Game 4) Queensland Reds v Wellington Hurricanes, Ballymore, Brisbane, 19:35 CST.
Reds -3.5 ($1.90Aus); Hurricanes +3.5 ($1.90).
Another tough one to 'cap, even though the line is right where I expected it to be. The Hurricanes are based almost exclusively around the Wellington team which peaked at the perfect time late last year to win the NZ National Provincial Championship (NPC) crown. But they have failed to fire pre-season; being beaten by the Chiefs and thumped by the Highlanders as they struggled with injuries and All Blacks coming back late off limited breaks. While many tip the 'Canes for a semifinal berth, few critics rate the chances of the Reds, despite the presence of inspirational Wallabies skipper John Eales. They will greatly miss the hugely experienced duo of Tim Horan and David Wilson and are under a new coaching reign of former Wallabies hooker Mark McBain. The Reds were slow starters last year and will be keen to rectify that problem, while the 'Canes could prove to be the most unpredictable side of the competition. They don't have a big pack but it is very mobile, with a superb set of loose forwards in Filo Tiatia, Jerry Collins and Rodney So'oalio who could be matchwinners if they adjust to the law interpretations (see Vanisi's thoughts in an earlier post. Just going to sit and watch how this develops.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 5) NSW Waratahs v Chiefs, Stadium Australia, Sydney, 17:35 CST.
Waratahs -6.5 ($1.90Aus); Chiefs +6.5 ($1.90).
The two form teams from pre-season. The Waratahs, under new coach and former Wallabies supremo Bob Dwyer, beat the Crusaders twice and the Blues also despite fielding a relatively inexperienced combination. The Chiefs also have a new coach, former Waikato captain and England assistant coach John Mitchell and beat the 'Canes and the Highlanders pre-season while running the Brumbies close in Canberra. Both sides will be fielding a number of Super 12 rookies. It's almost an identikit match-up, with the two mentors both likely to get huge efforts out of their young charges. Mitchell in particular has got the Chiefs fitter and better organised than in any previous season and look for excellent defensive screens from the visitors. I was hoping to get nearer to 9-10 points start and play the Chiefs, but it appears the books are wary too. These games between these 2 rivals are always close fought and the concern over the Chiefs front row - likely first choice props Hazelton and Briggs are out injured and replaced by Super 12 debutants Manu and Knight - who are up against a young tyro in Matt Dunning and the capable Rod Moore means less than a converted try margin sees me sitting on the sidelines.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 7) Stormers v Cats, Cape Town, 11:35 CST.
Stormers -5.5 ($1.90Aus); Cats +5.5 ($1.90).
Another all South-African match-up sees last year's most improved side, the Cats, travel to face a Stormers team with an all-star backline. Laurie Mains produced a tremendous forward pack last season with the Cats but their inability among their backs to turn possession into points cost them dearly. There should be no such problems for the Stormers backline, containing Springboks Percy Montgomery, Breyton Paulse, Robbie Fleck, De Wet Barry, Pieter Rossouw and Braam van Straaten. Fortunately for us, rugby matches aren't often won by a scintillating backline. It helps, but it's not always the key. The home team have problems up front after prop Cobus Visagie was banned for 2 years on a doping charge and flanker Hendrik Gerber was ruled out with a neck injury. To add to that,former Bok lock Selborne Broome is now playing in France and prop Toks van der Linde is also out injured. No such problems for the Cats, who have enough power up front to loan bench prop Lawrence Sephaka to the Stormers, although he will not play in this match. The Stormers looked last season like a team that has reached its peak and may be starting to slide downhill, while I believe the Cats and Mains are primed for another strong push for the playoffs. Even though they're on the road, take the Cats to cover.
INITIAL DECISION: CATS +5.5.
Reds -3.5 ($1.90Aus); Hurricanes +3.5 ($1.90).
Another tough one to 'cap, even though the line is right where I expected it to be. The Hurricanes are based almost exclusively around the Wellington team which peaked at the perfect time late last year to win the NZ National Provincial Championship (NPC) crown. But they have failed to fire pre-season; being beaten by the Chiefs and thumped by the Highlanders as they struggled with injuries and All Blacks coming back late off limited breaks. While many tip the 'Canes for a semifinal berth, few critics rate the chances of the Reds, despite the presence of inspirational Wallabies skipper John Eales. They will greatly miss the hugely experienced duo of Tim Horan and David Wilson and are under a new coaching reign of former Wallabies hooker Mark McBain. The Reds were slow starters last year and will be keen to rectify that problem, while the 'Canes could prove to be the most unpredictable side of the competition. They don't have a big pack but it is very mobile, with a superb set of loose forwards in Filo Tiatia, Jerry Collins and Rodney So'oalio who could be matchwinners if they adjust to the law interpretations (see Vanisi's thoughts in an earlier post. Just going to sit and watch how this develops.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 5) NSW Waratahs v Chiefs, Stadium Australia, Sydney, 17:35 CST.
Waratahs -6.5 ($1.90Aus); Chiefs +6.5 ($1.90).
The two form teams from pre-season. The Waratahs, under new coach and former Wallabies supremo Bob Dwyer, beat the Crusaders twice and the Blues also despite fielding a relatively inexperienced combination. The Chiefs also have a new coach, former Waikato captain and England assistant coach John Mitchell and beat the 'Canes and the Highlanders pre-season while running the Brumbies close in Canberra. Both sides will be fielding a number of Super 12 rookies. It's almost an identikit match-up, with the two mentors both likely to get huge efforts out of their young charges. Mitchell in particular has got the Chiefs fitter and better organised than in any previous season and look for excellent defensive screens from the visitors. I was hoping to get nearer to 9-10 points start and play the Chiefs, but it appears the books are wary too. These games between these 2 rivals are always close fought and the concern over the Chiefs front row - likely first choice props Hazelton and Briggs are out injured and replaced by Super 12 debutants Manu and Knight - who are up against a young tyro in Matt Dunning and the capable Rod Moore means less than a converted try margin sees me sitting on the sidelines.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 7) Stormers v Cats, Cape Town, 11:35 CST.
Stormers -5.5 ($1.90Aus); Cats +5.5 ($1.90).
Another all South-African match-up sees last year's most improved side, the Cats, travel to face a Stormers team with an all-star backline. Laurie Mains produced a tremendous forward pack last season with the Cats but their inability among their backs to turn possession into points cost them dearly. There should be no such problems for the Stormers backline, containing Springboks Percy Montgomery, Breyton Paulse, Robbie Fleck, De Wet Barry, Pieter Rossouw and Braam van Straaten. Fortunately for us, rugby matches aren't often won by a scintillating backline. It helps, but it's not always the key. The home team have problems up front after prop Cobus Visagie was banned for 2 years on a doping charge and flanker Hendrik Gerber was ruled out with a neck injury. To add to that,former Bok lock Selborne Broome is now playing in France and prop Toks van der Linde is also out injured. No such problems for the Cats, who have enough power up front to loan bench prop Lawrence Sephaka to the Stormers, although he will not play in this match. The Stormers looked last season like a team that has reached its peak and may be starting to slide downhill, while I believe the Cats and Mains are primed for another strong push for the playoffs. Even though they're on the road, take the Cats to cover.
INITIAL DECISION: CATS +5.5.
