Super 12/NRL info

[Anders]

Super 12 notes:

Just some stats that may be of interest as we draw near the midway stage of the competition. The media (hell, what would they know

) have been making a big deal of the home teams winning - 28-5 SU - but unless it's a pick'em, who cares. What we want to know is who covers. So here's an abbreviated run-down (could break it down into home/road and chalk/dog covers, but no-one's probaby that keen - as long as you know I'm paying attention).

ATS:

Sharks 5-1; Waratahs 5-1; Brumbies 4-2; Chiefs 3-2; Reds 3-2; Highlanders 3-3; Crusaders 2-3; Stormers 2-3; Bulls 2-3; Hurricanes 2-4; Cats 2-4; Blues 0-5.

Home team cover: 18-15. Home dog: 3-1. Home favourite: 15-14.

Likely odds for this weekend (home team listed first):

Hurricanes +4.5 v Brumbies
Blues -4.5 v Sharks
Highlanders -2.5 (ML) v Waratahs
Stormers -7.5 v Reds
Chiefs pick 'em v Cats
Bulls +6.5 v Crusaders

Any leans then?? You could argue that the Blues were destined to break their duck but the books have already reacted and will make them a home chalk v the 5-1 Sharks. Home dogs? The Canes and the Bulls, both up against superior opposition, but a possibility - particularly the unpredictable Wellington rock stars - of being a ML winner.

Picks later this week.

NRL notes:

The trend toward the dogs has eased since the racing start to the season, but they are still proving value. Home dogs are 9-7 ATS, road dogs 19-14; 28-21 overall.

Teams ATS:

Knights 5-2; Warriors 4-3; Bulldogs 4-3; Broncos 4-3; Tigers 4-3; Sharks 4-3; Raiders 4-3; Eels 3-4; Roosters 3-4; Eagles 3-4; Dragons 3-4; Cowboys 3-4; Panthers 2-5; Storm 2-5.

Tougher than the Super 12 huh? Uh-huh.

Likely odds for this weekend (home team listed first):

Eagles -6.5 v Tigers
Cowboys +8.5 v Eels
Sharks pick 'em v Roosters
Warriors pick 'em v Bulldogs
Raiders +4.5 v Knights
Broncos -14.5 v Storm
Panthers pick 'em v Dragons

Early leans? Dragons, Tigers, Raiders and the Storm, with a new coach this week. But those could change - keep watching.

 

[gloveski]

I like the dragons aswell surely the panthers could not play that well two weeks in a row (mind you i dont follow the nrl that much but still got burnt by the panthers last weekend.)
Keep up the good work.

 

[Anders]

Gloveski - that was my initial thought too when I saw the line; that the bookies had over-reacted to the Panthers' win. After all, this is a side still 2-5 ATS up against a Dragons team which has been red-hot in their last two matches and has Trent Barrett back. Won't commit yet until I do more study but if you're someone who likes taking the early lines this is good value.
Watched the AFL highlights show on Sky TV late last night - gotta do some homework to make sure I know what you boys are talikng about