Dr. Bob
Dr. Bob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 NFL Best Bets this week and one Strong Opinion.
Rotation #199 Houston (+7 1/2) 2-Stars at +7 or more.
Rotation #203 San Francisco (+5) 2-Stars at +4 or more.
Rotation #205 Atlanta (+7) Strong Opinion at +7 or more.
As always, the analysis of the rest of the games can be found on my ******** in the free analysis section (use the menu and look under football to NFL and over to Free Analysis or use the game link at the bottom of the NFL page.
2 Star Selection
** Houston 24 JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
Houston has had to start the season with a 3rd consecutive road game due to the postponement of their week 2 home game. Playing a 3rd straight road game in the NFL is generally a bad thing (88-117-1 ATS), but teams that lost the first 2 of those 3 games both as underdogs are actually 27-13-1 ATS in that 3rd road game. Houston, meanwhile, is 23-8-1 ATS in their history as an underdog after consecutive losses, including 6-2 ATS under coach Kubiak, so don?t overreact to the Texans? first two games. Houston has obviously not played up to expectations so far, but facing two of the best defensive teams in the league on the road ( Pittsburgh and Tennessee ) is bound to make a team look bad. Houston had a very good offense last season and quarterback Matt Schaub has still averaged 6.5 yards per pass play as the Texans? quarterback (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Houston has also found a running back in rookie Steve Slaton, who has run for 151 yards at 5.1 ypr in 2 games, so the Texans are still a better than average offensive team that should be able to score on Jaguars? defense that has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. The Jaguars have the reputation as being a good defensive team, but they were just average defensively last season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and have certainly not been good this year. Jacksonville ?s offense hasn?t been good either thanks to an offensive line missing 3 starters. The Jagars lost starting C Brad Meester for half the season in training camp and then lost both starting guards for the season in game 1. The result has been an inconsistent rushing attack that has averaged only 4.0 ypr (against teams that would allow 4.2 ypr) and a quarterback (David Garrard) that doesn?t have time to find open receivers down the field. Garrard has completed 66% of his passes, but he?s averaged just 9.8 yards per completion and a sorry 5.0 yards per pass play after the 9 sacks are taken into account. The line did play well last week against the Colts and the subs will certainly get better with more experience, so I do still rate the Jaguars? offense as better than average even though they?ve averaged just 4.5 yppl in their first 3 games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl). Houston ?s defense was a bit below average last season and they have started this season about the same (5.4 yppl allowed to mediocre Tennessee and Pittsburgh offenses that would average 5.3 yppl at home against an average defensive team). I think there is a ton of potential for Houston to improve defensively this season with all the young stars in the defensive front 7, but I rate that unit a bit worse than average currently. Overall my ratings favor Jacksonville by just 5 ? points and using this year?s games only would favor the Jaguars by just 4 ? points. In addition to the line value favoring Houston , the Jaguars apply to a negative 20-55-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation. I?ll take Houston in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
2 Star Selection
** San Francisco 26 NEW ORLEANS (-5.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
I really wanted to make the 49ers a Best Bet last week against Detroit (my ratings favor them by 13 points), but a negative 21-58-2 ATS situation that applied to the Niners caused me to downgrade San Francisco to a Strong Opinion. The oddsmakers and the public still aren?t giving enough credit to the 49ers for being a good team this season, as San Francisco has clearly been better than the Saints. The Niners won at Seattle two weeks ago with a 5.8 yards per play to 4.9 yppl advantage and they dominated Detroit 6.2 yppl to 4.4 yppl in a 31-13 home win last week. San Francisco?s only blemish was a fluke opening day loss to Arizona in which the Niners averaged 6.8 yppl while allowing the explosive Cardinals? attack just 4.3 yppl. San Francisco was -5 in turnover margin against the Cardinals with 4 of those being lost fumbles, so that loss should be considered random bad luck and not a mark against the Niners (I actually consider that game a huge plus for them). San Francisco has out-gained their 3 opponents 6.2 yppl to 4.5 yppl as Mike Martz has turned the offense into a force while the defense has gone from decent to very good with added talent surrounding star LB Patrick Willis. New Orleans will be a good test for the defense, as the Saints have averaged 6.5 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 5.2 yppl to an average team. New Orleans , while better than San Francisco offensively, is still having problems on defense, as evidenced by the 6.3 yppl that they?ve allowed (to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). New Orleans is 1.3 yppl better than average offensively this season, but they are 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. The Niners, meanwhile, have been 0.6 yppl better than average on offense and 0.8 yppl better than average defensively ? for an overall edge of 0.6 yppl over the Saints (+1.4 yppl to +0.8 yppl). The 49ers also have better special teams and my ratings only favor the Saints by 1 ? points in this game while using this year?s stats only would favor the 49ers by 2 points. The technical analysis is a bit confusing, as the Niners apply to a 3-20-4 ATS subset of a 27-72-1 ATS road letdown situation while New Orleans applies to a negative 20-55-1 ATS early season home favorite situation. San Francisco also applies to a very good 17-2-1 ATS early season indicator that plays on winning teams that were losing teams last year (that the public hasn?t figured out is good yet), and the Niners apply to a very strong 55-13-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is actually 1-0 ATS in the only game that intersected with that 3-20-4 ATS situation that SF applies to. Overall the technical analysis favors the Niners a bit and my ratings favor San Francisco to cover as well. I?ll take San Francisco in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 or more.
Strong Opinion
Atlanta 19 CAROLINA (-7.0) 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 28-Sep-08
Atlanta has beaten up on two of the worst teams in the league, Detroit and Atlanta , but they lost 9-24 at Tampa Bay in their only road game of the year and my first thought was that something similar would happen here. However, the Falcons have been better than expected even after compensating for playing two of their games against the Lions and Chiefs. Rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 6.9 yards per pass play, but those numbers are skewed by a couple of long passes and he?s unlikely to continue to average 15 yards per completion. Ryan?s poor 53% completion rate is a better indicator of his future performance and I rate Ryan as 1.1 yards per pass play worse than average. Even with that being the case the Falcons still have a decent offense thanks to the running of Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, who have combined for 552 rushing yards at 6.1 ypr. That average isn?t too much of a fluke given that Turner has averaged 5.7 ypr on his 287 career carries and Norwood has averaged 6.1 ypr on 233 career carries. Teams that can run that well are generally pretty good bets as underdogs even if their pass attack isn?t good and the Falcons apply to a very strong 55-13-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is 21-1 ATS more recently. Carolina is struggling offensively but solid on defense, as is usually the case, and my ratings favor the Panthers by 7 ? points ? so the line is pretty fair. Using this year?s games only would favor Carolina by just 4 points but I get 7 points if I adjust Ryan?s numbers to reflect a more reasonable yards per catch average (since a few long gains have skewed his average). Carolina is only 8-19-1 ATS as a favorite of 4 points or more under coach John Fox so the Panthers are not to be trusted laying big points. While I should be betting Atlanta based on that 55-13-2 ATS indicator and a fair line, I am having a tough time pulling the trigger since my first instinct was that they?d lose by about 10 points in this game. I?ll probably regret passing on the Falcons as a Best Bet, but I?ll consider Atlanta a Strong Opinion in this game at +7 or more.