- Dec 29, 2013
- 342
- 0
- 0
25-27 +626 YTD
Normally only do picks but gonna write up some reasoning with this one. Feel free to throw in your opinions.
Chiefs/Seahawks - Chiefs are 8-1 ATS, 3-1 at home, with seahaws 1-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs only ATS loss was the first game of the season, so
CHIEFS PK for 2 units
Falcons/Panthers - Falcons are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road while being 3-1 ATS at home. Other than covering vs Tampa, the Margin of losses ATS on the road is -15, -6, -17, -8.5. Safe play for me is
PANTHERS +1 -105
Saints/Bengals - since 2004 Bengals are 2-0 ATS vs Saints, but have not played since 2010. Benglas only covered in 1 of its last 6 games (by 4 points). Saints have been playing close to the line at home, 3-1 ATS when adjusted for a 6 point teaser. No pick here, but Saints in a teaser later
Buccaneers/Redskins - Both teams are 3-6 ATS, but when adjusted for a 6 point tease, bucs are 1-8. skins 7-2. Bucs are 3-1 ATS on the road, and skins only 3-1 ATS at home. Seems like I am playing against myself, but I am taking the redskins in a tease and
Buccaneers +7.5
Broncos/Rams - Denver is 3-1 for the over on the road, St Louis 3-1 for the over at home. STL scored 31 points vs dallas, 17 on SF, and 28 on the Seahawks, which are all defenses allowing less points per game than Denver. Guesing 20 for a safe estimate. Rams D allows 27.4 PPG on average, and I am guessing Denver can go 32 or better, so
Over 51.5 and BRONCOS -10.5
Giants/49ers - No real trends for either team either overall or road/home for this year. Giants are 5-1 ATS vs the 49ers since 04. SF on the road and NY at home are both 4-0 for the over when figuring in a 6 point tease, playing that below
Bears/Vikings - Bears are 8-2 ATS at home playin Minnessota since 04, but 0-3 ATS at home this year. Vikings are 1-4 OU on the road, bears 1-2 OU at home. Gonna give the bears the benefit in this one due to owning the series in Chicago,
BEARS -3 +110
Cardinals/Lions - Arizone is 4-0 ATS at home vs the Lions since 04, 7-2 ATS this year and 4-1 ATS at home this year. Lions are 2-2 ATS on the road.
CARDINALS PK for 2 units
Eagles/Packers - Philly is 6-2 ATS, 2-1 on the road, 6-3 OU but 2-2 on the road. Packers 5-4 ATS and 3-1 at home, but 8-1 OU and 4-0 at home. Over is perfect when adjusted for the tease,
OVER 55
Teaser 1:
Chiefs +7
Saints -.5
Redskins -.5
Broncos over 44.5
Giants over 38
Bears under 53.5
Teaser 2:
Cardinals under 48
Eagles over 49
GL Everyone!
Normally only do picks but gonna write up some reasoning with this one. Feel free to throw in your opinions.
Chiefs/Seahawks - Chiefs are 8-1 ATS, 3-1 at home, with seahaws 1-3 ATS on the road. Chiefs only ATS loss was the first game of the season, so
CHIEFS PK for 2 units
Falcons/Panthers - Falcons are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road while being 3-1 ATS at home. Other than covering vs Tampa, the Margin of losses ATS on the road is -15, -6, -17, -8.5. Safe play for me is
PANTHERS +1 -105
Saints/Bengals - since 2004 Bengals are 2-0 ATS vs Saints, but have not played since 2010. Benglas only covered in 1 of its last 6 games (by 4 points). Saints have been playing close to the line at home, 3-1 ATS when adjusted for a 6 point teaser. No pick here, but Saints in a teaser later
Buccaneers/Redskins - Both teams are 3-6 ATS, but when adjusted for a 6 point tease, bucs are 1-8. skins 7-2. Bucs are 3-1 ATS on the road, and skins only 3-1 ATS at home. Seems like I am playing against myself, but I am taking the redskins in a tease and
Buccaneers +7.5
Broncos/Rams - Denver is 3-1 for the over on the road, St Louis 3-1 for the over at home. STL scored 31 points vs dallas, 17 on SF, and 28 on the Seahawks, which are all defenses allowing less points per game than Denver. Guesing 20 for a safe estimate. Rams D allows 27.4 PPG on average, and I am guessing Denver can go 32 or better, so
Over 51.5 and BRONCOS -10.5
Giants/49ers - No real trends for either team either overall or road/home for this year. Giants are 5-1 ATS vs the 49ers since 04. SF on the road and NY at home are both 4-0 for the over when figuring in a 6 point tease, playing that below
Bears/Vikings - Bears are 8-2 ATS at home playin Minnessota since 04, but 0-3 ATS at home this year. Vikings are 1-4 OU on the road, bears 1-2 OU at home. Gonna give the bears the benefit in this one due to owning the series in Chicago,
BEARS -3 +110
Cardinals/Lions - Arizone is 4-0 ATS at home vs the Lions since 04, 7-2 ATS this year and 4-1 ATS at home this year. Lions are 2-2 ATS on the road.
CARDINALS PK for 2 units
Eagles/Packers - Philly is 6-2 ATS, 2-1 on the road, 6-3 OU but 2-2 on the road. Packers 5-4 ATS and 3-1 at home, but 8-1 OU and 4-0 at home. Over is perfect when adjusted for the tease,
OVER 55
Teaser 1:
Chiefs +7
Saints -.5
Redskins -.5
Broncos over 44.5
Giants over 38
Bears under 53.5
Teaser 2:
Cardinals under 48
Eagles over 49
GL Everyone!
