Sunday on the College Hardcourt

[Tiger]

Yesterday: 5-2
YTD: 17-20

Sunday
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1) North Carolina State(-2.5)

Don't normally play road favourites, but think these two teams are worlds apart despite their close W/L records.

NC State is 15-4 YTD and had their wake up call this past Wednesday night when they lost to non conference Seton Hall at home in a classic let-down situation. They will be ready to play today. They have beaten Clemson 7 of the last 8 times.

Clemson started the year 11-0 against such competition as Coppin State, Wofford and Puerto Rico Mayaguez, but are only 3-5 in their last 8 since.

NC State has considerable advantages in all key areas, with the most pronounced being..........


O3FG%
NCSt on road.....35.4%
Clem at home....28.9%

FT %
NCSt on road....71.4%
Clem at home.....57.6%.....and don't think this won't be a big factor today!

DFG%
NCSt on road.....40.6%
Clem at home.....43.8%


Clemson has played 1 ranked team, while the Wolfpack has played 5. A good spot for NC State laying a very small number.




2)Central Michigan(+4)

Western Michigan is 7-11, but is a woeful 1-7 S/U on the road. They have won their last 3 overall, but when we take a closer look we see those 3 teams have reocrds of 9-8, 3-13, and 6-10. Before that, they had lost 11 of 14 games.

Central Michigan does not have a sparkling W/L record at just 3-14, but they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, with those 7 being against teams with a collective record 36 games over .500. In fact, their last 10 games have come against teams a collective 48 games over .500, so that W/L record and all stats have been skewed by a very tough sked. Hmmmm.

The key stats..................

OFG%
WM on road.......39.8%
CM at home.....42.0%

O3FG%
WM on road....27.8%
CM at home.....31.5%

DFG%
WM on road.....48.5%....yikes
CM at home 42.2%

D3FG%
WM on road......37.5%
CM at home......34.3%

C.Michigan has beaten W. Michigan here 4 of the last 5 years, with two of those wins coming as an underdog. It's a good spot with a good number for the home dog here.


Good luck out there today,
Tiger

 

[Tiger]

Wow.................2 Overtime games............Could've won em both.......could've lost em both.

I'll be happy to take a win and a push.

Adding:

3)Stanford(+2)

We all know Washington has lost 12 straight here so that's a good place to start. They also have only played 3 true road games TY so that gaudy 16-3 record is a little skewed.

I'm also not sure that they will be over that Cal loss from Thursday night just yet. A team losing a very close game that plays the next one at home has their home crowd to help them get over that hump, but that's not the case when the next game is on the road, like tonight. A lot of time, there will be a hangover effect.

Stanford is 7-1 S/U at home YTD, is 4-0 ATS the last 4 vs the Huskies, and has won their last 4 games at home against ranked teams.

The key stats are basically a wash when filtered for Hm/Rd and most recent games, although the Cardinal show a very important advantage from the charity stripe and didn't that play out in the NC State/Clemson game?

I also tend to think that the line is skewed a little bit towards the Nationally Ranked team on the last game of the weekend as a lot of bettors will be looking to either make up for a bad couple of days or trying to double up after a good weekend. The consensus that I see is just about 2-1 on Washington.


I'm just not convinced that Washington is that much better than Stanford and getting points at home with a team that is 7-1 at home and has beaten this foe 12 straight times here is good enough for me.

GL

 

[jmizeus]

great write-up tiger,
how have you been? think you just made me pull the trigger on this one,liked stanford all day but not enough, the public is all over washington and yes its a late game,where we all know what happens on a late game on sunday when the public is all 1 team.
washington is a good 1h team and i may also go against that trend as well today by taking cards for game and 1h

take care and lets cash this ticket