Dr. Bob
NY JETS (-8.0) 24 Cincinnati 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
The 0-5 Bengals showed signs of life last week in Dallas and that game triggers a nice buy signal on Cincy. The Bengals apply to a very good 24-3 ATS subset of a 62-24 ATS situation that is based on last week?s competitive loss while the Jets apply to a negative 19-64-1 ATS situation. The Jets have obviously been a much better team than Cincinnati so far this season, but the Bengals are certainly better than what they?ve shown offensively so far and the last two games in which Carson Palmer has played have produced 23 points against the Giants in New York and 22 points at Dallas (Palmer sat out the Bengals? 12-20 home loss to Cleveland). Palmer has been downgraded to out for this game and the Bengals' offense is likely to struggle with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, as he was horrible in the 12-20 loss to Cleveland (3.7 yards per pass play) and has averaged just 4.8 yppp in his career. The Jets, while better than average defensively overall, are just average against the pass, but Fitzpatrick likely won't be able to take advantage of that. The Bengals could be a pretty good team once the offense gets going when Palmer returns to health, as Cincy?s defense has played very well in allowing just 5.2 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average stop unit. New York is just 0.1 yppl better than average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), so Cincinnati actually has an advantage over the Jets? offense. My math model favors New York by 13 points with Fitzgerald playing. The situations favoring the Bengals are very strong but the line value is now heavily in favor of the Jets. I'll pass.
WASHINGTON (-13.5) 30 St. Louis 14
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
Bad teams usually play much better coming out of their bye week and the Rams apply to a 25-5 ATS situation that is based on that premise, in addition to a 157-89-5 ATS situation that plays on bad teams that have been bad offensively in recent games. Washington, meanwhile, applies to a negative 22-58-2 ATS letdown situation based on their recent success and if ever there were a letdown situation for the Redskins, this would be it. It will be extremely tough for Washington to get charged for this game after consecutive upset wins over division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia. The Redskins could letdown and still win big based on how bad the Rams have been. St. Louis has been out-scored by an average of 11-37 while being out-gained 4.5 yards per play to 6.6 yppl and Washington is 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively. My math model favors Washington by 23 points in this game, so even a huge letdown should result in a pretty easy win.
Oakland vs. NEW ORLEANS (-7.5)
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
HOUSTON (-3.0) 24 Miami 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
Houston started the season with 3 straight road games, the last of which was a heart-breaking overtime loss in Jacksonville, and their home opener was ruined last week by blowing a 20 point 4th quarter lead. The Texans are better than their 0-4 record suggests but they?ve been just average offensively so far this season and have been 0.6 yards per play worse than average defensively (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) ? which is surprising given how well the young defense played down the stretch last season. Houston has potential to be a good team, but Miami is proving that they are a good team. The Dolphins beat New England and San Diego in consecutive games and now rate at 0.2 yppl better than average on both sides of the ball. Miami has been horrible in special teams, but my math model favors the Dolphins by 1 point in this game. Miami, however, applies to a negative 22-50-1 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their consecutive upset wins and Houston applies to a solid 55-24-4 ATS home bounce-back situation. With the math favoring Miami and the situations favor Houston I?ll just pass on this game.
Baltimore 18 INDIANAPOLIS (-4.0) 17
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
The Colts are a below average team that was lucky to win at Houston last week after trailing by 20 points late in the game (3 turnovers by backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels spurred the comeback win). Indy has been just average offensively (5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and Peyton Manning is clearly off his game ? although he is improving after a miserable opening game against Chicago. The Indianapolis defense has allowed 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team and that unit has been 0.4 yppl worse than average in two games without injured NFL Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. Baltimore?s defense isn?t quite as strong without CB Samari Rolle and S Dawan Landry, who both only played the first two games, but the Ravens have still by 0.8 yppl better than average defensively in their last two games (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team) and they have an edge over the Colts? offense. The Ravens aren?t much offensively, averaging just 4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, but my math model favors Baltimore by ? a point in this contest and would only favor the Colts by 3 points if Manning snaps out of his slump and goes back to his form of recent years. The Ravens plus the points are a good value play as long as the Ravens? two injured backup cornerbacks Fabian Washington (he?s started the last two weeks but was injured last week) and Derrick Martin aren?t both out.
ATLANTA 23 Chicago (-2.5) 20
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
The Falcons have played well at home and last week they stepped up an beat a solid Packers team in Green Bay. I had Atlanta as a Strong Opinion in that game based on their ability to run the ball against a suspect Packers? run defense, as rookie quarterback Matt Ryan needs a good rushing attack to be effective in the passing game. The Falcons are the league?s best running team, averaging 5.8 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team) and they should be able to run against a Bears defense that is much better defending the pass (0.9 yards per pass play better than average) than they are defending the run (3.9 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average defensive team). Atlanta?s defense is still bad, so the Bears? mediocre attack should move the ball well, but my math model favors the Bears by 2 ? points ? so the line is fair. I?ll favor the Falcons to cover at home on the basis of a 74-27-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation, but they?ve followed every win with a bad game and that will keep me from playing them as a Best Bet. I?d consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion at +3 or more (-115 odds or better).
MINNESOTA (-13.0) 30 Detroit 17
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
Make the predicted score 30-14 if Jon Kitna does not start for Detroit.
Detroit has been unbelievably bad so far this season, getting out-scored by an average of 16.5 to 36.8 and out-gained 4.6 yards per play to 7.0 yppl. Minnesota is coming off a thrilling Monday night win over New Orleans, but the Vikings are still just 2-3 and can?t afford to take any game lightly. Detroit applies to a 49-19-3 ATS contrary situation that plays on winless teams as big dogs, so I?m not going to go against the Lions here, but my math model favors Minnesota by 16 points if Detroit quarterback Jon Kitna is healthy enough to play (he missed practice on Wednesday) and I?d favor the Vikings by about 19 points if Dan Orlovsky is forced to play (and by about 17 ? points with Drew Stanton in). The Math favors Minnesota regardless of who quarterbacks the Lions, but the situation favors the big dog here and I?ll pass.
TAMPA BAY (-1.5) 22 Carolina 16
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
Tampa Bay covered the spread for their 4th consecutive game last week at Denver, and their 13-16 loss as a 3 ? point dog should have them motivated to play well at home against the division rival Panthers. Tampa coach Jon Gruden is 27-12-2 ATS in his career as a favorite or pick following a loss and the Buccaneers are also 25-6-1 ATS in regular season home games when not favored by 3 points or more, including a 30-21 win as a small favorite against the Packers a few weeks ago. Carolina is a solid team that I rate as better than average on both sides of the ball, but the Bucs are a good defensive team too and they should get a boost from having Jeff Garcia back at quarterback in place of the interception prone Brian Griese. Griese threw 6 interceptions in 147 passes this season while Garcia has thrown just 6 picks on 385 passes with the Bucs the last two seasons and has one of the NFL?s all-time lowest interception percentages. My math model does favor Carolina by 2 points, but Tampa Bay would have an edge if Garcia plays close to last year?s standards. The reason for liking the Bucs in this game is a very strong 93-37-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors Tampa Bay and a negative 20-55 ATS road letdown angle that applies to the Panthers. I?d consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at -1 or pick and I?d take Tampa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or better.
DENVER (-3.5) 28 Jacksonville 24
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
Denver is 4-1 but the Broncos have won 3 games by 3 points or less and they have a porous defense that?s allowed 6.4 yards per play this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). The offense is just as good as the defense is bad, as Jay Cutler and company have averaged 6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. The offense won?t be as good this week without top running back Selvin Young (266 yards at 5.7 ypr) and productive TE Tony Scheffler, who has compiled 259 yards on the 23 passes thrown to him (11.3 yards per attempt). Cutler has averaged a good 7.4 yards per pass attempt throwing to everyone else, but his numbers should still be good in this game against a Jacksonville defense that can?t defend the pass (7.2 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average defense) and is also worse than average defending the run. The Jaguars have been hurt offensively this season due to the loss of 3 starting offensive linemen, as normally very productive backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor have combined for just 3.6 ypr. Quarterback David Garrard is also struggling (just 5.4 yppp) and the Jags rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively after 5 games. That unit should put up better than average numbers today against Denver?s bad defense, but my math model still favors the Broncos by 7 points in this game. There are no situations favoring either team, but Denver is now just 7-27 ATS as a favorite of more than 3 points the week after a victory in the post-John Elway era, including 0-2 ATS this season. I?ll pass.
Green Bay vs. SEATTLE (-2.0)
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
Philadelphia (-5.0) 20 SAN FRANCISCO 19
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
The Eagles have out-gained their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 4.7 yppl but have a 2-3 record to show for it after consecutive upset losses to Chicago and Washington. Losing consecutive games as a favorite is not generally a good omen and the Eagles apply to a negative 45-87-3 ATS situation that is based on that premise, but Philly?s deceiving record makes them an underrated team. San Francisco is a decent team that I rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively, 0.1 yppl better than average defensively and 1.4 points better than average in special teams, but my math model favors the Eagles by 7 ? points in this game. In addition to the situation going against the Eagles, the Niners apply to a solid 122-57-8 ATS statistical indicator, so I?ll lean with the Niners despite the fact that the line should be higher.
Dallas (-5.0) 27 ARIZONA 25
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
Dallas is clearly one of the top 3 teams in the NFL (along with the Giants and Redskins) but the Cowboys apply to a negative 22-57-2 ATS road favorite letdown situation this week while Arizona applies to a solid 54-20-5 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Those angles are 8-1 ATS for the home dog when both apply to the same game and Arizona is certainly capable of competing in this game. However, the absence of star WR Anquan Boldin, who has 366 yards on 35 passes thrown to him, is tough to overcome even with Larry Fitzgerald still available for Kurt Warner to thrown passes to. The problem is that teams can now simply double-cover Fitzgerald without having to worry about Boldin. Arizona has been 1.5 yards per pass play better than average for the season (7.2 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average team), but the Cardinals were just 0.1 yppp better than average last week against Buffalo without Boldin (6.1 yppp against a Bills defense that would allow 6.0 yppp on the road to an average team). Arizona?s defense also hasn?t been as good without sack specialist Bertrand Berry the last 2 games (he had 3 sacks in the first 3 games) and my math model favors Dallas by 8 points after adjusting for Boldin and Berry. I?ll still lean with Arizona based on the strong technical support.
SAN DIEGO (-5.0) 25 New England 19
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Oct-12 - Stats Matchup
The Patriots? 13-38 home loss to Miami in week 3 appears to be an aberration, as their other 3 performances have been pretty consistent, so I?ve decided to discard that performance to see how the Patriots would stack up against the Chargers in this game. New England?s offense wasn?t as good last week as the 30 points they scored against the 49ers suggests, as the Patriots averaged just 4.8 yards per play in that game against a Niners? defense that would allow 5.1 yppl at home to an average team. That -0.3 yppl rating is the same as their offensive rating for the 3 games other than the Miami game and I believe that is the best rating for the Patriots? offense going forward. There is a huge difference in the Patriots? rating with and without the Miami game, as New England rates at 0.6 yppl worse than average using all 4 games this season (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow average 5.0 yppl against an average team), but their defensive rating is 0.2 yppl better than average if you exclude the Miami game. A bit better than average defensively is how I projected the Patriots? defense before the season started and I think they are more likely to be around that rating going forward. The Chargers have out-gained their opponents 6.0 yppl to 5.5 yppl this season and they rate at 0.9 yppl better than average offensively and 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense. It appears that big play WR Chris Chambers will probably not play this week after severely spraining his ankle last week and San Diego would be 0.7 yppl better than average offensively without Chambers. After putting all those numbers together and throwing in special teams (New England has the best special teams in the NFL) I get San Diego by 6 points with a total of 43 ? points, which is right around the number ? so it looks like the oddsmakers excused the Patriots? one bad outing as a fluke too. There are no significant situations favoring either side in this game and I'll call for a 6 point Chargers' victory.
NY Giants (-7.5) 24 CLEVELAND 17
05:35 PM Pacific Time Monday, Oct-13 - Stats Matchup
The Browns have not come close to resembling the high-scoring team of last season, as quarterback Derek Anderson has simply not been able to connect with his receivers down the field. Anderson has thrown the ball to star WR Braylon Edwards 30 times this season for a total of just 95 yards as Edwards is up against double and triple teaming. Getting Donte Stallworth in the lineup this week will help, as he has yet to play and will cause defenses to shade a safety towards his side, but Cleveland still is probably a below average offense that won?t have too many opportunities to score against a very good Giants defense that has allowed just 4.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The Giants are clicking on offense too at 6.8 yppl, but Cleveland?s defense has been solid since allowing 7.9 yppl to the Cowboys in their opener (they?ve now allowed 5.5 yppl for the season against teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). My math model favors New York by 13 ? points, but bad teams coming off their bye week tend to be very good bets as big home underdogs. In fact, teams with losing records (after 3 games or more) coming off their bye week are an incredible 24-3 ATS as home underdogs of 6 points. The Giants have covered 10 straight on the road, but I don?t want to mess with a 24-3 ATS situation so I?ll pass.