg. The strength has been the passing game but so far, the running game has been leading the way with 155 ypg and 5 ypc. This should get Culpepper on track with his passing that is averaging 223 ypg. The Vikings defense is ranked 30th allowing 397 ypg and 35 ppg and their yppt ratio is 11.26. The Lions are only ranked 31st in total offense, averaging 251 ypg and 21 ppg. However, the offense has looked much improved in their last two games against the Packers and Saints. WR?s Az-Zahir Hakim and Bill Schroeder have been upgraded to probable for the game, which will certainly help out rookie Harrington. Basically, the two defenses have shown that they can?t really stop anyone and that shouldn?t change here either. Minnesota is having a very disappointing season thus far, and look for the offense to take some of their frustrations out on the Lions.
St. Louis +9
The number could reach 10 by gametime, as the public should be all over the high-powered Raiders. The Rams are by far the most disappointing team in the league this year but getting this many points at home is some good value. Although they are winless, the Rams still have a lot of talent at key positions. With Warner out, a lot falls on Marc Bulger to get the job done against the 30th ranked Raiders pass defense. Bulger completed 68 percent of his passes for 526 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions during the 2002 pre-season. The Raiders defense is allowing 283 ypg and 22.5 ppg. While the Rams offense isn?t the same without Warner, they weren?t the teams of recent years with him in there either. He was having a difficult year before going down with a finger injury and right now it?s just mental for this team. They are 13th overall in offense, with 343 ypg but are having trouble getting the ball in the endzone. They are converting 33% of their first downs but do have 92 first downs this year, 13th in the league. They will need to slow down the Oakland offense that is averaging 461 ypg but three games have been against Seattle, Tennessee and Buffalo who are 28th, 27th and 25th respectively in total defense. The Rams defense is still solid, ranked 13th, allowing 327 ypg. The Raiders have 2 straight division games on deck with San Diego and Kansas City, so even though this is the Rams, this is a good spot to go against them, especially as such a big favorite on the road.
Under 41.5 Pittsburgh/Cincinnati
This is the highest total posted between these two teams since 1997. Both offenses have had trouble at certain times this year getting points on the board ? Pittsburgh is averaging 19 ppg and Cincinnati is averaging 9 ppg. Cincinnati is averaging a league low (or high depending which way you look at it) 30.20 yppt (yards per point). The NFL average is 14.61. Pittsburgh is just below average at 16.82. Based on those numbers, these teams have trouble finding the endzone as witnessed most notably by the Bengals. While the average NFL 3rd down conversion rate is 39%, Cincinnati is averaging 31% (22-72) and their 72 attempts on third down are the fourth most in the league. Translation ? they can?t finish drives. The Steeler defense has not been up to its normal standards this year, but they have played four of the better offenses in the league and will get a break this week with the Bengals. The defense is ranked 18th, allowing 342 ypg with their strength being their rush defense which is averaging 100 ypg. The Bengals have a very poor passing offense, so they will try to run the ball. They are 19th in the league, averaging 101 ypg. Look for them to get Dillon going since none of the Bengal QB?s can exploit the secondary like New England and Oakland were able to do. On offense, the Steelers are ranked 19th with 320 ypg. They will likely go after the porous run defense of the Bengals that rank 25th in the league, giving up 129 ypg and 4 ypc. Look for both teams to run, thus eating clock and if the past indicates anything, expect field goals over touchdowns.
Under 44 Baltimore/Indianapolis
The line opened at 41.5 and jumped up to 44 with the Lewis injury. Is one man worth 2.5 points to the total? Well Lewis might be? Nevertheless, even 41.5 is appealing here. Baltimore, winners of their last two games, will try to use their strength here against the weak Indianapolis run defense. Baltimore is averaging 14 ypg on the ground, good for 18th in the league while the Colts run defense is giving up 145 ypg and 4.8 ypc, so look for the Ravens to run, run, run. The Indy pass defense is playing well thus far, allowing only 180 ypg. Chris Redman is improving each week, but still needs some work, and better receivers for that matter, to start putting up big numbers. The Indy defense has an 18.56 yppt ratio, which is 7th best in the league. Even with Lewis out, the Raven defense is still a force. They are giving up only 19.8 ppg and have a 17.47 yppt ratio, 9th best in the league. The normally potent Colts offense is ranked 12th overall, averaging 347 ypg and 23 ppg. Both offenses are averaging a higher yppt ratio than the league average ? Baltimore is at 16.43 and Indy is at 15.10. The extra 2.5 points help with the under, although we don?t think they will come into play.
