SPORTS ADVISORS
Kansas City (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS)
Two teams that mustered just single digits last week get together for a non-conference contest when the Falcons host the Chiefs at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay 24-9 as a seven-point road underdog, putting up just three field goals. After an impressive performance in his NFL debut in Week 1, QB Matt Ryan looked much more like the rookie he is, going 13 of 33 for 158 yards, with two INTs and four sacks. RB Michael Turner, who busted out for 220 yards and two TDs in the season opener against Detroit, had just 42 yards, and the Falcons were outgained 311-234, allowing 164 rushing yards.
Kansas City was even worse than Atlanta last week, losing 23-8 to Oakland as a 3?-point home favorite, failing to score until a TD and 2-point conversion late in the fourth quarter. QB Damon Huard lasted just two possessions before getting hurt, going 2 of 4 for 17 yards and an INT, and the Chiefs finished with just 190 total yards (55 rushing). The defense gave up 355 yards, including a whopping 300 on the ground.
Tyler Thigpen (14 of 33, 151 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) replaced Huard last week, and coach Herm Edwards has pegged Thigpen to start against Atlanta.
These two teams haven?t met since 2004, when K.C. administered a 56-10 beatdown laying 3? points at home.
Despite the Chiefs? 0-2 SU start, they are on positive ATS streaks of 7-1 on the highway, 12-6-1 as a non-division road ?dog and 9-2-1 in Week 3. On the flip side, the Falcons are in pointspread funks of 13-23-1 as a non-division home chalk, 4-9 at home and 1-4 after a non-cover.
Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, the straight-up winner is an astounding 27-3-1 ATS, with nine of the 12 underdogs that covered winning outright.
The under for Kansas City is on streaks of 13-3 in September and 9-3 in roadies, but the over for Atlanta is on runs of 8-1 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 5-0 after a non-cover and 5-0 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Oakland (1-1 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Bills look to hold onto a share of first place in the AFC East when they host the Raiders at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Buffalo put up 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to rally for a 20-16 upset of Jacksonville as a four-point road pup. QB Trent Edwards was effective and efficient, going 20-for-25 for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs, though he did lose one fumble. The Bills? defense also yielded just 243 total yards and allowed the Jags to convert just two of 11 third-down attempts.
Oakland beat Kansas City 23-8 as a 3?-point road ?dog, primarily on the strength of 300 rushing yards. First-round draft pick Darren McFadden had 21 carries for 164 yards and a TD, helping offset another poor effort from QB JaMarcus Russell (6 of 17, 55 yards), and the Raiders finished with a whopping 355-190 edge in total yards.
The Raiders have won the last four meetings between these AFC rivals (3-1 ATS), dating to 1999, but they haven?t met since 2005, when Oakland claimed a 38-17 home win as a three-point favorite.
The Bills are on positive ATS runs of 10-4-1 overall, 13-3-1 after a spread-cover, 11-3 at home and 10-3-1 after a SU win. Conversely, the Raiders carry nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 27-55-1 overall, 20-41-2 against the AFC, 6-15 as a non-division road ?dog and 1-6 coming off an ATS win.
The over is on a plethora of runs for both squads, including 5-0 overall for Buffalo, 19-9 for the Bills following a SU win, 7-2 overall for Oakland, 5-1 in September for the Raiders, 4-1 for the Raiders on the road and 14-6 for the Raiders after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
Houston (0-1 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Texans, forced to take an early bye week as Hurricane Ike raged through southeast Texas, get back to work when they travel to LP Field to take on the Titans.
Houston opened the season with a 38-17 loss at Pittsburgh, failing to cover as a 6?-point road ?dog. QB Matt Schaub (25 of 33, 202 yards) passed for one TD and rushed for another, but he also accounted for all three Texans turnovers (2 INTs, 1 fumble) and was sacked five times as Houston finished with just 234 total yards. The Texans were supposed to play their home opener against the Ravens last weekend, but Ike postponed that contest until November.
Tennessee flattened Cincinnati 24-7 last week as a one-point road pup, scoring their second straight upset to begin the season. Kerry Collins (14 of 21, 128 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) was serviceable stepping in for the injured Vince Young, and he was greatly aided by the Titans? 177 rushing yards ? with rookie Chris Johnson netting 109 yards on 19 carries. Tennessee also held Cincy to just 215 total yards and blocked a punt for a TD.
Tennessee has won six straight meetings in this AFC South rivalry (5-1 ATS), including sweeping the last two season series? both SU and ATS. However, the underdog is on a 7-2 ATS streak in this series.
The Texans carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 on the highway, 3-8 against the AFC, 2-5 against winning teams, 3-7 in September and 1-5 as a divisional road ?dog. Meanwhile, the Titans have cashed in six straight September contests and nine of their last 10 in division play.
The over has cashed in the last four meetings between these two. Also, for Houston the over is on runs of 5-1 overall, 8-0 against AFC South rivals and 8-2-1 on the highway. On the flip side, the under streaks for Tennessee including 5-0 overall, 6-0 in September, 11-1-1 after a SU win, 8-1-1 after a spread-cover and 6-2-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
Cincinnati (0-2 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (2-0 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Giants step outside the conference when they host the struggling Bengals in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York trounced St. Louis 41-13 as a hefty nine-point road chalk, racking up an overwhelming 441-201 edge in total yards against the hapless Rams. QB Eli Manning was a steady 20 of 29 for 260 yards with three TDs and no INTs, and RB Brandon Jacobs (15 carries, 93 yards) led a ground attack that netted an even 200 yards.
Cincinnati got beat up by Tennessee 24-7 as a one-point favorite in its home opener, totaling just 215 yards. QB Carson Palmer was 16 of 27 for 134 yards with no TDs and two INTs, and the Bengals also had a punt blocked for a TD.
These squads have met just once this decade, a 23-22 Cincinnati home win in 2004, though the Bengals failed to cash as a six-point chalk.
Including their run through the playoffs, the Giants are on a 10-1 ATS roll, including eight consecutive spread-covers. New York is on further ATS streaks of 16-5 overall and 8-3 against losing teams. The Bengals, meanwhile, are still 8-3 ATS in their last 11 September starts, but otherwise they?re on spread-covering slides of 2-5 overall, 2-5 on the highway and 5-11-1 against winning teams.
The under for Cincinnati is on tears of 7-1 overall, 6-0 versus winning teams, 4-1 on the road and 13-5 in September, but the over has cashed in five of New York?s last seven home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Arizona (2-0 SU and ATS) at Washington (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Cardinals hope to ride the aging arm of QB Kurt Warner to another win when they cross the country to battle the Redskins at FedEx Field.
Arizona routed Miami 31-10 as a 6?-point home chalk, winning and covering as a favorite for the second straight week. Warner went haywire, completing 19 of 24 passes for 361 yards with three TDs and no INTs. That helped the Cards to a whopping 445-236 advantage in total yards, as WRs Larry Fitzgerald (6 catches, 153 yards) and Anquan Boldin (6 catches, 140 yards) both had huge days.
Washington bounced back from its Week 1 loss at the Giants by rallying past New Orleans 29-24 as a one-point home favorite. QB Jason Campbell erased a 24-15 fourth-quarter deficit by leading two TD drives, and he finished 24 of 36 for 321 yards and a TD pass, which went to WR Santana Moss, who finished with 164 receiving yards. The Redskins defense yielded 250 yards, while the offense rolled up 455, and Washington won the turnover battle, 3-1.
The Redskins have won the last six clashes in this rivalry (3-2-1 ATS), including a 21-19 home win last year, though they failed to cash as a nine-point favorite. The underdog is on a 10-4-1 ATS run in the last 15 meetings.
The Cards have gone 17-8 in their last 25 games overall and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 13 roadies, and they are on additional pointspread runs of 6-0 in September and 9-5 in non-division tilts. The Redskins are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall, but they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 10 following a spread-cover and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight as non-division home chalk.
The over for Arizona is on runs of 18-6 overall, 37-14 on the highway and 25-10 inside the conference. The over also cashed in last year?s FedEx Field meeting between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) at New England (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
The Patriots, successfully moving on last week without MVP quarterback Tom Brady, play host to the division rival Dolphins at Gillette Stadium.
With Brady sidelined for the season, New England was hardly the offensive juggernaut it was in 2007, but got enough done to beat the Brett Favre-led Jets 19-10 as a one-point road underdog. In two games this year, the Pats have totaled just 36 points ? which is what they averaged per game last season. QB Matt Cassel, making his first start since high school, avoided mistakes in going 16 of 23 for 165 yards, and Stephen Gostkowski made four field goals.
Miami fell at Arizona 31-10 last week catching 6? points, totaling just 234 yards while allowing 445. QB Chad Pennington (10 of 20, 112 yards, no TDS, no INTs) was pedestrian before yielding to rookie Chad Henne in the fourth quarter.
The host is on a 12-5 ATS streak in this rivalry, with New England cashing in six of the last eight at Gillette Stadium. The Pats rolled to two easy wins over Miami last year, going 1-1 ATS.
The Patriots snapped an 0-7 ATS skid last week, but they remain on negative pointspread streaks of 0-6 at home, 1-6 after a SU win and 1-5 against AFC foes. On the bright side, they are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 against losing teams and 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 divisional games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are mired in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 0-7-2 in September, 5-22-2 inside the division and 17-36-2 against the AFC.
The under has been the play in New England?s last four games and is also 6-0-1 in the Pats? last seven at home. Conversely, the over for Miami is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-0 coming off a SU loss and 4-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Tampa Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) at Chicago (1-1, 1-0-1 ATS)
The Bears, who hit the road for the first two weeks of the season, return to Soldier Field for their home opener against the Buccaneers.
Chicago blew a 17-3 third-quarter lead in losing to Carolina 20-17 last week, getting a push as a three-point road pup. Kyle Orton was a mediocre 19 of 32 for 149 yards, but the offense generated just 10 points, as the other seven came off a blocked punt on the game?s first possession. The Bears defense allowed just 216 total yards, but gave up two second-half TDs.
After a tough four-point home loss at New Orleans to open the season, Tampa Bay coasted past Atlanta 24-9 as a seven-point home chalk last week. QB Brian Griese (18 of 31, 160 yards, 1 TD) was serviceable in place of Jeff Garcia, but RB Earnest Graham was the difference, with 15 carries for 116 yards, including a late 68-yard TD jaunt.
The Bears have won the last two battles with the Bucs, but Tampa is 3-1 ATS over the last four contests, most recently covering as a 13-point road ?dog in a 34-31 overtime loss in 2006.
The Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a SU loss, but they are in pointspread ruts of 4-9 at Soldier Field and 2-7 as a home chalk. The Bucs have also struggled to cash, carrying negative ATS streaks of 1-4 overall (all against the NFC), 3-9 following a SU win of more than 14 points, 2-5 as a visitor and 3-12 in non-division road outings.
The under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these teams. The under is also 4-1 run in Chicago?s last five and 9-3 in Tampa?s last 12 September starts. However, the over is on streask of 6-2 for Tampa Bay overall, 5-0 for Tampa Bay on the road, 22-7-1 for Chicago against the NFC and 15-5 for the Bears at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Carolina (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS) at Minnesota (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Panthers, who have posted come-from-behind wins in the first two weeks, look to keep their good fortune going when they travel to the Metrodome to take on the Vikings.
Carolina erased a 17-3 third-quarter deficit last week to beat Chicago 20-17, pushing as a three-point home favorite. QB Jake Delhomme (12 of 21, 128 yards, 1 INT) had a subpar overall effort as the Panthers finished with just 216 total yards, but he led three second-half scoring drives to give Carolina the win. The Panthers won the turnover battle 2-1, helping offset an early blocked punt that gave the Bears their first TD.
Minnesota fell apart in the second half against Indianapolis last week, blowing a 15-0 lead and losing 18-15 as a two-point home underdog. The Vikings? offense settled for five Ryan Longwell field goals as QB Tarvaris Jackson (14 of 24, 130 yards, one lost fumble) continued to be ineffective, leading coach Brad Childress to announce this week that veteran Gus Frerotte will start at quarterback for the rest of the season.
The Vikes edged the Panthers 16-13 in overtime as a two-point home favorite early in the 2006 season, ending a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Carolina in this series.
The Panthers are on ATS tears of 8-3 on the road, 19-9-2 as a road underdog and 8-2-2 in domes, and they?re also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall. The Vikings, conversely, have failed to cover in five straight games and are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
The under has been the play in five of the last six head-to-head battles between these teams in Minnesota, and the under for Carolina is on streaks of 8-3 against the NFC and 20-8-2 in September. But the over for the Vikings is on runs of 6-2 at the dome, 6-1-1 after a SU loss and 13-3-2 following a pointspread setback.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
St. Louis (0-2 SU and ATS) at Seattle (0-2 SU and ATS)
The three-time defending NFC West champion Seahawks look to get in the win column for the first time in 2008 when they host the rival Rams at Qwest Field.
Seattle suffered a 33-30 overtime upset loss to San Francisco a week ago, getting outscored 20-10 after halftime and failing to cover as a 6?-point home chalk. QB Matt Hasselbeck had his second straight rough outing, going 18 of 36 for 189 yards with no TDS and two INTs ? one of which was returned 86 yards for a TD midway through the third quarter. And the Seahawks defense, which gave up 34 points in Buffalo in Week 1, struggled again.
St. Louis got pounded 41-13 as a nine-point home underdog, gaining just 201 total yards while allowing 441. QB Marc Bulger (20 of 32, 177 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had another forgettable day, getting sacked six times and having his one pick returned for a TD, and the Rams got outgained on the ground, 200-68.
Seattle has ripped off six straight victories (4-2 ATS) in this NFC West rivalry, winning and cashing in both meetings last year, including a 33-6 rout at Qwest laying nine points. That said, the underdog is still on an 8-3 ATS run in this series.
The Seahawks are in a 1-4 ATS skid dating to last season, but they?re still on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 at home, 5-1 in division play, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 following a non-cover. On the flip side, the Rams have dropped five straight pointspread decisions and are on additional ATS slides of 5-13 since the 2007 season opener, 2-6 inside the division, 3-6 in roadies and 7-20-3 in September.
The over for Seattle is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-1 at home and 22-10 against losing teams, and for St. Louis the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-0 after a pointspread defeat and 7-1 after a SU loss. However, both of last year?s clashes between these two stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Detroit (0-2 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Lions, whose 2007 freefall appears to have continued into 2008, make the lengthy trip to the West Coast to face the 49ers at Monster Park.
Detroit followed up a 10-point loss at Atlanta in Week 1 with a 48-25 setback to Green Bay as a three-point home pup. After rallying the Lions from a 21-0 deficit to a 25-24 lead midway through the fourth quarter, QB Jon Kitna (21 of 41, 276 yards, 2 TDs) threw INTs on the next three possessions, with two returned for scores to kill Detroit?s hopes. The Lions were outgained 447-311 and had an 11-minute deficit in time of possession.
San Francisco stunned Seattle 33-30 in overtime last Sunday to cash as a 6?-point road ?dog. QB J.T. O?Sullivan (20 of 32, 321 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) had a big day passing and rushed for another 32 yards, and WR Isaac Bruce (4 catches, 153 yards) found some of his old form. The 49ers? defense keyed a 3-1 turnover edge, picking off Matt Hasselbeck twice ? returning one 86 yards for a TD.
These two teams have met just three times this decade, with San Francisco going 3-0 SU (1-1-1 ATS). In the most recent clash in 2006, the Niners posted a 19-13 road win catching 6? points.
The Lions are 1-9 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. Detroit is on additional pointspread dips of 4-13 on the road (0-5 last five) and 2-8 on grass. The 49ers, despite last week?s upset in Seattle, also carry a bunch of negative ATS trends, including 4-9 overall, 3-8 at home, 3-9 against the NFC and 1-6 after a spread-cover.
The under has cashed in four of the 49ers? last five home games, but the ?over? trends kick in for both teams from there. For Detroit, the over steaks include 10-1 overall, 6-0 in conference play and 5-0 on the highway, while the over is 21-10 in San Francisco?s last 31 games against losing teams and 5-1 in its last six after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New Orleans (1-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Broncos, coming off one of the most controversial wins in years, remain home at Invesco Field at Mile High for another week, hosting the Saints for a non-conference clash.
Denver edged San Diego 39-38 last week in a pick-em contest at home, aided greatly by a botched call in the waning moments on a fumble that should have given the Chargers the ball and the win. Instead, QB Jay Cutler (36 of 50, 350 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT) got a second chance and hit Eddie Royal with a short TD pass, and Cutler and Royal followed by hooking up on the 2-point conversion to get the victory.
Neither team had any trouble moving the ball, with the Broncos finishing with a 486-456 total yardage edge.
New Orleans blew a 24-15 fourth-quarter lead at Washington last week, giving up a pair of late TDs in a 29-24 loss as a one-point road pup. QB Drew Brees (22 of 33, 216 yards, 1 TD) had a fair outing, but he threw two INTs to Chris Horton, with the last coming on the Saints? final drive. The Saints? running game (55 yards) never got going as they finished with just 250 total yards, while allowing 455.
These clubs have met twice since 2000, with Denver going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 34-13 road win laying six points in 2004.
The Broncos have cashed in their first two games of 2008 and they?re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games, but they still remain mired in pointspread slides of 7-18-1 overall, 2-11-1 after a SU win and 5-12 after a spread-cover. The Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven AFC road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five September starts, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a pointspread setback.
For New Orleans, the over is on tears of 7-0 overall, 6-2 on the highway and 39-18-1 against winning teams, and the over for Denver is on streaks of 21-6-1 overall, 12-1-1 at Mile High and 5-0 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Pittsburgh (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The Eagles, coming off a highlight-reel Monday night road loss in Dallas, return home for an instate, non-conference clash against the Steelers.
Philadelphia came up just short against the Cowboys, falling 41-37 but covering as a 6?-point underdog. QB Donovan McNabb (25 of 37, 281 yards, 1 TD, no INTs) had his second straight solid start, though he did lose a fumble to snuff out a fourth-quarter drive at the Dallas 33. The Eagles defense allowed just 68 rushing yards, but yielded 312 yards and three TDs in the air.
Pittsburgh played an absolute yawner by comparison last week, beating Cleveland 10-6 and failing to cash as a six-point road chalk. QB Ben Roethlisberger was a mediocre 12 of 19 for 186 yards and a TD, but he got support from RB Willie Parker (28 carries, 205 yards), and the Steelers won the turnover battle 2-0 while allowing just 208 total yards.
These two teams have met in the past four preseasons, but the last game that counted was a 27-3 Pittsburgh rout in 2004 as a one-point home ?dog.
The Eagles have struggled to get back on track coming off games against Dallas, going 5-9 ATS the last 14 times in that situation, and they are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home starts. But they sport positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-2 after a SU loss and 9-4 against winning teams. The Steelers, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last five on the highway and 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU win.
The under has been the play in four of Philly?s last five home games, but the over is 20-7-2 in the Eagles? last 29 games versus winning teams and 5-1 in Pittsburgh?s last six contests overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Jacksonville (0-2 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars, off to a rough start after reaching the divisional round of the playoffs last year, head north to the new Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Colts in an AFC South showdown.
For the second straight week, Jacksonville went off as a favorite and lost outright, falling to Buffalo 20-16 as a four-point home chalk. QB David Garrard (17 of 28, 165 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was mediocre for an offense that finished with just 243 total yards, and the Jags gave up 10 points in the last five minutes of the game to blow a 16-10 lead.
Indianapolis rallied from a 15-0 deficit to edge Minnesota 18-15 laying two points on the road. QB Peyton Manning (26 of 42, 311 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) didn?t lead the Colts to any points until a late-third quarter TD, but he guided two more drives in the fourth quarter, with Adam Vinatieri winning it on a 47-yard field goal in the waning seconds. Indy rushed for a meager 25 yards, while allowing 179.
The Colts have won five of the last six in this rivalry, though they are just 2-3-1 ATS in that stretch. Indy took both meetings in 2007, but did not cash at home. In fact, the road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight series clashes.
The Jaguars are on a 9-3-1 ATS streak as a division road ?dog, but otherwise they?re on pointspread skids of 1-4 overall and 1-5 in September. Meanwhile, the Colts are mired in ATS funks of 0-4 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home and 2-8 in division play, though they?re still on pointspread upticks of 14-5-1 in September and 8-3 coming off a SU win.
The over for Jacksonville is on tears of 10-2-2 overall, 7-1-1 as a visitor and 7-2-2 in conference play, but the under is 9-3 in Indy?s last 12 September games and 6-1 in its last seven when coming off a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cleveland (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Baltimore (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Browns, who barely missed the playoffs last year on a tiebreaker, aim to kick-start their 2008 season when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens.
Cleveland lost to Pittsburgh 10-6 as a six-point home underdog in prime time last Sunday night, getting only a pair of second-half field goals. QB Derek Anderson (18 of 32, 166 yards) threw two INTs, and the Browns finished with just 208 total yards.
Baltimore, which had its game last week at Houston postponed by Hurricane Ike, topped Cincinnati 17-10 as a one-point home pup in its season opener. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (15 of 29, 129 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) wasn?t flashy, but he did contribute a 38-yard TD run, and the Ravens finished with 229 rushing yards, while the defense stifled the Bengals, allowing just 154 total yards.
The Browns are on a 5-0 ATS roll in this AFC North rivalry (2-3 SU), winning and cashing in both of last year?s clashes. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
The Browns have cashed in five of their last six division games, and they are on additional ATS streaks of 10-3 overall, 11-1 against winning teams, 7-1 after a SU loss and 7-1 against the AFC. The Ravens are on a 10-6 ATS run in division play at home, but they?re on pointspread slides of 4-11 overall, 3-11 in conference play and 2-5 inside the division.
The under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these rivals in Baltimore. Furthermore, the under for Cleveland is on runs of 8-0 overall and 5-0 against the AFC. On the flip side, the over for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-1 in AFC play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
Dallas (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Green Bay (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys, coming off a thrilling Monday night victory, make the trek to Lambeau Field to face the Packers in the prime-time Sunday night slot.
Dallas held off Philadelphia 41-37 in a scoring bonanza six days ago, but the Cowboys failed to cash as a 6?-point home chalk. QB Tony Romo (21 of 30, 310 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) was solid, though he did lose a fumble that was recovered in the end zone to give Philly a second-quarter TD. Neither team committed much to the run, but the Cowboys passing game was just a tick better than the Eagles?, led by TE Jason Whitten (7 catches, 110 yards) and WR Terrell Owens (3 catches, 89 yards, 2 TDs).
Green Bay squandered all of a 24-9 fourth-quarter lead at Detroit a week ago, then quickly got it all back and more in a 48-25 rout of the Lions as a three-point road favorite. After falling behind 25-24, the Pack picked off Lions QB Jon Kitna on three straight possessions, returning two for TDs. QB Aaron Rodgers was sterling, going 24 of 38 for 328 yards and three TDs and no INTs, and Green Bay finished with a 447-311 total yardage edge.
The Packers and Cowboys have met just twice this decade, with each winning and covering at home. Last November, Dallas claimed a 37-27 home win laying seven points, with Rodgers coming off the bench to replace injured starter Brett Favre. The home team has won 10 straight meetings in this rivalry, going 9-1 ATS, including 7-0 ATS in the last seven. Also, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Cowboys are on a 9-4 ATS streak on the highway and are 6-1 ATS in their last seven in September, but otherwise they?re on pointspread declines of 1-6 overall, 0-6 against the NFC, 0-4 after a non-cover and 1-4 after a SU win. The Packers, meanwhile, are on a 7-1-1 ATS tear at Lambeau and are on further ATS hot streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 7-0 in September, 16-5-2 against the NFC and 12-4 after a SU win.
Monday?s shootout against Philadelphia ended a five-game under run for the Cowboys. The Cowboys now sport over streaks of 13-5-2 on the road, 13-5-1 versus winning teams and 6-2-1 in September. The over is also on a bevy of runs for Green Bay, including 19-7 overall, 6-0 at home, 5-0 in September, 5-0 against winning teams and 13-3 against the NFC. Finally, the last four meetings between these rivals have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Sun, 09/21/08 - 4:05 PMJeff Bonds | NFL Side
double-dime bet411 NOS 6.0 (-110) Bodog vs 412 DEN
Analysis:
Absolutely horrendous situation for the Denver Broncos to walk into:
1. Coming off back-to-back divisional wins against their two biggest rivals and welcome in an NFC opponent that they rarely see and have Kansas City on deck.
2. The emotional victory over the Chargers followed an opening week victory on Monday Night Football. This once again becomes a HUGE LETDOWN spot - especially considering that the San Diego game was a DOUBLE REVENGE spot that they really should have lost.
3. Who's going to play Reggie Bush? If Darren Sproles can become the fantasy darling of Week 2 in the NFL in replacement of Tomlinson - how in the world are they going to account for this guy?
In a game that has pretty even squads on both sides of the ball - I'll take the QB (Brees) that's known for making less mistakes. New Orleans is on a MISSION to prove that 2006 wasn't a fluke after failing to make the playoffs in 2007.
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Yankee Capper
2 Units - Packers +3
2 Units - Vikings -3
Boston Blackie
5 STAR Total of the Week Early
UNDER 41.5 vs Cincinnati vs NYG
The Cincy defensive is better than you think
5 STAR Total of the Week Late
OVER 41.5 Jacksonville vs Indy
Both teams have defensive injuries.
Over is 7-1-1 in JAC last 9 road games.
Over is 10-2-2 in JAC last 14 games overall.
Over is 7-2-2 in JAC last 11 vs. AFC.
Both teams find their offense
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