Wunderdog
Mlb
Game: Seattle at New York Yankees (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -1.5 runs +150 (runline) (risk 3 to win 4.5)
Darrell Rasnor made six starts for the Yankees last year and gave up 3 runs or less in five of them. Rasnor was promoted from Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he was off to a 4-0 start with an 0.87 ERA. Carlos Silva has given the Mariners more than expected, and has pitched well, but the Yankees have given him fits. His last two starts against the Yankees show 9.1 innings and 18 hits, and an ERA of 9. The Mariners are in a free-fall, losing four straight and eight of ten. The offense has been a no-show, producing just 4 runs in the last three games. The Yanks were 6-2 last year going for the sweep at home in a three game series and we expect them to win this one rather convincingly.
Game: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +145 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.4)
The Royals certainly know Aaron Laffey, as three of his ten big league starts have come vs. the Royals. The Tribe had one good stretch this season winning five straight, but otherwise have had trouble finding the win column (9-16). Of those 25 games, 14 produced 3 runs or less. It puts a lot of pressure on a young pitcher to perform, knowing his team is having trouble scoring runs. Gil Meche has pitched below his career averages this season, and was bombed by the Tribe earlier this season, and you know he will have a purpose out there today. He had won three of four vs. the Indians prior to that. The Royals are the team with the value here, as the Tribe hasn't gotten it in gear yet and Laffey is certainly not the quality, or experience, of Meche, at least at this stage of his career.
Game: San Francisco at Philadelphia (1:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +158 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.7)
Tim Lincecum is worth a shot at any underdog odds in any game, especially in this price range. He has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his six starts, and 1 run or less in four of them. He simply keeps the Giants in the game every time he takes the mound. Cole Hamels got out of the gate quickly, pitching to an 0.82 ERA over his first three starts, but has pitched to a 4.64 ERA over his last three, allowing three HR's in his last two. The Giants have played good baseball of late winning six of their last 10, and five of their last eight on the road. Philly bats have been silenced over the last six where they have scored 3 or less in four of them. We like the Giants to come away with the win in Philly today.
Game: Milwaukee at Houston (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)
We backed the Stros last night and they came through for us. As they go for the sweep, they must face Ben Sheets. We like this game to be a low-scoring one. The Brewers are 17-12 UNDER this season including 13-8 UNDER vs. right-handers and 9-5 UNDER in day games, where their defense plays very well (3.8 runs per game allowed). Houston is 19-12 UNDER including 15-10 UNDER vs. RHP and 7-4 UNDER in day games. Houston's offense has been very good at home but Sheets and his 1.64 ERA should hold them down here. We look for this one to come in UNDER 9 runs.
Game: New York Mets at Arizona (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Arizona +109 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)
No team has a better record than the D-Backs this year. We backed them on the runline yesterday and today we'll back them again, this time on the moneyline. The name on the back of the Mets pitcher's jersey today has this line where it is. Santana is great, but Haren has been his equal thus far this year through seven games, posting a 3.13 ERA, allowing just 13 earned runs, 32 hits, 3 home runs and 7 walks in 37 innings. At home, he's 4-0 witha 1.69 ERA! So call this a wash or close to it. What happens when these pitchers take a seat? The Mets' bullpen has a 6.30 road ERA this season. Arizona's at home boasts a 3.18 ERA. How about offense? No contest. The Mets are averaging 4.6 runs per game while Arizona is averaging 5.9 per game (6.7 at home). The Mets are just 4-14 the past two seasons vs. teams that average over 5.2 runs per game. Santana is just 6-12 vs. teams with a winning record over that same span! Don't get sucked in here by the big name. The play here is on the better team, with the better bullpen and much better offense.
