Sunday Picks
- Thread starter dnuggets
- Start date
Nice call Nuggs...I didn't have the guts to bet the ML though...just took the points & a small amount of dead presidents
thanks Dry
thanks DryThanks guys, nice d by the clips sealed it because they couldnt hit a shot late.
Dry1, ive sat down and done the math, money line is the way to go every single time. Thing is if you go lets say 26-24 ats with dogs, but 21 of those 26 win outright, which is about the league average only about 17% of all games that the fav wins do not cover. Lets say you win 21, at an average ml of +225...
you lose 100 each time so thats -2900 in the games you lost but
you win 225 each time which is +4725 in games you win for a
profit of $1825.
The other way if you get 26 right, thats $2600 you win but
you lose 2640....and your down -$40.
And my average money line is actually closer to 275, and if you hit more games lets say 28-22 the math is still the same odds are you win 22 of those games outright.
Ive bet 79 dogs this year, 45-34, however, 36 of those have won outright....simple fact is youll take a few more losses but youll win a lot more money in the long run. That doesnt even take in ml's that hit like the two last night with chicago and memphis at over +650 and +800 each....good luck i hope that wasnt too confusing.....
67-40ats (63%)
3-3 dog money lines +380
Dry1, ive sat down and done the math, money line is the way to go every single time. Thing is if you go lets say 26-24 ats with dogs, but 21 of those 26 win outright, which is about the league average only about 17% of all games that the fav wins do not cover. Lets say you win 21, at an average ml of +225...
you lose 100 each time so thats -2900 in the games you lost but
you win 225 each time which is +4725 in games you win for a
profit of $1825.
The other way if you get 26 right, thats $2600 you win but
you lose 2640....and your down -$40.
And my average money line is actually closer to 275, and if you hit more games lets say 28-22 the math is still the same odds are you win 22 of those games outright.
Ive bet 79 dogs this year, 45-34, however, 36 of those have won outright....simple fact is youll take a few more losses but youll win a lot more money in the long run. That doesnt even take in ml's that hit like the two last night with chicago and memphis at over +650 and +800 each....good luck i hope that wasnt too confusing.....
67-40ats (63%)
3-3 dog money lines +380
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thanks for the great moneline tips D and dry..do moneylines vary greatly at sportsbooks of say -4 in the nba ?
Dnuggets
Good info on ml plays. I also play moneyline plays usually teams that are favored by 6 to 8. They seem to have the best value. I mean if you do that the books are basically telling you who will win. Of course you have to wager more money to win less but I still think there is value in it if you can pick winners consistantly.
Good Luck!
Scott-Atlanta
Good info on ml plays. I also play moneyline plays usually teams that are favored by 6 to 8. They seem to have the best value. I mean if you do that the books are basically telling you who will win. Of course you have to wager more money to win less but I still think there is value in it if you can pick winners consistantly.
Good Luck!
Scott-Atlanta