Larry Ness
20* Total of the Month
The Padres own a four-game losing streak after losing the first two games of their home series with the Giants. They lost 3-2 (10 innings) on Friday and were shutout 2-0 last night. While the Padres dominated the Giants last year going 14-4 (8-1 in Petco), "the shoe has been on the other foot" this year, as the Giants have taken SEVEN of the 10 games played. With last night's loss, San Diego has now dropped four straight home games to the Giants, getting shut out two times and scoring a grand total of just four runs. Frankly, Giants haven't been much better, scoring only nine runs in their four-game winning streak at Petco. Actually, that should come as no surprise as the Padres are hitting just .245 and average only 3.75 RPG, while the Giants are hitting .254, averaging an equally modest 3.89 RPG. Eight of the 10 meetings between these two teams have gone 'under,' including the last four. Going for San Diego is Greg Maddux, who has been a longtime nemesis of the Giants. The future Hall-of-Famer is 29-14 with a 2.81 ERA in 52 career starts against the Giants. He is unbeaten over his last 11 starts against them (6-0 with a 2.33 ERA) and that includes 1-0 mark with a 1.35 ERA in three outings this season (20 IP / 3 ERs). In fact, he hasn't lost to the Giants since May of 2003! So why am I going 'over?' Let's start with Maddux. While he's posted a 1.35 ERA in his three starts vs the Giants this year, TWO of those three games have gone over. Furthermore, most people know that Maddox has struggled through a very tough year in '08. After winning his 350th career game on May 10th, he went 14 starts without a win, posting a 0-5 mark with a 4.54 ERA during that span (team was 6-8). His winless drought ended in his most recent start, when the Padres beat the D'backs 8-5 on July 27. However, Maddux was hardly sharp, allowing nine hits and four ERs in five innings. Yes Maddux owns a 2.84 ERA in 12 home starts this year but look at his current form. He's made seven starts since June 25 (four home and three away), allowing 30 ERs over 37.2 innings for a 7.17 ERA (FIVE of those seven games have gone over!). Now for all of San Francisco's woes in scoring runs this year, the one situation in which the team has hit well, occurs in this game. In 14 daytime road games vs right-handed starters, the Giants are averaging 5.0 RPG. Now let's get to SF's starter, Kevin Correia. He's been around since 2003, not doing much anything. The last two seasons he made 107 appearances but only eight starts. However, 12 of his 13 appearances this year have been as a starter and he enters this game 2-5 with a 5.80 ERA (team is 3-9). He's made six road starts this year, allowing 40 hits and 22 ERs over 31 innings, for a 6.39 ERA. In his last four starts (two home and two away), he's got a 7.71 ERA with all four games going over and those four games averaging 12.3 RPG! Like the Giants, the Padres are also in a rare "good situation" in this game. In 12 home daytime games vs a right-hander, the Padres have averaged 5.2 RPG.
NL Total of the Month
20* SF/SD Over
Daytime Delight
The Mets were in first-place at the completion of play on Tuesday but after losing at Florida on Wednesday plus Friday and Saturday night in Houston, the Mets have fallen to third in the highly-competitve NL East. They are a half-game behind the Marlins and two games back of the Phillies. The Mets bullpen has blown-up in both games in Houston this weekend. First it allowed the Astros to beak open a 3-2 game on Friday night with a five-run 8th. Then last night, Johan Santana saw his bullpen blow a potential win for the FOURTH time this year, letting a 4-1 eighth-inning lead dissolve into a 5-4 Houston win (10 innings). However, I expect the Mets to bounce back here, with Oliver Perez squaring off against Randy Wolf. Perez got his career back on track by going 15-10 with a 3.56 ERA for the Mets last year and while he only takes a 7-6 mark with a 4.02 ERA on the season into today's game, it's his current form that should grab your attention. Perez is just 2-1 over his last six starts but that's FAR from the whole story. He's allowed just six ERs over 39.2 innings during that span, for a 1.36 ERA (he owns MLB's lowest ERA since June 29). More importantly, the Mets have won FIVE of those six starts. His mound opponent will be veteran lefty, Randy Wolf. Wolf has spent most of the '08 season with San Diego but was acquired by the Astros on July 22. I'm still not sure what Houston saw in Wolf's performances this year that made them want to add him to its rotation. Wolf was 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA in 21 starts for the Padres in '08, including a 1-6 mark with a 7.64 ERA over his final seven starts with San Diego. He took a 1-6 mark with a 6.63 ERA in 10 road starts (SD was 1-9) TY into his first start of '08 for Houston last Sunday in Milwaukee. Wolf hardly pitched well (4.1 IP / 7 hits / 4 runs of which 3 were earned) but the Astros won 11-6. He can't expect that kind of support here, as Perez is one of MLB's hottest pitchers plus he'll be facing a New York team which is 21-11 vs lefties in '08, averaging 5.4 RPG in 15 road games (9-6).
Daytime Delight
NY Mets
