3:05 PM NHL [2] Winnipeg Jets -160
9:05 PM NHL [14] Edmonton Oilers -160
1:00 PM NFL [259] NE PATRIOTS -6-115
6:05 PM NBA [707] San Antonio Spurs -6.5 -110
12:30 PM SOC [202434] FC Koln -170 over Hamburg SV (GERMANY - BUNDESLIGA) soccer
1 unit bet pays 13 ....betdsi line
K?ln is hungry to bounce back after their first lost of the season, now at home (unbeaten last 7 there) vs a team at the bottom of the table, missing thier captain and Emir Spahic...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Toronto @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
Toronto +160 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. According to the Sagarin ratings, Toronto has played the toughest schedule in the NHL and yet they are outplaying almost every team they face. Only once have the Maple Leafs lost the battle of high quality scoring chances. They have unfortunately run into a slew of hot goaltenders, including Carey Price last night in a game the Leafs were clearly the better team in. Toronto ranks high in every metric for and against and it?s only a matter of time until they start paying off. The Leafs are taking back a big price here for two reasons. First, their record is unimpressive but anyone that watches this game understands how dangerous they are. Secondly and the bigger factor is that the Leafs will play their fourth game in six nights, third in four and tail-end of back-to-backs. This is a young and hungry group that is highly energized and we?re not going to put a lot of weight on their schedule. Toronto will face weaker goaltending here and therefore, one, two or more players might go off.
Meanwhile, the Islanders come in 3-5 but they are 1-5 against top-16 teams. They are among the riskiest favorites in the league because they?re just so average. The Islanders are second last in the NHL in Corsi for %, which means only the Coyotes are worse in shots directed towards the net differential. The Islanders are dead last in Corsi against with 405 shots directed at their net. To put that into perspective, the ?Canes are first at 205. The Islanders may have a scheduling edge here but that will not even come close to preventing us from taking back a tag with the superior team here.
Buffalo @ WINNIPEG
Buffalo +150 over WINNIPEG
OT included. We have discussed the Jets plenty this year already and our position on this team remains the same. Winnipeg?s parts are better than its sum, thus, they remain a very live dog and a very risky favorite, therefore we?ll play or fade them accordingly.
Winnipeg is coming off back-to-back victories over Dallas and Colorado. They were outshot in both and badly outshot (37-21) in Colorado. After the first period in Colorado, Winnipeg was running around in its own end for the final two periods and only the miraculous goaltending of Michael Hutchison prevented them from losing. Dallas fired away 39 shots on the Jets on Thursday night. Chasing the puck and defending is tiresome work. The Jets now go from being at home to Colorado to being back at home in the span of four days. It is also their fourth game in six nights and for a team that doesn?t always show up and plays with little discipline, taking back a price like this against them almost always makes sense, especially when fatigue will likely be a factor.
The Sabres are high on our radar as one of the most undervalued teams in the league. The Sabres, unlike the Jets, are consistent, as they almost always give a 100 percent honest effort and they are going to start paying off soon. Buffalo defeated Florida yesterday 3-0 after four straight losses so that lifts a weight off of their shoulders. The previous game against the Wild, the Sabres lost 4-0 but dominated play and outshot Minnesota 38-22 and out-chanced them 21-6. Three of the Sabres last four losses were all by one goal and all of them came on the road. In Philadelphia two games ago, Buffalo had a 3-0 lead late in the third but lost 4-3 in OT. The Sabres are 2-3-2 but we could easily be discussing a 6-1 team. They are also the only team to defeat Edmonton this year so of course they have the ability to defeat Winnipeg, especially in the likely event that the Jets take some bad penalties and play soft in two of three periods.
Los Angeles @ CHICAGO
Los Angeles +155 over CHICAGO
The best possession team in the NHL? Los Angeles. The best defensive team in the NHL? Los Angeles. In fact, the Kings are allowing the least amount of high quality chances in the league and they are also only allowing eight shots on net per period. Why then are the Kings just 4-4 after eight games? One only needs to look at their PDO, which ranks dead last in the NHL. PDO combines shooting percentage with save percentage to give each team a luck factor score and in that regard, the Kings have been the unluckiest team in the NHL. It is extremely unlikely that the Kings will get out-played or out-anythinged here.
Chicago is also 4-4 but according to the Sagarin ratings, it has played the easiest schedule (ranked 30) in the NHL. Despite the easy schedule, Chicago continues to get out-played almost every night. Only six teams out of 30 have allowed more high quality scoring chances than the Blackhawks. Chicago is quite simply not the same strong team as they were in previous seasons. When the Blackhawks were elite, they were never in this price range against the Kings. Well, they are not elite anymore but the Kings are absolutely still in the upper echelon. Biggest overlay on the board today.
San Antonio vs. Miami
Play:San Antonio -6?
Spurs On Fire: San Antonio opened the season with a dominant 129-100 win at Golden State and rolled to its third straight win with a 98-79 victory against the Pelicans yesterday. The Spurs won despite resting veterans Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and the pair is expected to be back on the floor tonight.
Banged Up Whiteside: Miami blew a 19-point second-half lead in a 97-91 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday. Hassan Whiteside needed four stitches to close a cut on his left elbow and might be somewhat limited in this contest.
Previous Matchups: Spurs are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami.
Seahawks (4-1-1) at Saints (2-4)
Last Sunday night?s tie between Seattle and Arizona was an exhausting affair that saw a pair of NFC West rivals go toe to toe for five full rounds. While a tie might have been flattering to the Seahawks (Seattle had five first downs in regulation), the more significant factor is Seattle?s fatigue level. A physically draining experience for the Seachickens, they now find themselves on foreign turf for the third time in four weeks including a pair in the Eastern time zone. Asking this weary team to head into the Superdome and play on a fast track while giving away a few points seems almost unfair. It doesn?t help that Seattle QB Russell Wilson has lost some mobility with an injured leg and that he lacks a quality ground game to help bail him out. Meanwhile, Saints are back home and this time as an underdog which is a role they?ve excelled in during the few times placed in it with 7 covers in 10 games taking points here. Drew Brees is in fine form and should get his. Under current conditions, doubtful that the Seahawks can counter. TAKING: SAINTS +2?
Arizona vs. Carolina
Pick: Carolina
When the 2016 schedule was released, looking ahead to the Cardinals playing the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Week 8 was circled as one of the season?s marquee matchups. The Cardinals led the NFL in total offense in 2015 (408.3 YPG) and was second in scoring (30.6 YPG) when it arrived in Carolina last January but the Panther smothered Carson Palmer, forcing six turnovers (four interceptions and two lost fumbles). Palmer?s counterpart, league MVP Cam Newton, passed for 335 yards and two TDs plus ran for another two TDs as the Panthers rolled to a 49-15 victory.
However, with Week 8 of the current season now upon us, this highly-anticipated game will be played by a pair of teams, none of which own a winning record. The Cardinals (13-3 in 2015) are 3-3-1 after rolling up a season-high 443 total yards without a turnover last Sunday night out home against the Seahawks, yet were unable to win, having to settle for an unfulfilling tie. As for the Panthers, coming off a 15-1 season in 2015, Carolina limps in 1-5 SU and ATS. The Panthers offense has been good, ranking fifth in scoring (26.8 PPG) and fourth in total yards (390.3 YPG) but an NFL-high 16 turnovers means that the team just continues to shoot itself in the foot. The fall out has been especially telling on a defense which allowed a modest 19.3 PPG in 2015, but enters this contest allowing 29.3 per (ranks 29th)
Carson Palmer had a career season last year, passing for 4,671 yards with 35 TDs and 11 iNTS (104.6 QB rating) has been nowhere that good here in 2016, entering this game with only seven TDs (five INTs) and a QB rating of 83.4 (he?s missed one game due to a concussion suffered against the Rams in Week 4). Arizona has never had much of a running game but that?s a thing of the past these days, as David Johnson ranks second in the NFL in rushing (681 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs) plus has 28 catches, averaging 11.5 YPC. While Arizona?s offense is down more than a TD per game from 2015 (22.7 PPG, down from 30.6), the defense ranks 7th in total defense (289.6 YPG) and 5th in points allowed (15.7 PPG).
Cam Newton has taken most of the heat for this season's horrific start but that?s hardly fair. Bottom line is, there is no way to explain how a 15-1 regular season team, which went to Super Bowl in 2015, could possibly be 1-5 to open the following season. However, that?s exactly the situation the 2016 Panthers are in. Carson Palmer has won 11 of his last 13 road starts in the regular season but coming off a bye, I just can?t imagine that the Panthers won?t rise to this occasion and that?s my bet.
Packers (4-2) at Falcons (4-3)
The Falcons had a 5-0 start a year ago before they collapsed like a Jenga tower, going 3-8 the rest of the way. Now on a two-game skid after a four-game win streak, the Dirty Birds will pull out all stops to get back on the winning track. Atlanta has the weaponry to do it. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan are as deadly a duo as there are in the league right now. Mix in a solid ground game and few can stop this offence. Certainly not the Packers, who are very thin at an injury-riddled cornerback position. While the Packers are usually feared, there is something amiss with them even following a Thursday night win over the Bears, some 10 days before this one goes. That win against Chicago saw the Pack struggle offensively with a 6-3 lead at the half before Bears forced to go with 3rd string QB Matt Barkley after 2nd stringer Brian Hoyer broke his arm in the second quarter. Packers also away for first time in five weeks. On this day, they are unlikely to travel well. TAKING: FALCONS ?3
Green Bay at Atlanta
Play: Green Bay +3
The Falcons four-game winning streak got snapped two weeks ago when Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman did not get called for what was clearly pass interference on Falcons receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta would've likely kicked the game-winning field goal had the penalty flag been thrown. Atlanta followed that disappointment by blowing a 17-point lead in an equally disappointing 3-point home loss to the Chargers last Sunday. Now they must face a Packers team whose star quarterback/offense finally showed signs of life in their last game.
Much has been written this season about how Green Bay's offense, and QB Aaron Rodgers in particular, is a bit off kilter. But at home against the Bears in their last game, Rodgers and the Packers offense started clicking as the game wore on. With running back Eddie Lacy injured, the Packers have turned to receiver Ty Montgomery. Montgomery has played well at the running back spot, and is always a pass-catching threat from the backfield.
The offenses get the press, but it's the defenses that have me leaning Green Bay's way here. Both teams are solid at stopping the run. Atlanta is tied for 8th in the league, allowing 3.8 yards per carry. The Packers are #1, allowing just 3.1 per rushing attempt. But let's face it, these two teams are going to do much more passing than running. And that's where the difference is in this game.
Green Bay's pass defense is tied for 15th with 10 passing touchdowns allowed, 16th with a 91.4 QB Rating allowed, and 15th with 242 passing yards allowed per game. By comparison, Atlanta's pass defense is tied with the 49ers for 29th with 15 TD passes allowed (only the Browns & Lions are worse), 26th with a 96.9 QB Rating allowed, and 31st (only Oakland is worse) with 294 passing yards allowed per game. Needless to say, Rodgers and company should be able to keep the offensive momentum going here.
This game should come down to whoever gets the ball last. It will definitely be an entertaining game to watch. But in the end, I trust Green Bay's defense to be able to make that one crucial stop more than I trust Atlanta's. Your Sunday freebie is a recommendation on the GREEN BAY PACKERS.
TAMPA BAY -104 over Oakland
The Raiders are 5-2 and have not lost on the road. That is appealing to most but not to us, as the Raiders are getting extremely lucky and luck eventually runs out. So, let?s have a closer look at these imposters from Oakland. The Raiders are dead last in total defense and yards allowed per play. They are outscoring teams by less than one point per game. Oakland is winning because they are tops in turnover margin. The Raiders have zero convincing victories this season with an entire slate of wins by the narrowest of margins. They have also defeated a bunch of dregs too but things are about to get a little bit tougher here.
The Buccaneers are coming off two straight road wins but have yet to win a game at home this season. That?s odd in itself but this host is ready to pop in their own barn. The Bucs' ground game should easily be able to rip it up this week and accomplish two things by doing so. First, they?ll be able to wear down this brutally weak defense and secondly, they?ll be able to limit the Raiders possessions and not play into their strengths. The Buccaneers offense is starting to peak and their defense can play too. To defeat a weak team, you play into all their inefficiencies and in that regard, the Raiders have plenty. Weak teams rarely win on the road and now thias weak one is being asked to win five straight on the road. We don?t think so.
Green Bay +145 over ATLANTA
As a home favorite last Sunday, the Falcons came crashing down to earth in an overtime loss to the Chargers. Atlanta blew a 10-point halftime lead and it now appears as though its crazy schedule has finally caught up with them, as the Falcons could only muster a field goal in the second half. Prior to playing the Chargers, Atlanta had played four of five on the road including back-to-back road games at Denver and Seattle. They were fumning on fumes in the second half last week and it may continue here. Aside from that, Atlanta is a completely one-sided squad that's led by it's offense but it relies way too much on Julio Jones. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw 34 passes against the Chargers with 15 of those being targeted at Jones, who caught nine balls. When you know where the ball is going, it's much easier to defend and Jones was kept relatively quiet in the second half after San Diego made their adjustments. While he caught four passes in the second half, two of those were in the final seconds of the fourth quarter. The Falcons are now 4-3 after two straight losses and they also have a big prime time game next Thursday night at Tampa.
The Packers finally covered a game in the Week 7 Thursday nighter over the Bears. Chicago lost quarterback Brian Hoyer to injury early in the game so we can understand how easy it is to dismiss the Packers performance against a third stringer in Matt Barkley. Also, it's the Bears, so no matter who the QB was for Chicago, a win and cover doesn't hold much weight in the market. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been on the hot seat all season and has been the subject of many articles with the pundits breaking down what's wrong with #12. In Aaron Rodgers own words the last time he was under fire, all we can say is, "R-E-L-A-X". The Packers have played some tough defenses this season in Minny, Dallas and the Giants. Rodgers should have no trouble moving the chains and racking up points against the Falcons, as the Packers take a big step down in defensive competition here.
The Packers are just 3-2-1 ATS and they barely covered against the Jags and Lions. Green Bay?s value may be at it's lowest in years. Meanwhile the Falcons are 5-2 with impressive covers against Oakland, Carolina, New Orleans, Denver and Seattle. Taking back points, Atlanta won four of those games outright. As a favorite, the Falcons are not appealing at all, as they are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 as the chalk. That reveals how big a risk the Falcons are when they?re asked to spot points. A motivated Aaron Rodgers getting points is where the value lies here but we don?t even want the points. The Falcons balloon has been popped. Pack outright.
NEW ORLEANS +120 over Seattle
Offensively, the Seahawks looked every bit as terrible as the six points they scored last week at Arizona. However, they were somehow able to salvage a tie despite getting totally dominated throughout. The Seahawks poor performance may have been overshadowed by the zaniness that went down on Sunday Night Football. Despite its 4-2 record, we do not like what we've seen from Seattle this season. The Seahawks have been inconsistent with their two best games of the season coming against the Jets and the 49ers. Seattle struggled at home against both the Falcons and Dolphins and it lost outright at the Rams. The perception is that anyone can score on the Saints and while that may be true, the Seahawks spotting road points against an offense that can easily out-punch them has very little appeal.
The Saints have lost much of their lustre since the glory days of the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. They used to be unbeatable at the Super Dome but that is no longer the case. Their defense is generally regarded as the worst in the league. Daily fantasy players routinely smash whatever offense is lining up against New Orleans on a given week. Despite their poor defensive reputation, the Saints offense is still running at a high level. Brees is surrounded with quality weapons. The Saints have played in some close games all season and have been a quality choice and a high percentage play when taking back points. They have only failed to cover this season as the betting favorite while covering each and every time they?ve been offered points. We?re not even going after the points this week, as the Saints can easily win this one outright. New Orleans is averaging 36 points per game at home with Drew Brees throwing for 421 yards and nearly four TD passes per game. Seattle cannot match that offensive production on its best day. Saints outright.
Arizona +141 over CAROLINA
The difference between last year?s Panthers and this years edition is nothing but pure luck. Carolina led the league in turnover margin last year while this year they are second last in that department. Creating turnovers or committing them is not a skill. It?s a luck driven, in game variant that determines the outcome of a large majority of games, which is why we stress ?going with the best of it? and in that regard, the Cardinals are the best of it.
The Panthers defense is a shell of the unit that dominated so many games last season. Furthermore, Cam Newton has been running for his life since the first game in Denver. Despite their record, the Panthers are still a popular team with Newton being a transcendent player. Cam may put up big time fantasy numbers but those don't matter when your defense can't stop anybody. Newton actually has similar numbers to last season but he's thrown two more interceptions. Newton better be well rested coming off the bye because he's got a date with one of the fiercest defensive units in the game and we all saw him meltdown against a similar group in last year?s Super Bowl.
The Cardinals took part in what was either ?the worst best game ever of the best worst game ever? or maybe both, as Jim Rome tweeted Sunday night. That painful 6-6 tie has left a lasting impression but we?re not going to put much stock into it, as that game Sunday night was a prime example of why ?in-game variance? is impossible to predict. We now get to take advantage of a misleading result when in fact, Arizona could have won that game by 28 points or more. The Cardinals' defense is still one of the best in the game and that doesn't bode well for Cam Newton who's been beaten up all season and already missed time with a concussion. This is just a bad matchup for the Panthers in every way possible. Lastly, the Panthers crushed Arizona, 49-15 in the NFC championship game when the Panthers were rolling and everything was going their way. What a difference a year makes and while revenge is not an angle we endorse, this is one rare time we?ll factor it into our decision because the defeat was of the humiliating variety.
San Diego vs. Denver
Play: San Diego +4.5
While the Chargers still have a major climb to get themselves firmly back into the AFC West picture, Mike McCoy?s squad has done a great job bouncing back from a terrible start to the season. No longer are we talking about this club finding ways to lose games. Not after it dominated Denver 21-13 as 3 point underdogs two weeks ago and then followed it up with an awesome overtime comeback win in Atlanta last week.
I?m not done riding the Chargers turnaround since I believe it?s seriously only just begun. With the amount of debilitating injuries this team has incurred, it?s been amazing to see them in each and every one of their games played to date. SD has covered 5 of its 7 played games to date, and has covered all four against +.500 opponents.
While Denver has won four of the last five times it hosted this rivalry, it lost four of those games where it really counts against the pointspread. While it will be tough to hang with a determined Denver side coming off a physical overtime win against the Falcons, San Diego can?t afford to lose many more games due to its tough luck start. The Chargers run defense thrived in the first go round, and it won't have to deal with C.J. Anderson this time around. Gimme the points and sprinkle some on the money-line as well.
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Play: Indianapolis +3
Having lost four of its last 6 games, Indianapolis traveled to Tennessee last week in what most observers described as a hopeless situation. Despite endless speculation circulating about the job security of head coach Chuck Pagano, the Colts left Tennessee with a 34-26 upset win as 4-point underdogs. That win, combined with the fact that quarterback Andrew Luck is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as a home underdog in his NFL career, makes the Colts a definitive "buy" in Week Eight.
The Colts' offense, which is 0.4 yards per play better than average this season (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad), received good news this week when starting wide receiver Donte Moncrief returned to the practice field this week after missing the last five games with a shoulder injury. Moncrief, who is the team's No. 2 receiver, stated on Wednesday that he would be "surprised" if he doesn't play on Sunday against the Chiefs.
The Colts are 2-1 SU and ATS at home this season where they are averaging 30.0 points and 419 total yards per game at 6.6 yards per play. That production is good enough to exploit an overrated Kansas City defense that has been 0.2 yards per play worse than average in 2016 (5.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.7 yards per play).
Opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3% of their pass attempts against Kansas City's suspect secondary, and the Chiefs are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road where they are yielding 358 total yards per game at 6.3 yards per play. The Chiefs are also 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Indianapolis, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against .499 or worse opposition and 0-5 ATS in their last five games off a win.
In contrast, Indianapolis is 20-8-1 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road record, 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 home games overall and 11-5-1 ATS in its last seventeen October affairs. The Colts have also covered the spread in four of the last meetings in this series. I also like the fact that coach Pagano's squad is 22-10 ATS at home following a divisional road win, 17-6 ATS at home off a road upset and 10-2 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last three seasons.
Finally, Kansas City's secondary lost cornerback D.J. White to a broken hand, which is a significant loss as the talented rookie was showing a lot of growth after struggling earlier in the season against Ben Roethlisberger. If starting cornerback Phillip Gaines remains out (miss most or all of the past three games because of a sore knee), the Chiefs will struggle to contain Luck and the Colts' prolific aerial attack.
With Indianapolis standing at a perfect 7-0 ATS (since December 4, 2011) following a game where it was installed as an underdog versus an opponent off back-to-back wins, grab the points with the Colts.
Chargers vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -4
I know San Diego just laid it on Denver two weeks ago, but I?ll take my chances with the Broncos in this spot. Keep in mind that in that first loss to the Chargers, Denver was without head coach Gary Kubiak. A huge loss given they had to play San Diego on short rest with the game on Thursday Night Football.
Denver came out flat without Kubiak on the sidelines and fell behind 10-0 early. They aren?t a team to play from behind, especially on offense. Trevor Siemian ended up throwing it 50 times. The only game this season where he?s attempted more than 35 passes. It?s also important to note that Kubiak calls the plays offensively and is one of the best in the league doing so.
I think we get a much different result here with a more focused Denver team. Especially playing at home, where they are 35-7 since the start of the 2012 season. I know revenge isn?t huge in the NFL, but I think this is a spot where it comes into play.
I also think it?s important to look at the line here. Just two weeks ago Denver was a 3-point road favorite at San Diego. Given home field advantage they should be around a 6.5-7 point home favorite. With the line currently at 4.5, we are getting 2+ points in value on the Broncos.
There could be some concern here with Denver losing starting running back C.J. Anderson. I don?t think it?s going to make a difference. Rookie Devontae Booker has actually been more effective this season. Booker is averaging 4.8 yards/carry, while Anderson was at 4.0 yards/carry.
I also think this is a tough spot San Diego. The Chargers have laid it all on the line the last two weeks against the Broncos and Falcons. They also aren?t going to surprise Denver with the wrinkles they threw into their offense the first time around.
While San Diego has won and covered in two straight. They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win. The Chargers are also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Denver is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Broncos are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win.
New England vs. Buffalo
Play: New England -6?
The Patriots are a very different team now than they were when Buffalo came to Foxboro and shut them out last month. That game was all about Jacoby Brissett looking like a third string quarterback and the Pats feeling fat and happy after winning their first three games while Tom Brady was suspended. THIS game is all about New England taking firm control of a division that they?ve owned for the last decade and a half.
New England has dominated all three games since Brady?s return. The combination of a pair of elite pass catching tight ends (Gronk and Bennett) and a big, bruising back (LaGarrett Blount) has proven extremely tough to stop with Brady behind center. Belichick?s second look at this Rob Ryan defense is a recipe for success. And the likes of Tyrod Taylor and a banged up Shady McCoy simply aren?t capable of trading touchdowns with the Patriots for four quarters.
The Bills recent four game winning streak has left them a good notch or two overvalued. Just about everything broke right for Buffalo during that streak. They got Arizona in a flat spot, off a blowout win in an early start game on a bad day from Carson Palmer. They got the Pats with Brissett. They got the 49ers in their first game without defensive captain Navarro Bowman. And they beat the Rams on a day where LA was missing three of their four defensive line starters.
Even Buffalo?s three point loss at Miami last week is somewhat misleading. The Dolphins outgained the Bills by 1.8 yards per play. With the exception of one big play 67 yard TD and one garbage time score in the final seconds, the Bills offense didn?t move the football all afternoon. I?m not expecting that to change here in a game the Pats should win by a TD or more.
9:05 PM NHL [14] Edmonton Oilers -160
1:00 PM NFL [259] NE PATRIOTS -6-115
6:05 PM NBA [707] San Antonio Spurs -6.5 -110
12:30 PM SOC [202434] FC Koln -170 over Hamburg SV (GERMANY - BUNDESLIGA) soccer
1 unit bet pays 13 ....betdsi line
K?ln is hungry to bounce back after their first lost of the season, now at home (unbeaten last 7 there) vs a team at the bottom of the table, missing thier captain and Emir Spahic...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Toronto @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
Toronto +160 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. According to the Sagarin ratings, Toronto has played the toughest schedule in the NHL and yet they are outplaying almost every team they face. Only once have the Maple Leafs lost the battle of high quality scoring chances. They have unfortunately run into a slew of hot goaltenders, including Carey Price last night in a game the Leafs were clearly the better team in. Toronto ranks high in every metric for and against and it?s only a matter of time until they start paying off. The Leafs are taking back a big price here for two reasons. First, their record is unimpressive but anyone that watches this game understands how dangerous they are. Secondly and the bigger factor is that the Leafs will play their fourth game in six nights, third in four and tail-end of back-to-backs. This is a young and hungry group that is highly energized and we?re not going to put a lot of weight on their schedule. Toronto will face weaker goaltending here and therefore, one, two or more players might go off.
Meanwhile, the Islanders come in 3-5 but they are 1-5 against top-16 teams. They are among the riskiest favorites in the league because they?re just so average. The Islanders are second last in the NHL in Corsi for %, which means only the Coyotes are worse in shots directed towards the net differential. The Islanders are dead last in Corsi against with 405 shots directed at their net. To put that into perspective, the ?Canes are first at 205. The Islanders may have a scheduling edge here but that will not even come close to preventing us from taking back a tag with the superior team here.
Buffalo @ WINNIPEG
Buffalo +150 over WINNIPEG
OT included. We have discussed the Jets plenty this year already and our position on this team remains the same. Winnipeg?s parts are better than its sum, thus, they remain a very live dog and a very risky favorite, therefore we?ll play or fade them accordingly.
Winnipeg is coming off back-to-back victories over Dallas and Colorado. They were outshot in both and badly outshot (37-21) in Colorado. After the first period in Colorado, Winnipeg was running around in its own end for the final two periods and only the miraculous goaltending of Michael Hutchison prevented them from losing. Dallas fired away 39 shots on the Jets on Thursday night. Chasing the puck and defending is tiresome work. The Jets now go from being at home to Colorado to being back at home in the span of four days. It is also their fourth game in six nights and for a team that doesn?t always show up and plays with little discipline, taking back a price like this against them almost always makes sense, especially when fatigue will likely be a factor.
The Sabres are high on our radar as one of the most undervalued teams in the league. The Sabres, unlike the Jets, are consistent, as they almost always give a 100 percent honest effort and they are going to start paying off soon. Buffalo defeated Florida yesterday 3-0 after four straight losses so that lifts a weight off of their shoulders. The previous game against the Wild, the Sabres lost 4-0 but dominated play and outshot Minnesota 38-22 and out-chanced them 21-6. Three of the Sabres last four losses were all by one goal and all of them came on the road. In Philadelphia two games ago, Buffalo had a 3-0 lead late in the third but lost 4-3 in OT. The Sabres are 2-3-2 but we could easily be discussing a 6-1 team. They are also the only team to defeat Edmonton this year so of course they have the ability to defeat Winnipeg, especially in the likely event that the Jets take some bad penalties and play soft in two of three periods.
Los Angeles @ CHICAGO
Los Angeles +155 over CHICAGO
The best possession team in the NHL? Los Angeles. The best defensive team in the NHL? Los Angeles. In fact, the Kings are allowing the least amount of high quality chances in the league and they are also only allowing eight shots on net per period. Why then are the Kings just 4-4 after eight games? One only needs to look at their PDO, which ranks dead last in the NHL. PDO combines shooting percentage with save percentage to give each team a luck factor score and in that regard, the Kings have been the unluckiest team in the NHL. It is extremely unlikely that the Kings will get out-played or out-anythinged here.
Chicago is also 4-4 but according to the Sagarin ratings, it has played the easiest schedule (ranked 30) in the NHL. Despite the easy schedule, Chicago continues to get out-played almost every night. Only six teams out of 30 have allowed more high quality scoring chances than the Blackhawks. Chicago is quite simply not the same strong team as they were in previous seasons. When the Blackhawks were elite, they were never in this price range against the Kings. Well, they are not elite anymore but the Kings are absolutely still in the upper echelon. Biggest overlay on the board today.
San Antonio vs. Miami
Play:San Antonio -6?
Spurs On Fire: San Antonio opened the season with a dominant 129-100 win at Golden State and rolled to its third straight win with a 98-79 victory against the Pelicans yesterday. The Spurs won despite resting veterans Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and the pair is expected to be back on the floor tonight.
Banged Up Whiteside: Miami blew a 19-point second-half lead in a 97-91 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on Friday. Hassan Whiteside needed four stitches to close a cut on his left elbow and might be somewhat limited in this contest.
Previous Matchups: Spurs are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Miami.
Seahawks (4-1-1) at Saints (2-4)
Last Sunday night?s tie between Seattle and Arizona was an exhausting affair that saw a pair of NFC West rivals go toe to toe for five full rounds. While a tie might have been flattering to the Seahawks (Seattle had five first downs in regulation), the more significant factor is Seattle?s fatigue level. A physically draining experience for the Seachickens, they now find themselves on foreign turf for the third time in four weeks including a pair in the Eastern time zone. Asking this weary team to head into the Superdome and play on a fast track while giving away a few points seems almost unfair. It doesn?t help that Seattle QB Russell Wilson has lost some mobility with an injured leg and that he lacks a quality ground game to help bail him out. Meanwhile, Saints are back home and this time as an underdog which is a role they?ve excelled in during the few times placed in it with 7 covers in 10 games taking points here. Drew Brees is in fine form and should get his. Under current conditions, doubtful that the Seahawks can counter. TAKING: SAINTS +2?
Arizona vs. Carolina
Pick: Carolina
When the 2016 schedule was released, looking ahead to the Cardinals playing the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Week 8 was circled as one of the season?s marquee matchups. The Cardinals led the NFL in total offense in 2015 (408.3 YPG) and was second in scoring (30.6 YPG) when it arrived in Carolina last January but the Panther smothered Carson Palmer, forcing six turnovers (four interceptions and two lost fumbles). Palmer?s counterpart, league MVP Cam Newton, passed for 335 yards and two TDs plus ran for another two TDs as the Panthers rolled to a 49-15 victory.
However, with Week 8 of the current season now upon us, this highly-anticipated game will be played by a pair of teams, none of which own a winning record. The Cardinals (13-3 in 2015) are 3-3-1 after rolling up a season-high 443 total yards without a turnover last Sunday night out home against the Seahawks, yet were unable to win, having to settle for an unfulfilling tie. As for the Panthers, coming off a 15-1 season in 2015, Carolina limps in 1-5 SU and ATS. The Panthers offense has been good, ranking fifth in scoring (26.8 PPG) and fourth in total yards (390.3 YPG) but an NFL-high 16 turnovers means that the team just continues to shoot itself in the foot. The fall out has been especially telling on a defense which allowed a modest 19.3 PPG in 2015, but enters this contest allowing 29.3 per (ranks 29th)
Carson Palmer had a career season last year, passing for 4,671 yards with 35 TDs and 11 iNTS (104.6 QB rating) has been nowhere that good here in 2016, entering this game with only seven TDs (five INTs) and a QB rating of 83.4 (he?s missed one game due to a concussion suffered against the Rams in Week 4). Arizona has never had much of a running game but that?s a thing of the past these days, as David Johnson ranks second in the NFL in rushing (681 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs) plus has 28 catches, averaging 11.5 YPC. While Arizona?s offense is down more than a TD per game from 2015 (22.7 PPG, down from 30.6), the defense ranks 7th in total defense (289.6 YPG) and 5th in points allowed (15.7 PPG).
Cam Newton has taken most of the heat for this season's horrific start but that?s hardly fair. Bottom line is, there is no way to explain how a 15-1 regular season team, which went to Super Bowl in 2015, could possibly be 1-5 to open the following season. However, that?s exactly the situation the 2016 Panthers are in. Carson Palmer has won 11 of his last 13 road starts in the regular season but coming off a bye, I just can?t imagine that the Panthers won?t rise to this occasion and that?s my bet.
Packers (4-2) at Falcons (4-3)
The Falcons had a 5-0 start a year ago before they collapsed like a Jenga tower, going 3-8 the rest of the way. Now on a two-game skid after a four-game win streak, the Dirty Birds will pull out all stops to get back on the winning track. Atlanta has the weaponry to do it. Julio Jones and Matt Ryan are as deadly a duo as there are in the league right now. Mix in a solid ground game and few can stop this offence. Certainly not the Packers, who are very thin at an injury-riddled cornerback position. While the Packers are usually feared, there is something amiss with them even following a Thursday night win over the Bears, some 10 days before this one goes. That win against Chicago saw the Pack struggle offensively with a 6-3 lead at the half before Bears forced to go with 3rd string QB Matt Barkley after 2nd stringer Brian Hoyer broke his arm in the second quarter. Packers also away for first time in five weeks. On this day, they are unlikely to travel well. TAKING: FALCONS ?3
Green Bay at Atlanta
Play: Green Bay +3
The Falcons four-game winning streak got snapped two weeks ago when Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman did not get called for what was clearly pass interference on Falcons receiver Julio Jones. Atlanta would've likely kicked the game-winning field goal had the penalty flag been thrown. Atlanta followed that disappointment by blowing a 17-point lead in an equally disappointing 3-point home loss to the Chargers last Sunday. Now they must face a Packers team whose star quarterback/offense finally showed signs of life in their last game.
Much has been written this season about how Green Bay's offense, and QB Aaron Rodgers in particular, is a bit off kilter. But at home against the Bears in their last game, Rodgers and the Packers offense started clicking as the game wore on. With running back Eddie Lacy injured, the Packers have turned to receiver Ty Montgomery. Montgomery has played well at the running back spot, and is always a pass-catching threat from the backfield.
The offenses get the press, but it's the defenses that have me leaning Green Bay's way here. Both teams are solid at stopping the run. Atlanta is tied for 8th in the league, allowing 3.8 yards per carry. The Packers are #1, allowing just 3.1 per rushing attempt. But let's face it, these two teams are going to do much more passing than running. And that's where the difference is in this game.
Green Bay's pass defense is tied for 15th with 10 passing touchdowns allowed, 16th with a 91.4 QB Rating allowed, and 15th with 242 passing yards allowed per game. By comparison, Atlanta's pass defense is tied with the 49ers for 29th with 15 TD passes allowed (only the Browns & Lions are worse), 26th with a 96.9 QB Rating allowed, and 31st (only Oakland is worse) with 294 passing yards allowed per game. Needless to say, Rodgers and company should be able to keep the offensive momentum going here.
This game should come down to whoever gets the ball last. It will definitely be an entertaining game to watch. But in the end, I trust Green Bay's defense to be able to make that one crucial stop more than I trust Atlanta's. Your Sunday freebie is a recommendation on the GREEN BAY PACKERS.
TAMPA BAY -104 over Oakland
The Raiders are 5-2 and have not lost on the road. That is appealing to most but not to us, as the Raiders are getting extremely lucky and luck eventually runs out. So, let?s have a closer look at these imposters from Oakland. The Raiders are dead last in total defense and yards allowed per play. They are outscoring teams by less than one point per game. Oakland is winning because they are tops in turnover margin. The Raiders have zero convincing victories this season with an entire slate of wins by the narrowest of margins. They have also defeated a bunch of dregs too but things are about to get a little bit tougher here.
The Buccaneers are coming off two straight road wins but have yet to win a game at home this season. That?s odd in itself but this host is ready to pop in their own barn. The Bucs' ground game should easily be able to rip it up this week and accomplish two things by doing so. First, they?ll be able to wear down this brutally weak defense and secondly, they?ll be able to limit the Raiders possessions and not play into their strengths. The Buccaneers offense is starting to peak and their defense can play too. To defeat a weak team, you play into all their inefficiencies and in that regard, the Raiders have plenty. Weak teams rarely win on the road and now thias weak one is being asked to win five straight on the road. We don?t think so.
Green Bay +145 over ATLANTA
As a home favorite last Sunday, the Falcons came crashing down to earth in an overtime loss to the Chargers. Atlanta blew a 10-point halftime lead and it now appears as though its crazy schedule has finally caught up with them, as the Falcons could only muster a field goal in the second half. Prior to playing the Chargers, Atlanta had played four of five on the road including back-to-back road games at Denver and Seattle. They were fumning on fumes in the second half last week and it may continue here. Aside from that, Atlanta is a completely one-sided squad that's led by it's offense but it relies way too much on Julio Jones. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw 34 passes against the Chargers with 15 of those being targeted at Jones, who caught nine balls. When you know where the ball is going, it's much easier to defend and Jones was kept relatively quiet in the second half after San Diego made their adjustments. While he caught four passes in the second half, two of those were in the final seconds of the fourth quarter. The Falcons are now 4-3 after two straight losses and they also have a big prime time game next Thursday night at Tampa.
The Packers finally covered a game in the Week 7 Thursday nighter over the Bears. Chicago lost quarterback Brian Hoyer to injury early in the game so we can understand how easy it is to dismiss the Packers performance against a third stringer in Matt Barkley. Also, it's the Bears, so no matter who the QB was for Chicago, a win and cover doesn't hold much weight in the market. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been on the hot seat all season and has been the subject of many articles with the pundits breaking down what's wrong with #12. In Aaron Rodgers own words the last time he was under fire, all we can say is, "R-E-L-A-X". The Packers have played some tough defenses this season in Minny, Dallas and the Giants. Rodgers should have no trouble moving the chains and racking up points against the Falcons, as the Packers take a big step down in defensive competition here.
The Packers are just 3-2-1 ATS and they barely covered against the Jags and Lions. Green Bay?s value may be at it's lowest in years. Meanwhile the Falcons are 5-2 with impressive covers against Oakland, Carolina, New Orleans, Denver and Seattle. Taking back points, Atlanta won four of those games outright. As a favorite, the Falcons are not appealing at all, as they are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 as the chalk. That reveals how big a risk the Falcons are when they?re asked to spot points. A motivated Aaron Rodgers getting points is where the value lies here but we don?t even want the points. The Falcons balloon has been popped. Pack outright.
NEW ORLEANS +120 over Seattle
Offensively, the Seahawks looked every bit as terrible as the six points they scored last week at Arizona. However, they were somehow able to salvage a tie despite getting totally dominated throughout. The Seahawks poor performance may have been overshadowed by the zaniness that went down on Sunday Night Football. Despite its 4-2 record, we do not like what we've seen from Seattle this season. The Seahawks have been inconsistent with their two best games of the season coming against the Jets and the 49ers. Seattle struggled at home against both the Falcons and Dolphins and it lost outright at the Rams. The perception is that anyone can score on the Saints and while that may be true, the Seahawks spotting road points against an offense that can easily out-punch them has very little appeal.
The Saints have lost much of their lustre since the glory days of the Sean Payton/Drew Brees era. They used to be unbeatable at the Super Dome but that is no longer the case. Their defense is generally regarded as the worst in the league. Daily fantasy players routinely smash whatever offense is lining up against New Orleans on a given week. Despite their poor defensive reputation, the Saints offense is still running at a high level. Brees is surrounded with quality weapons. The Saints have played in some close games all season and have been a quality choice and a high percentage play when taking back points. They have only failed to cover this season as the betting favorite while covering each and every time they?ve been offered points. We?re not even going after the points this week, as the Saints can easily win this one outright. New Orleans is averaging 36 points per game at home with Drew Brees throwing for 421 yards and nearly four TD passes per game. Seattle cannot match that offensive production on its best day. Saints outright.
Arizona +141 over CAROLINA
The difference between last year?s Panthers and this years edition is nothing but pure luck. Carolina led the league in turnover margin last year while this year they are second last in that department. Creating turnovers or committing them is not a skill. It?s a luck driven, in game variant that determines the outcome of a large majority of games, which is why we stress ?going with the best of it? and in that regard, the Cardinals are the best of it.
The Panthers defense is a shell of the unit that dominated so many games last season. Furthermore, Cam Newton has been running for his life since the first game in Denver. Despite their record, the Panthers are still a popular team with Newton being a transcendent player. Cam may put up big time fantasy numbers but those don't matter when your defense can't stop anybody. Newton actually has similar numbers to last season but he's thrown two more interceptions. Newton better be well rested coming off the bye because he's got a date with one of the fiercest defensive units in the game and we all saw him meltdown against a similar group in last year?s Super Bowl.
The Cardinals took part in what was either ?the worst best game ever of the best worst game ever? or maybe both, as Jim Rome tweeted Sunday night. That painful 6-6 tie has left a lasting impression but we?re not going to put much stock into it, as that game Sunday night was a prime example of why ?in-game variance? is impossible to predict. We now get to take advantage of a misleading result when in fact, Arizona could have won that game by 28 points or more. The Cardinals' defense is still one of the best in the game and that doesn't bode well for Cam Newton who's been beaten up all season and already missed time with a concussion. This is just a bad matchup for the Panthers in every way possible. Lastly, the Panthers crushed Arizona, 49-15 in the NFC championship game when the Panthers were rolling and everything was going their way. What a difference a year makes and while revenge is not an angle we endorse, this is one rare time we?ll factor it into our decision because the defeat was of the humiliating variety.
San Diego vs. Denver
Play: San Diego +4.5
While the Chargers still have a major climb to get themselves firmly back into the AFC West picture, Mike McCoy?s squad has done a great job bouncing back from a terrible start to the season. No longer are we talking about this club finding ways to lose games. Not after it dominated Denver 21-13 as 3 point underdogs two weeks ago and then followed it up with an awesome overtime comeback win in Atlanta last week.
I?m not done riding the Chargers turnaround since I believe it?s seriously only just begun. With the amount of debilitating injuries this team has incurred, it?s been amazing to see them in each and every one of their games played to date. SD has covered 5 of its 7 played games to date, and has covered all four against +.500 opponents.
While Denver has won four of the last five times it hosted this rivalry, it lost four of those games where it really counts against the pointspread. While it will be tough to hang with a determined Denver side coming off a physical overtime win against the Falcons, San Diego can?t afford to lose many more games due to its tough luck start. The Chargers run defense thrived in the first go round, and it won't have to deal with C.J. Anderson this time around. Gimme the points and sprinkle some on the money-line as well.
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Play: Indianapolis +3
Having lost four of its last 6 games, Indianapolis traveled to Tennessee last week in what most observers described as a hopeless situation. Despite endless speculation circulating about the job security of head coach Chuck Pagano, the Colts left Tennessee with a 34-26 upset win as 4-point underdogs. That win, combined with the fact that quarterback Andrew Luck is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS as a home underdog in his NFL career, makes the Colts a definitive "buy" in Week Eight.
The Colts' offense, which is 0.4 yards per play better than average this season (5.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad), received good news this week when starting wide receiver Donte Moncrief returned to the practice field this week after missing the last five games with a shoulder injury. Moncrief, who is the team's No. 2 receiver, stated on Wednesday that he would be "surprised" if he doesn't play on Sunday against the Chiefs.
The Colts are 2-1 SU and ATS at home this season where they are averaging 30.0 points and 419 total yards per game at 6.6 yards per play. That production is good enough to exploit an overrated Kansas City defense that has been 0.2 yards per play worse than average in 2016 (5.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.7 yards per play).
Opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3% of their pass attempts against Kansas City's suspect secondary, and the Chiefs are 1-2 SU and ATS on the road where they are yielding 358 total yards per game at 6.3 yards per play. The Chiefs are also 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Indianapolis, 1-4 ATS in their last five games against .499 or worse opposition and 0-5 ATS in their last five games off a win.
In contrast, Indianapolis is 20-8-1 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road record, 27-11-1 ATS in its last 39 home games overall and 11-5-1 ATS in its last seventeen October affairs. The Colts have also covered the spread in four of the last meetings in this series. I also like the fact that coach Pagano's squad is 22-10 ATS at home following a divisional road win, 17-6 ATS at home off a road upset and 10-2 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last three seasons.
Finally, Kansas City's secondary lost cornerback D.J. White to a broken hand, which is a significant loss as the talented rookie was showing a lot of growth after struggling earlier in the season against Ben Roethlisberger. If starting cornerback Phillip Gaines remains out (miss most or all of the past three games because of a sore knee), the Chiefs will struggle to contain Luck and the Colts' prolific aerial attack.
With Indianapolis standing at a perfect 7-0 ATS (since December 4, 2011) following a game where it was installed as an underdog versus an opponent off back-to-back wins, grab the points with the Colts.
Chargers vs. Broncos
Play: Broncos -4
I know San Diego just laid it on Denver two weeks ago, but I?ll take my chances with the Broncos in this spot. Keep in mind that in that first loss to the Chargers, Denver was without head coach Gary Kubiak. A huge loss given they had to play San Diego on short rest with the game on Thursday Night Football.
Denver came out flat without Kubiak on the sidelines and fell behind 10-0 early. They aren?t a team to play from behind, especially on offense. Trevor Siemian ended up throwing it 50 times. The only game this season where he?s attempted more than 35 passes. It?s also important to note that Kubiak calls the plays offensively and is one of the best in the league doing so.
I think we get a much different result here with a more focused Denver team. Especially playing at home, where they are 35-7 since the start of the 2012 season. I know revenge isn?t huge in the NFL, but I think this is a spot where it comes into play.
I also think it?s important to look at the line here. Just two weeks ago Denver was a 3-point road favorite at San Diego. Given home field advantage they should be around a 6.5-7 point home favorite. With the line currently at 4.5, we are getting 2+ points in value on the Broncos.
There could be some concern here with Denver losing starting running back C.J. Anderson. I don?t think it?s going to make a difference. Rookie Devontae Booker has actually been more effective this season. Booker is averaging 4.8 yards/carry, while Anderson was at 4.0 yards/carry.
I also think this is a tough spot San Diego. The Chargers have laid it all on the line the last two weeks against the Broncos and Falcons. They also aren?t going to surprise Denver with the wrinkles they threw into their offense the first time around.
While San Diego has won and covered in two straight. They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win. The Chargers are also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game. Denver is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Broncos are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win.
New England vs. Buffalo
Play: New England -6?
The Patriots are a very different team now than they were when Buffalo came to Foxboro and shut them out last month. That game was all about Jacoby Brissett looking like a third string quarterback and the Pats feeling fat and happy after winning their first three games while Tom Brady was suspended. THIS game is all about New England taking firm control of a division that they?ve owned for the last decade and a half.
New England has dominated all three games since Brady?s return. The combination of a pair of elite pass catching tight ends (Gronk and Bennett) and a big, bruising back (LaGarrett Blount) has proven extremely tough to stop with Brady behind center. Belichick?s second look at this Rob Ryan defense is a recipe for success. And the likes of Tyrod Taylor and a banged up Shady McCoy simply aren?t capable of trading touchdowns with the Patriots for four quarters.
The Bills recent four game winning streak has left them a good notch or two overvalued. Just about everything broke right for Buffalo during that streak. They got Arizona in a flat spot, off a blowout win in an early start game on a bad day from Carson Palmer. They got the Pats with Brissett. They got the 49ers in their first game without defensive captain Navarro Bowman. And they beat the Rams on a day where LA was missing three of their four defensive line starters.
Even Buffalo?s three point loss at Miami last week is somewhat misleading. The Dolphins outgained the Bills by 1.8 yards per play. With the exception of one big play 67 yard TD and one garbage time score in the final seconds, the Bills offense didn?t move the football all afternoon. I?m not expecting that to change here in a game the Pats should win by a TD or more.
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