Sunday Service Plays

[the duke]

Dr. Bob


3 Star Selection
*** PITTSBURGH (-7.0) 30 Cincinnati 14

05:15 PM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
Don?t let Cincinnati ?s 35-6 win over Tennessee fool you. The Bengals are still bad team and they were out-gained by the Titans 6.1 yards per play to 5.7 yppl in that seemingly dominant win. Cincy also hasn?t played well in consecutive games all season, as the Bengals are 0-4 ATS after a pointspread win. Last week?s big win sets Cincinnati up in a negative 24-61-2 ATS road letdown situation and Pittsburgh applies to a 63-28-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that they have the characteristics of a good home favorite. That wasn?t the case last week on a horrible field on Monday night against Miami , but the Steelers have won their 6 home games by an average score of 26-9 this season. The only good thing about Cincinnati is an offense that has been 0.4 yards per play better than average this season, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack. However, Pittsburgh ?s defense has a significant advantage over that unit, as the Steelers have yielded just 4.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. The Steelers have been just average offensively but Cincy has given up 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team, so Pittsburgh should move the ball well like they did in the first meeting (they averaged 6.6 yppl in a 24-13 win at Cincinnati). Pittsburgh?s most productive receiver, Santonio Holmes, is likely to miss this game, but quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has only been 0.1 yppl worse in 2 other games that Holmes has missed this season. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 11 points in this game and the situation is favorable, so I?ll take Pittsburgh in a 3- Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 2-Stars from -7 ? to -9 points.


2-Star Total
**UNDER (42) - Atlanta 18 ST. LOUIS (-3.0) 16

10:00 AM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
The Rams may be without starting quarterback Marc Bulger, who suffered a concussion last week, but there really has been no difference between Bulger and backup Gus Frerotte in compensated yards per pass play ? although Frerotte is more interception prone. The Rams? offense is horrible regardless of who is at quarterback, as that unit has averaged only 4.5 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. Atlanta is a bit worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team), but the Falcons stop unit has a significant edge over the Rams? offense. Atlanta ?s offense is also at a disadvantage, as the Falcons have averaged only 4.8 yppl with Joey Harrington at quarterback (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while St. Louis is only 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl). I really don?t understand how the total can be 42 points in this game, as Rams games have averaged 40.8 points (against teams that combine to average 42.1 total points per game) while Atlanta has averaged only 36.3 total points per game against teams that combine to average 40.7 total points. If Rams? games are 1.3 points lower scoring than normal and Falcons? games are 4.4 points lower scoring than normal, then you?d expect this game to be 5.7 points lower scoring than normal. The average points in a game is 42.8 this season and the median points is 41 ? points, so a total of 36 or 37 points results from that simple analysis. Atlanta is 7-4 Under this year, including 5-0 Under on the road while the Rams are 8-3 Under this season. My math model projects just 34 ? points, and I?ll go UNDER 41 points or more in a 2-Star Best Bet.


Strong Opinion
DALLAS (-7.0) 30 Green Bay 17

05:15 PM Pacific, 29-Nov-07
Green Bay has been red-hot since their bye week, winning and covering all 5 games heading into the NFC showdown with fellow 10-1 team Dallas. The Packers are certainly capable of competing in this game, but they apply to a very negative 24-75-3 ATS road letdown situation tonight while Dallas applies to a very strong 74-27-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I?d love to play Dallas here as a Best Bet, but the line is a little high. Green Bay is no longer a one-dimensional offense team since RB Ryan Grant burst onto the scene with 467 rushing yards at 4.6 ypr in 5 games since taking over the running back position. Brett Favre is having an exceptional season and the Packers are actually rate the same offensively as the Cowboys? potent attack (both are 1.2 yards per play better than average). The Packers are 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, but that?s not nearly as good as a stingy Cowboys? defense that is 0.9 yppl better than average since star LB Greg Ellis began playing in week 4. Overall my math model favors Dallas by just 4 points since Green Bay is better on special team, but the situation and statistical indicator favoring Dallas are both strong enough to give up some line value. I?ll consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at -7 or less and I?d take Dallas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.


Strong Opinion
INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) 28 Jacksonville 15

10:00 AM Pacific, 02-Dec-07
The Colts have a slim one game lead in the AFC South over the Jaguars, so this is an important contest. In the first meeting Jaguars quarterback David Garrard was injured and backup Quinn Gray was horrible in his place. Garrard is back and playing well (0 interceptions this season), but the Jaguars apply to a very negative 24-75-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Colts apply to a solid 63-28-4 ATS statistical profile indicator (they have the statistical characteristics of a team that should be good as a home favorite). Indianapolis hasn?t been as explosive offensively without star WR Marvin Harrison but the Colts have been very good defensively this season (4.5 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). Jacksonville ?s defense hasn?t been nearly as good as it?s been in recent years, as the Jags have allowed 5.6 yppl to teams that would only combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The problem is that the line is high according to my math model, which favors the Colts by just 4 points after adjusting for the Colts? pass attack without Harrison and the Jags having Garrard back at the helm. The Colts traditionally out-play their stats by a couple of points, so a fair line of 6 points could be justified and 7 is too high. I?ll consider Indianapolis a Strong Opinion at -7 or less and for a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 or less.

 

[the duke]

Wunderdog

Game: Seattle at Philadelphia (Sunday 12/02 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 42 -110


This is the first game with high confidence in the UNDER, but not quite as high as the other two.


Game: New York Giants at Chicago (Sunday 12/02 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 42.5 -110

THis is extremely high confidence, earlier the better.


Game: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (Sunday 12/02 8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 46 -110




Comp

Game: Buffalo at Washington (Sunday 12/02 1:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: Washington -5.5

 

[the duke]

Robert Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take #361 New York Giants (-130) over Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)

It may not seem it, but this is a revenge game. The Bears embarrassed a beat-up Giants team last year in the Meadowlands - capped by Devin Hester's return of a missed field goal - but that was actually a close game for three quarters. Now, it's the Bears defense that is banged up and the Giants are going to execute some turnabout. Chicago has had two seemingly "season saving" wins this year - at Green Bay and at Philly - only to turn around and lose as a favorite the next week. They aren't a favorite here, but they are going to lose. If Brandon Jacobs does play (he's 50-50 right now) you may want to bump this a Unit.


2-Unit Play. Take #342 Minnesota (-3.5) over Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)

Note: This was mis-posted as a 2-Unit play. It should be a 3.5-Unit pick. Per company policy, we do not change anything about our plays once they have been posted. However, this should be a 3.5-Unit pick. I apologize.


The Vikings had won 10 straight against the Lions before dropping a trip to Detroit in Week 2. The Lions are a sinking ship right now and should be physically manhandled by Minnesota on both sides of the ball. Adrian Peterson will be back this week, but the key is that I think Minnesota will get more confident QB play at home. The Lions secondary can't exploit Minnesota's weakness on offense and we're backing the far superior defense here. Detroit is 4-10-1 ATS in divisional games while the Vikings are 10-4-1 ATS against the NFC North.


3-Unit Play. Take #357 Cleveland (+1) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)

We have a high-flying Browns club matched up against an Arizona team that is caught in a Look Ahead-Letdown spot. They have to be a little deflated after that poor loss to a bad San Fran team last week and with a game at Seattle on the horizon I think the Browns will catch the Cards napping. Arizona lost the one indespensible defensive player that had this week (Adrian Wilson) and he was the one holding together a suspect secondary. Cleveland has covered six straight and are 9-2 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record and Arizona is 2-6 ATS as a favorite and 4-12 ATS after scoring 30 or more.


2-Unit Play. Take First Half: #354 Carolina (-1.5) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)

San Fran is 0-3 ATS against the first half line in games in the Eastern Time Zone this year. They have been outscored 142-43 in the first 30 minutes of their last 10 games in the EST. The Panthers are 9-1 ATS against San Fran and I think they jump out to a positive start here.


2-Unit Play. Take #352 Philadelphia (-3) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)

Seattle is another team that is bad on the road, bad on grass, and bad in the Eastern Time Zone. They have won Three straight, but the last two have been more of a result of fortunate, timely turnovers by their opponents (that were mostly due to incompetance by Rex Grossman and Gus Frerotte). Philadelphia has shown some life and I think they build off the momentum of their near-miss against New England. Seattle is 5-11-1 ATS on the road, and Philly is 7-2 ATS against teams with a winning record.


1-Unit Play. Take #340 Washington (-6) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 2)

I normally stay very far away from these games - games laced with incredible emotion due to a death or some tragic off-field occurrence - but I like the Redskins before the Sean Taylor tragedy and I'm going with them here. They have underachieved all season and I think that with some focus and emotion they will put together the type of performance to justify my opinion of them. The Skins won't turn the ball over six times in this game and I see them controlling both lines of scrimmage.

 

[the duke]

ASA


5* NY Giants

3* Arizona

3* New Orleans

 

[the duke]

Spylock


12/02/07 Jacksonville Jaguars
1:05 PM Indianapolis Colts -6.5 Indianapolis Colts -6.5

1 rating


12/02/07 Denver Broncos -3.5
4:10 PM Oakland Raiders Oakland Raiders +3.5

5 rating Big play


12/02/07 New York Giants -1.5 New York Giants -1.5
4:20 PM Chicago Bears

1 rating

 

[the duke]

Point Train

6-UNIT BEST BET FAVORITE FINISHER

The Point Train?s top NFL play of the week focuses on a favorite that will finish off its opponent quickly. This chalk has one MAJOR EDGE that will give them the PERFECT ANGLE at a blowout victory. Our 6-UNIT BEST BET is supported by an 80% winning trend that will validate this selection. Jump on board this winner now while the line is low!!

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rating: 6 units


NEW ORLEANS (-) over Tampa Bay at 4:15 pm EST The Saints have been a bit schizophrenic this year with inconsistent performances from week to week. But this week has all the makings of one of their great weeks. New Orleans is catching Tampa Bay at a great time, as starting QB Jeff Garcia is doubtful for the game with a balky back. The Buccaneers offense is one predicated on efficiency and Garcia is as efficient as they come. But his likely replacement, 2nd-year QB Bruce Gradkowski, isn?t nearly as efficient. The Bucs don?t score much as is. With Garcia out of the lineup, scoring will be a major premium. New Orleans pounded a depleted Carolina team 31-6 last week and it will do the same to a depleted Tampa Bay team. If the Bucs can?t pass, and they won?t with Garcia out, they?ll struggle to move the ball. New Orleans? major weakness is pass defense but that won?t be an issue with Garcia sidelined. The Saints are 10th in the NFL in rush defense and should have no issues shutting down the Tampa run game. Tampa Bay has struggled as the underdog in recent games, going 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road dog and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as the dog overall. New Orleans has done great as the favorite recently, going 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a small favorite of 3 points or less. The Saints were embarrassed in their first meeting with the Bucs in Tampa. This weekend they?ll return the favor with a big win, preserving their chances at the postseason. Take New Orleans.




Point Train NFC DOG DOMINATOR

DETROIT LIONS +4 -vs-Minnesota Vikings

Rating: 3 units



Detroit (+) over MINNESOTA at 1:00 pm EST At first glance Minnesota?s 41-17 road win over the Giants last week looks mighty impressive. But it really wasn?t all that impressive. It was really more of a tribute to Eli Manning?s inability to throw to the right team. Manning threw four awful picks to the Vikings, which led directly to 28 points, with three being taken back for a score. Minnesota had only extended drive the entire game and totaled just 251 yards for the game. That won?t cut it against a Detroit team that is desperate to make the playoffs. The Lions match up very well with the Vikings. Minnesota?s offense is almost all rush-based and Detroit can stop the run. The Lions limited the Vikings to just 3.7 ypc in beating them 20-17 in the first meeting this year and they should be able to do the same this time. They are 9th in the NFL in rush defense. Minnesota might be good at stopping the run but it can?t stop the pass. That is where the Lions excel as they are 7th in the NFL with 251 passing yards per game. The Vikings will come back to earth in this one as the Lions sweep the season series. Grab

 

[the duke]

Michael Cannon


30 Dime
EAGLES

10 Dime
VIKINGS
CARDINALS

10 Dime
NUGGETS

5 Dime
STEELERS

 

[the duke]

Ben Burns

NFL

UNDER lions/vikings (44 or better)

Game: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Game Time: 12/2/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Detroit and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. These teams combined for 37 points when they met at Detroit in September. That over/under line was below the key number of 44 while this afternoon's line currently sits above that important number. I feel that gives us excellent value with the UNDER. Yes, the Vikings come off back to back high-scoring victories. However, they've also seen the UNDER go a profitable 6-0-1 the last seven times that they were coming off back to back wins. Additionally, the Vikings have seen the UNDER go 19-9-1 the last 29 times that they played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 45 to 49. During the same stretch, the Lions have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 15-4-1 when playing a road game with an over/under line in the same range. Nine of the last 13 series encounters at the Metrodome have fallen UNDER the total. Additionally, Minnesota has finished UNDER the total in nine straight games off a double-digit win and in seven straight off a road win. Look for more of the same here as the final combined score stays well beneath the generous number. *NFC North Total of the Year


PHILADELPHIA (-4 or better)

Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles Game Time: 12/2/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. I feel that the situation strongly favors the home team. For starters, the Eagles have the advantage of playing at home with an early start time vs. a West Coast based team. I've always believed that to be significant. Additionally, the Seahawks are coming off a rather fortunate divisional win (Rams fumbled at the goal line in closing seconds) and have a date with their current primary division rival (Arizona) on deck. Note that Seattle is also an awful 15-35 ATS the last 50 times it was coming off a win over a divisional opponent. Additionally, despite last week's cover, the Seahawks remain a money-burning 5-11-2 ATS their last 17 road games. They're also an ugly 3-11-1 the last 15 times they were listed as non-division road dogs. The Eagles, 13-6 SU and 11-6-2 ATS their last 19 home games played in December, will have some payback on their minds. That's because they lost 42-0, in front of a national Monday Night audience, the last time the Seahawks came to town. Although they lost last week, the Eagles can build some confidence from that game as they were able to hang with the best team in football (New England) every step of the way. As offensive tackle Shawn Andrews had to say: "If we keep playing the way we played today, we can still win out. We're a physical group and we can play with anybody." While Seattle can afford to lose this game, the Eagles cannot. Look for a highly motivated effort from Andy Reid's squad as they climb back to 500 and avenge the 2005 loss with a convincing win of their own. *December Blowout GOM


ARIZONA (-3 or better)

Game: Cleveland Browns vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 12/2/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Cardinals Reason: I'm playing on ARIZONA. The Browns have certainly been a nice story. However, I feel that they'll stumble against an under-rated Arizona squad. While the Browns will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks, the Cardinals are at home for the second straight week and third in the last four. Despite a fortunate win at Baltimore in their most recent road game, the Browns remain below 500 on the road where they've given up more than 28 points per game. Note that the Browns remain a poor 16-30 ATS the last 46 times that they were listed as road underdogs of seven points or less. I successfully played against Arizona last week and they lost outright vs. the 49ers. They've always fared well at home when coming off a home loss though, cashing 16 of their last 22 in that situation. Additionally, I don't think its fluke that the Cardinals have managed a perfect 3-0 ATS record against teams from the AFC North division this season. That's because new coach Whisenhunt was Bill Cowher's assistant and has first-hand knowledge of all the teams in his former division. The Cardinals are also 7-3 ATS their last 10 home games played in the month of December. I believe that they have a significantly better defense than the Browns. The Cardinals' offense has also been better of late as they are averaging 32.3 points their last three games, a field goal better than Cleveland's 29.3. Yes, the Cardinals do have a big divisional showdown with division leader Seattle on deck. However, I don't expect there to be any "looking ahead" as the Cards know that game will be a lot less meaningful if they lose this week and Seattle wins. Look for home field to be the difference as the highly motivated Cardinals continue this season's ATS dominance against teams from the AFC North. *Personal Favorite.



3 game executive report

Chiefs
Panthers
Raiders

 

[the duke]

JIM KRUGER

Bronze 3* Detroit +4
Bronze 3* NY Jets +1.5
Bronze 3* NY Giants -1.5
Bronze 3* Pittsburgh -7
Bronze 3* Tampa Bay /New Orleans UNDER 41.5

 

[the duke]

Steve Budin

SUNDAY'S PICK

50 DIME PLAY
PITTSBURGH-CINCINNATI UNDER


50 DIME PLAY
HOUSTON-TENNESSEE UNDER


Note from Steve Budin


These are two SEPARATE 50 Dime selections.

Do NOT parlay them together; that is not how they are to be played. Plus, as a former bookmaker with 20 years of experience I can tell you that parlays are nothing but sucker bets

Also, do NOT tease these two totals in anyway as these plays are NOT from that crew out of Laughlin, Nevada that specializes in teasers

 

[the duke]

Gary Green / Bluebook Sports

Top Play
Over Ariz/ Cleve


Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

 

[the duke]

Stephen Nover

NFL Total
Double-Dime

ARI / CLE Over 51.0

The Browns rank last in defense. They have surrendered 25 touchdown passes, the most in the NFL. Their secondary is populated with second-stringers.

The Cardinals, though, are in bad shape, too, defensively. They're missing three starters, including their best pass rusher, a cornerback and star safety Adrian Wilson. Much of Arizona's defensive schemes and packages involve Wilson. They are vanilla without him. The 49ers exposed the Cardinals minus Wilson, torching them for 37 points with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. The 49ers had scored 60 points in their previous seven games.

Both teams have strong passing attacks and veteran running backs respectable enough to set up effective play-action fakes. The Cardinals are averaging 32.3 points in their last three games.

The Browns could cause special team damage, too, with Joshua Cribbs, the second-best return man in football next to Devin Hester. The Cardinals signed a new punter this week, Mitch Berger. He has been out of the NFL for two years and is rusty

 

[the duke]

Pointwise Newsletter


Rated Plays

Rating:3
Miami 17 NYJ 13

Rating:3
Cleveland 31 Arizona 30

Rating:4
Houston 22 Tennessee 20

Rating:4
Jacksonville 22 Indy 23

Rating:5
Kansas City 20 SanDiego 19

other games:
STL 20 ATL 10
Wash 23 Buff 13
Minn 27 Det 17
Phil 23 Sea 17
Car 20 SF 17
NO 27 TB 20
Den 23 Oak 16
NYG 26 Chi 20
Pitt 30 Cinci 23



Pointwise Redsheet


Rating:88
Kansas City 22 San Diego 19

Rated:87
Miami,NO,Den,and NE

 

[the duke]

Power Sweep

NFL

4* Ny Giants
3* San Diego
2* Clev
2* Green Bay

Pro Stat Play - Wash Redskins

O/U

3* bills/redskins under 37

3* Bucs/saints Over 42

3* 49ers/Panthers Under 35-

2* Jags/colts Under 45

2* Chargers/Chiefs Over 37-


Computer Corner



Pro Angles

Tampa Bay (3)

System Play (NFL)

Washington

Powers Ratings Play (NFL) Tampa

 

[the duke]

Gold Sheet

KEY RELEASES

HOUSTON by 7 over Tennessee
N.Y. JETS by 13 over Miami
UNDER THE TOTAL in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans

 

[the duke]

Psychic Sports

Members Area

ALL NFL

2 units Minnesota -4
2 units Denver -3.5
2 units New Orleans -3
2 units Carolina -3

5 units Miami -1 WISEGUY

 

[NYMess]

ANy ATS or Executive hoops??
thanks in advance

 

[the duke]

Larry Ness

NFL Oddsmaker's Error GOY (FB run now at 19-3 or 86.4% ATS since Nov 16!)

My Oddsmaker's Error GOY is on the Az Cardinals at 4:05 ET. Let's hear it for the Browns and their 7-4 mark but this is a terrible spot for them. Worse yet, their six-game ATS winning streak has robbed the team of any "line value." Cleveland is playing its third road game in its last four. The team's last four games have been either at home or on the road against a division foe. Here, the Browns must travel to the desert, to meet an Arizona team playing back-to-back home games for the first time this year. The Cards are off an embarrassing OT loss to the hapless 49ers, which gives us even more "line value" in this one. While the Browns have been quite a story TY, let's note that the team is just 2-3 SU on the road (will need to win to cover here!), winning at the Rams (StL is 0-5 SU at home in '07) and at Baltimore, which is 1-10 ATS in '07 (you know about the ending to that game!). The Browns own the NFL's worst defense, ranking last in both YPG (397.9) and PPG (28.3). That's good news for Arizona, as QB Kurt Warner has led the Cards to an average of 32.3 PPG the last three games, completing 67.9% of his passes, throwing for an average of 318.0 YPG with a ratio of 7-3. Ken Whisenhunt and his key assistants came from Pittsburgh and the Cards have been great vs AFC North teams this year, going 2-1 SU and ATS. Seattle (three-time defending NFC West champs) lost here in Week 2, Pittsburgh (8-3 now) was 3-0 while outscoring opponents 97-26 when it lost here in Week 4 and Detroit lost here in Week 10, when it was 6-2. At this price, Arizona is my

Oddsmaker's Error GOY
Arizona Cardinals

 

[the duke]

MARC LAWRENCE:

Angle of the Week
ONCE IS ENOUGH
PLAY AGAINST any .444 < NFL road dog off a SU division road dog win of +6 > points.


ATS W-L Record Since 1989: 14-3-1
Play Against: San Francisco 49ers


Stat of the Week
Jacksonville is 9-0 ATS in Game Twelve of the season the last nine years.


Fast Fact
The Cincinnati Bengals struggle on the road against .700 > opponents, going 1-23 SU & 4-20 ATS



5* philly by 17
4* tenny by 14
3* Tampa by 10

 

[the duke]

Brandon Lovell

Nfl GOY
50*Carolina -3


10* Seattle +3