Super 12, Rd One (Friday night Down Under) matches:
Game 1) ACT Brumbies v Canterbury Crusaders, Bruce Stadium, Canberra, 18:05 CST.
Brumbies -8.5 ($1.80 Aus); Crusaders +8.5 ($1.95).
A cracker start to the 2001 Super 12 season - a repeat of last year's gripping final won by the Crusaders totally against the run of play. It's no exageration to say that the Brumbies have been waiting almost a year for the rematch. I expected the opening line to be around -4.5 but the news that the Crusaders would start without lynchpin first-five Andrew Mehtens has seen it blow out to -8.5. That's something I find a little strange, considering the Brumbies have yet to name their starting 15 and their star No10 Stephen Larkham may also be out. So instead of liking the home team with less than an unconverted try to cover, I went to whether I could wager on the underdogs covering possibly two scores (converted try). I couldn't find the ammunition to do so, despite the fact they're three-times defending champions and are renown for their defence. Aaron Mauger will do an adequate job as Mehrtens' replacement, but if Larkham doesn't start - hold on a sec... have just checked the latest info and Larkham is out, along with forward David Griffin. As I was saying, Aussie test player Rod Kafer is more likely to slip into Larkham's role with the Brumbies better than Mauger will with the visitors. The Brumbies have won all three pre-season matches; the Crusaders have lost to Queensland and NSW, neither of whom is expected to feature in the playoffs. Still, they're not champions for nothing. Expect a titanic battle with the Brumbies winning but this line looks about right.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 2) Otago Highlanders v Auckland Blues, Carisbrook, Dunedin, 16:05 CST.
Highlanders -2.5 ($1.90); Blues +2.5 ($1.90).
Less of a cover than I expected for the home team, and so we have value betting the Highlanders. Here's why. I believe the line was set at -2.5 for two particular reasons; the strongest being the memory of the bookmakers who saw Auckland obliterate Otago in the final round of the NPC last NZ winter. The other is the 18-10 loss the Highlanders suffered to the Chiefs in last Friday's pre-season encounter in Tauranga. But a closer look reveals some interesting details. The Otago side which was thumped in the NPC doesn't bear a great resemblance to Friday night's team. The inspirational Jeff Wilson is back from his brief retirement and Carisbrook will be buzzing to see their idol in action again. And the Otago front row is back to full strength, with the three All Blacks in props Kees Meeuws and Carl Hoeft and hooker Anton Oliver. I expect them to dominate the Auckland front three, which is definitely the Blues' weak link. Former All Black Craig Dowd isn't the force he was and has again been forced to shift to his less-favoured tighthead prop position. Paul Thompson on the other side has been exposed against stronger props, while hooker Keven Mealamu is hugely exciting in open play but no match for Oliver in the tight. The Highlanders have also beefed up their back row by omitting openside flier Josh Blackie and playing Taine Randell at No7 and Kelvin Middleton on the blindside flank, although this leaves them exposed to being second to the loose ball behind Auckland's extremely mobile No7 Matua Parkinson. I'm thinking this could well be negated by the amount of penalties likely to be blown at ruck and maul situations as referees and players struggle initially with the reworkings and interpretations of the rules in these situations. Look for first-five Tony Brown to pin the visitors back with deep kicks, testing dangerously unpredictable winger Joeli Vidiri and fullback Orene Ai'i. Really like the home team getting less than a penalty to cover; this is my BEST BET of the opening round.
INITIAL DECISION: PLAY OTAGO HIGHLANDERS @ -2.5.
Note: I have just checked the NZTAB odds and while they haven't listed a points start, they have Otago $1.95 head-to-head and Auckland $1.80. Obviously they have taken some money on the Blues, but I'm happy to take the ML on the Highlanders at those odds.
Game 3) Sharks v Bulls, Kings Park, Durban, 11:40 CST.
Sharks -9.5 ($1.90); Bulls +9.5 ($1.90).
This one won't take long. I've really struggled to find much information on either side. Neither team are expected to make the playoffs after poor 2000 seasons. The Sharks scored a useful 26-19 pre-season win over the Cats while the Bulls are extensively rebuilding under a new coach with many young players. Sharks should be hard to roll at home; Bulls may shock first up. Who knows? We'll watch and see.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Note: Odds are taken from Centrebet (Aus). Apologies to those in the US who can't bet there; I have listed in a previous post other outlets who do offer odds which I believe are on very similar lines.
GLTA
Game 1) ACT Brumbies v Canterbury Crusaders, Bruce Stadium, Canberra, 18:05 CST.
Brumbies -8.5 ($1.80 Aus); Crusaders +8.5 ($1.95).
A cracker start to the 2001 Super 12 season - a repeat of last year's gripping final won by the Crusaders totally against the run of play. It's no exageration to say that the Brumbies have been waiting almost a year for the rematch. I expected the opening line to be around -4.5 but the news that the Crusaders would start without lynchpin first-five Andrew Mehtens has seen it blow out to -8.5. That's something I find a little strange, considering the Brumbies have yet to name their starting 15 and their star No10 Stephen Larkham may also be out. So instead of liking the home team with less than an unconverted try to cover, I went to whether I could wager on the underdogs covering possibly two scores (converted try). I couldn't find the ammunition to do so, despite the fact they're three-times defending champions and are renown for their defence. Aaron Mauger will do an adequate job as Mehrtens' replacement, but if Larkham doesn't start - hold on a sec... have just checked the latest info and Larkham is out, along with forward David Griffin. As I was saying, Aussie test player Rod Kafer is more likely to slip into Larkham's role with the Brumbies better than Mauger will with the visitors. The Brumbies have won all three pre-season matches; the Crusaders have lost to Queensland and NSW, neither of whom is expected to feature in the playoffs. Still, they're not champions for nothing. Expect a titanic battle with the Brumbies winning but this line looks about right.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Game 2) Otago Highlanders v Auckland Blues, Carisbrook, Dunedin, 16:05 CST.
Highlanders -2.5 ($1.90); Blues +2.5 ($1.90).
Less of a cover than I expected for the home team, and so we have value betting the Highlanders. Here's why. I believe the line was set at -2.5 for two particular reasons; the strongest being the memory of the bookmakers who saw Auckland obliterate Otago in the final round of the NPC last NZ winter. The other is the 18-10 loss the Highlanders suffered to the Chiefs in last Friday's pre-season encounter in Tauranga. But a closer look reveals some interesting details. The Otago side which was thumped in the NPC doesn't bear a great resemblance to Friday night's team. The inspirational Jeff Wilson is back from his brief retirement and Carisbrook will be buzzing to see their idol in action again. And the Otago front row is back to full strength, with the three All Blacks in props Kees Meeuws and Carl Hoeft and hooker Anton Oliver. I expect them to dominate the Auckland front three, which is definitely the Blues' weak link. Former All Black Craig Dowd isn't the force he was and has again been forced to shift to his less-favoured tighthead prop position. Paul Thompson on the other side has been exposed against stronger props, while hooker Keven Mealamu is hugely exciting in open play but no match for Oliver in the tight. The Highlanders have also beefed up their back row by omitting openside flier Josh Blackie and playing Taine Randell at No7 and Kelvin Middleton on the blindside flank, although this leaves them exposed to being second to the loose ball behind Auckland's extremely mobile No7 Matua Parkinson. I'm thinking this could well be negated by the amount of penalties likely to be blown at ruck and maul situations as referees and players struggle initially with the reworkings and interpretations of the rules in these situations. Look for first-five Tony Brown to pin the visitors back with deep kicks, testing dangerously unpredictable winger Joeli Vidiri and fullback Orene Ai'i. Really like the home team getting less than a penalty to cover; this is my BEST BET of the opening round.
INITIAL DECISION: PLAY OTAGO HIGHLANDERS @ -2.5.
Note: I have just checked the NZTAB odds and while they haven't listed a points start, they have Otago $1.95 head-to-head and Auckland $1.80. Obviously they have taken some money on the Blues, but I'm happy to take the ML on the Highlanders at those odds.
Game 3) Sharks v Bulls, Kings Park, Durban, 11:40 CST.
Sharks -9.5 ($1.90); Bulls +9.5 ($1.90).
This one won't take long. I've really struggled to find much information on either side. Neither team are expected to make the playoffs after poor 2000 seasons. The Sharks scored a useful 26-19 pre-season win over the Cats while the Bulls are extensively rebuilding under a new coach with many young players. Sharks should be hard to roll at home; Bulls may shock first up. Who knows? We'll watch and see.
INITIAL DECISION: NO PLAY.
Note: Odds are taken from Centrebet (Aus). Apologies to those in the US who can't bet there; I have listed in a previous post other outlets who do offer odds which I believe are on very similar lines.
GLTA
