NRL/SUPER 12 PICKS
Again, can only preview matches I recommend plays on this weekend due to time restraints.
NOTE: I will be away from here onwards until late Monday (US time) and am unlikely to get near a PC during that time. So all plays here are conditional - as always. For example, last week I discovered after the Warriors/Dragons match began that key playmaker Trent Barrett had been ruled out of the Dragons side thru injury as I was busy working all day. As it was, I believe the news didn't come thru til near game-time but it would have affected my play on the game and I would have updated post as such. I guess it's the problem Nolan speaks of when posting lengthy preview pieces at least a day or so before game-time; hopefully we can adjust as best as possible to such occurences.
There are FOUR plays in the NRL this weekend and THREE plays in the Super 12.
NRL
Season to Date: 7-6; Best Bet 1-0
Round 5)
Home teams listed first
Game 2) Northern Eagles v Sydney Roosters, 16:00 CST
Eagles +3.5
Over/Under 40.5pts - O $1.80/U $1.90
Although the Roosters have struggled for consitency so far, I'm still surprised to see them get a small number as a chalk in this one. The Eagles, after an upset away win over the Knights in Rd 1, have been awful in losses to the Warriors and Bulldogs and scraped home against a poor Panthers team in between in an 76-point; no defence try-fest. That's 96 points they've conceded in three games and the Roosters, equal pre-season title faves with the Broncos and Eels, are giving them just one try?? New halfback Brett Kimmorley is star quality but needs a strong forward pack to shine and hasn't got it yet, while there are doubts over the ability of Eagles coach Peter Sharp. The Roosters needed a second-half rev-up to beat the Raiders on Sunday but have no injury problems and have scored 102 pts in their 4 matches. I expect the likes of Roosters forwards Quentin Pongia, Scott Logan and Adrian Morley to try and establish dominance up front early to allow the ball players in Brad Fittler and Bryan Fletcher to ignite the many exciting speedsters in the Roosters backline. The Roosters registered a superb completion rate of 75% v the Raiders (who only missed 16 tackles) while the Eagles' completion rate in their 38-18 loss to the Bulldogs was just 50%. Roosters should roll.
PLAY ROOSTERS -3.5 (BEST BET)
PLAY OVER 40.5 POINTS
Game 4) The Sharks v Nth Qld Cowboys, 18:00 CST
Sharks -11.5
It's stating the obvious that the Sharks will come out angry after last weekend's controversial loss to the Storm. And the Cowboys should provide ideal cannon fodder. After two strong opening efforts, the visitors have resorted to type in the last 2 rds. They were hammered 30-8 at home to the Roosters in rd 3 after having just 44% of the possession and then handed the Panthers their first win and cover of the season last weekend (poor 46% possession and 60% completion figures again) when going down 18-32. Sharks are big and strong up front and have strength and pace to burn out wide in Preston Campbell, Colin Best and Russell Richardson against a Cowboys team which is way down on talent and depth.
PLAY SHARKS -11.5 (but no higher)
Game 7) Canberra Raiders v St George/Illawarra Dragons, 16:30 CST
Raiders -3.5
Could be another game time decision on Craig Barrett in this match, but I will still make this play if Barrett plays. At this stage he is doubtful after turning his injured ankle again at training on Tuesday - if he does play he will not be at full capcity. The Dragons, 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS , were hammered by the Warriors last week 34-6, have huge injury problems in their forward pack while experienced centre Paul McGregor is out again with knee problems. At this stage, the only good news for them is the return from a one-week suspension of captain and prop Craig Smith. The Raiders covered the spread well away to the Roosters on Sunday and have been solid if unspectacular this year. This will be only their 2nd home match and they have a tremendous history at Bruce Stadium. Despite a completion rate of 76% v the Warriors, the Dragons could only score 6 pts (a sign of how influential a fully fit Barrett is) and had just 35% of the ball; making it two weeks in a row where they have had to put up with massive amounts of tackling the opposition. Add in another key factor that the Raiders have an excellent goalkicker in Clinton Schifcofske while the Dragons will rely on second-choice Nathan Blacklock and we'll head for the home team to cover a margin of an unconverted try.
PLAY RAIDERS -3.5
Super 12
Season to Date: 6-1; BEST BET 2-0
Round 4)
Game 1) Chiefs v Auckland Blues, 16:05 CST
Chiefs +10.5.
Ah, my old friends the Blues! 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS - can they go 0-4 for us here? I think so. My original line for this game was Chiefs +6.5, as I see this encounter being tight despite the Chiefs' injury worries, which have inflated the line. The home team do have an awfully long injury list but if you look closely at their starting XV, it's not far short of their first-choice line up and is still a useful combination. They may struggle a little up front but the Blues pack isn't one of the best in the Super 12 despite an improved effort against the Reds. What I like most here are four main factors - the Chiefs are a different side at home; the scoreline in their 40-11 defeat last weekend by the Crusaders was somewhat misleading in its margin; the Blues seem incapable of pulling away from their opponents due to their ill-discipline and error rate; Carlos Spencer and Orene Ai'i shared kicking duties last weekend (a sign of a confidence shortage from Spencer?; Ai'i not a high percentage kicker) while Jackson was still striking the ball nicely v Crusaders and will be relaxed in front of home crowd. We get enough points here, against a favoured team which played only 5 days ago, to...
PLAY CHIEFS +10.5
Game 2) ACT Brumbies v Bulls, 18:05 CST
Brumbies -38.5 (Centrebet $2 line); Bulls +32.5 (C/bet $2 line)
A huge amount of wood to lay, even allowing for the disparity in talent. Sure, the Brumbies hammered the Crusaders 51-16 at home in the opening rd but they had targeted that match for a long time. Now, they return from a gruelling 2-game trip in SA after matches v the Sharks (lost SU and ATS, 16-17) and the Cats (won 19-17) to face a Bull side which is 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS. The Bulls were dismembered 53-7 by the on-fire Waratahs last weekend in an embarrassing showing but I expect highly-rated new coach Phil Pretorius to have read the riot act all week after gutsy showings away to the Sharks and Hurricanes. Stephen Larkham and David Giffin are still out for the Brumbies with injury. The home team will have no problem winning here but the opportunity for a backdoor cover (Bulls have plenty of pace out wide), the Brumbies' "travel legs" and a line inflated by one bad Bulls effort gives us value in the visitors covering.
PLAY BULLS +32.5 ($2 line)
Game 4) Sharks v Hurricanes; 02:40 CST
Sharks -7.5
The Sharks are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after playing all three matches at home. The Hurricanes are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS and in danger already of losing touch with a playoff spot. I believe the 'Canes, who have been close to awful to date, will produce their best effort here as road dogs. They have too much talent in their backline to keep registering low offensive total - 17pts (v Reds), 26 pts (v Bulls) and 15pts (v Stormers) - while the forward pack, regarded by some as suspect, has been the better performed unit to date. They receive some great news too, with massive prop Ollie le Roux and monster lock Mark Andrews both ruled out with injury for the Sharks - both vastly experienced Springboks are the heart of the home team's front eight. Openside flanker Kupu Vanisi has failed to regain his fitness for the 'Canes but his absence will be nicely compensated by hugely promising youngster Rodney So'oialo. It's always tough to win away in the republic but the Brumbies showed it was possible v the Cats last week. The Sharks aren't in the same league as the Cats and while the 'Canes ain't the Brumbies, the Highlanders came within a whisker of beating the Sharks last week - leading 29-16 before going down 30-29 following a missed penalty attempt on fulltime - and the visitors are arguably a potentially more devastating unit than the Otago side. Cooler temperatures are predicted for the night match which should help the dogs too.
PLAY HURRICANES +7.5
GLTA; catch up with u in a few days
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I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by March Madness ...
Again, can only preview matches I recommend plays on this weekend due to time restraints.
NOTE: I will be away from here onwards until late Monday (US time) and am unlikely to get near a PC during that time. So all plays here are conditional - as always. For example, last week I discovered after the Warriors/Dragons match began that key playmaker Trent Barrett had been ruled out of the Dragons side thru injury as I was busy working all day. As it was, I believe the news didn't come thru til near game-time but it would have affected my play on the game and I would have updated post as such. I guess it's the problem Nolan speaks of when posting lengthy preview pieces at least a day or so before game-time; hopefully we can adjust as best as possible to such occurences.
There are FOUR plays in the NRL this weekend and THREE plays in the Super 12.
NRL
Season to Date: 7-6; Best Bet 1-0
Round 5)
Home teams listed first
Game 2) Northern Eagles v Sydney Roosters, 16:00 CST
Eagles +3.5
Over/Under 40.5pts - O $1.80/U $1.90
Although the Roosters have struggled for consitency so far, I'm still surprised to see them get a small number as a chalk in this one. The Eagles, after an upset away win over the Knights in Rd 1, have been awful in losses to the Warriors and Bulldogs and scraped home against a poor Panthers team in between in an 76-point; no defence try-fest. That's 96 points they've conceded in three games and the Roosters, equal pre-season title faves with the Broncos and Eels, are giving them just one try?? New halfback Brett Kimmorley is star quality but needs a strong forward pack to shine and hasn't got it yet, while there are doubts over the ability of Eagles coach Peter Sharp. The Roosters needed a second-half rev-up to beat the Raiders on Sunday but have no injury problems and have scored 102 pts in their 4 matches. I expect the likes of Roosters forwards Quentin Pongia, Scott Logan and Adrian Morley to try and establish dominance up front early to allow the ball players in Brad Fittler and Bryan Fletcher to ignite the many exciting speedsters in the Roosters backline. The Roosters registered a superb completion rate of 75% v the Raiders (who only missed 16 tackles) while the Eagles' completion rate in their 38-18 loss to the Bulldogs was just 50%. Roosters should roll.
PLAY ROOSTERS -3.5 (BEST BET)
PLAY OVER 40.5 POINTS
Game 4) The Sharks v Nth Qld Cowboys, 18:00 CST
Sharks -11.5
It's stating the obvious that the Sharks will come out angry after last weekend's controversial loss to the Storm. And the Cowboys should provide ideal cannon fodder. After two strong opening efforts, the visitors have resorted to type in the last 2 rds. They were hammered 30-8 at home to the Roosters in rd 3 after having just 44% of the possession and then handed the Panthers their first win and cover of the season last weekend (poor 46% possession and 60% completion figures again) when going down 18-32. Sharks are big and strong up front and have strength and pace to burn out wide in Preston Campbell, Colin Best and Russell Richardson against a Cowboys team which is way down on talent and depth.
PLAY SHARKS -11.5 (but no higher)
Game 7) Canberra Raiders v St George/Illawarra Dragons, 16:30 CST
Raiders -3.5
Could be another game time decision on Craig Barrett in this match, but I will still make this play if Barrett plays. At this stage he is doubtful after turning his injured ankle again at training on Tuesday - if he does play he will not be at full capcity. The Dragons, 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS , were hammered by the Warriors last week 34-6, have huge injury problems in their forward pack while experienced centre Paul McGregor is out again with knee problems. At this stage, the only good news for them is the return from a one-week suspension of captain and prop Craig Smith. The Raiders covered the spread well away to the Roosters on Sunday and have been solid if unspectacular this year. This will be only their 2nd home match and they have a tremendous history at Bruce Stadium. Despite a completion rate of 76% v the Warriors, the Dragons could only score 6 pts (a sign of how influential a fully fit Barrett is) and had just 35% of the ball; making it two weeks in a row where they have had to put up with massive amounts of tackling the opposition. Add in another key factor that the Raiders have an excellent goalkicker in Clinton Schifcofske while the Dragons will rely on second-choice Nathan Blacklock and we'll head for the home team to cover a margin of an unconverted try.
PLAY RAIDERS -3.5
Super 12
Season to Date: 6-1; BEST BET 2-0
Round 4)
Game 1) Chiefs v Auckland Blues, 16:05 CST
Chiefs +10.5.
Ah, my old friends the Blues! 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS - can they go 0-4 for us here? I think so. My original line for this game was Chiefs +6.5, as I see this encounter being tight despite the Chiefs' injury worries, which have inflated the line. The home team do have an awfully long injury list but if you look closely at their starting XV, it's not far short of their first-choice line up and is still a useful combination. They may struggle a little up front but the Blues pack isn't one of the best in the Super 12 despite an improved effort against the Reds. What I like most here are four main factors - the Chiefs are a different side at home; the scoreline in their 40-11 defeat last weekend by the Crusaders was somewhat misleading in its margin; the Blues seem incapable of pulling away from their opponents due to their ill-discipline and error rate; Carlos Spencer and Orene Ai'i shared kicking duties last weekend (a sign of a confidence shortage from Spencer?; Ai'i not a high percentage kicker) while Jackson was still striking the ball nicely v Crusaders and will be relaxed in front of home crowd. We get enough points here, against a favoured team which played only 5 days ago, to...
PLAY CHIEFS +10.5
Game 2) ACT Brumbies v Bulls, 18:05 CST
Brumbies -38.5 (Centrebet $2 line); Bulls +32.5 (C/bet $2 line)
A huge amount of wood to lay, even allowing for the disparity in talent. Sure, the Brumbies hammered the Crusaders 51-16 at home in the opening rd but they had targeted that match for a long time. Now, they return from a gruelling 2-game trip in SA after matches v the Sharks (lost SU and ATS, 16-17) and the Cats (won 19-17) to face a Bull side which is 0-3 SU but 2-1 ATS. The Bulls were dismembered 53-7 by the on-fire Waratahs last weekend in an embarrassing showing but I expect highly-rated new coach Phil Pretorius to have read the riot act all week after gutsy showings away to the Sharks and Hurricanes. Stephen Larkham and David Giffin are still out for the Brumbies with injury. The home team will have no problem winning here but the opportunity for a backdoor cover (Bulls have plenty of pace out wide), the Brumbies' "travel legs" and a line inflated by one bad Bulls effort gives us value in the visitors covering.
PLAY BULLS +32.5 ($2 line)
Game 4) Sharks v Hurricanes; 02:40 CST
Sharks -7.5
The Sharks are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS after playing all three matches at home. The Hurricanes are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS and in danger already of losing touch with a playoff spot. I believe the 'Canes, who have been close to awful to date, will produce their best effort here as road dogs. They have too much talent in their backline to keep registering low offensive total - 17pts (v Reds), 26 pts (v Bulls) and 15pts (v Stormers) - while the forward pack, regarded by some as suspect, has been the better performed unit to date. They receive some great news too, with massive prop Ollie le Roux and monster lock Mark Andrews both ruled out with injury for the Sharks - both vastly experienced Springboks are the heart of the home team's front eight. Openside flanker Kupu Vanisi has failed to regain his fitness for the 'Canes but his absence will be nicely compensated by hugely promising youngster Rodney So'oialo. It's always tough to win away in the republic but the Brumbies showed it was possible v the Cats last week. The Sharks aren't in the same league as the Cats and while the 'Canes ain't the Brumbies, the Highlanders came within a whisker of beating the Sharks last week - leading 29-16 before going down 30-29 following a missed penalty attempt on fulltime - and the visitors are arguably a potentially more devastating unit than the Otago side. Cooler temperatures are predicted for the night match which should help the dogs too.
PLAY HURRICANES +7.5
GLTA; catch up with u in a few days
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I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by March Madness ...
