Season to date: 23-10 (69.70%).
This weekend, with a full round of six matches - which all may have significant impact on the semifinal places - I see three likely wagers at this stage. Without further ado, I'll look at Friday night's matches.
Game 1) Auckland Blues v Wellington Hurricanes, Eden Pk.
Blues +4.5
The Hurricanes have never beaten the Blues in the history of the Super 12. That should change in this encounter. The Hurricanes enter the match with a slim chance of making the top four playoffs but will rely on other results going in their favour. However, a win with the bonus point from four or more tries would put some pressure on other chasing teams in matches to follow and there is no doubt the visitors have plenty to play for. The Blues, alternatively, are long out of the playoff picture. Their horror season couldn't have been better magnified by their last two outings - an away loss to the Bulls to hand the wooden-spooners their only win of the season and a thumping at home by the Brumbies were they Blues, especially in the first half, reached a forgettable nadir in their performance level. They have made a host of player and positional changes for their final match. Prop Tevita Taumoepeau and hooker Slade McFarland should add some solidity to a front row embarassed by the Brumbies while Glenn Taylor returns at lock. The loose trio faces a big reshuffle with openside flanker Craig Newby out. Troy Flavell switches from lock to the blindside, Xavier Rush from No6 to No7. On the wing, Mils Muliaina returns after eight weeks out with a broken hand. In the 'Canes side, superstar backs Jonah Lomu and Tana Umaga have been declared fit. Lomu has been battling a foot injury while Umaga was concussed in rd 10 v the Waratahs. Inoke Afeaki comes in at lock for Paul Tito while Tony Penn has been bracketed at prop with Kevin Yates. The Canes were probably guilty of taking the Chiefs lightly in their shock 27-51 loss at home last weekend and should be sufficiently chastened to rediscover their drive and form with a sniff at the playoffs still in their nostrils. The intangible is the Blues' motivation. Critics say they will be playing for pride but that spur hasn't done anything for them in recent weeks bar a surprise away win v the Stormers. The line here surprised me when released - I make a book at the start of each week before the lines are released and had the Blues at +9.5. So immediately I felt we had value here on the Hurricanes. Why is the line shorter than expected. Partly on the history, the fact the Blues are at home, and the thought that they may show some spirit in what is surely the last match for the coaching duo of Frank Oliver and John Kirwan. But the Blues have covered at home jus once this season - in a loss to the Cats at Whangarei - while the Canes have far greater motivating reasons to perform. In a match highly likely to feature plenty of free-running attack, the visitors hold all the big weapons in Christian Cullen, Lomu and Umaga, have a more reliable first-five and goalkicker in James Howell over the talented but raw James Arlidge (who looks like he is beginning to feel the demands of the Super 12) and a much more mobile loose forward trio. At less than an unconverted try, the value is with the visitors.
PLAY HURRICANES -4.5
Game 2) ACT Brumbies v The Chiefs, Bruce Stadium.
Brumbies -8.5
A fantastic clash expected here. The Brumbies want to win and win well to secure a home semifinal (and ultimately home final) berth while the Chiefs would dearly love an upset win to make the playoffs. Even a close defeat and a bonus point from four tries may be enough for the Chiefs if other results go their way. Both teams are in fine form - see last week's results in the previous preview. Yet the Brumbies suffered a major blow today when Stephen Larkham was ruled out with a recurrence of the hamstring injury that kept him out of the early matches. Lock Justin Harrison was cleared to play after an appeal against a one-match suspension found in his favour but a groin muscle strain puts him in doubt, with David Pusey ready to step in. Both leading try scorers Andrew Walker and Owen Finnegan are also doubtful with a hamstring and neck/shoulder injury respectively. For the Chiefs, big blindside flanker Jonno Gibbes is out with a rib injury and has been replaced by Chresten Davis in the only change from the starting fifteen v the 'Canes. Larkham's absence means Rod "Tugboat" Kafer steps into the No10 jersey for the Brumbies, and while he's not the mercurial figure Larkham is, he does know the Brumbies intricate system inside out and can combine well with scrumhalf George Gregan to ensure their rhythm - so crucial to their success built on continuous phase after phase pressure and switches of direction - isn't disrupted too much. While the Chiefs have been scoring a lot of tries lately, the key for them will be defence. Coach John Mitchell is a huge disciple of organised defence winning matches and will no doubt have spent a lot of time watching the Brumbies to try and break down their patterns. Mitchell probably watches more tape than the rest of the Super 12 coaches combined and no doubt has studied how the Canes and Highlanders managed to quell the Brumbies. This match could be very tight and I have a slight lean to the Chiefs covering, albeit not winning straight up (the Brumbies are 4-0 SU at home but failed to cover the spread once when laying huge wood v the Bulls). But the desire for four tries also opens up the possibility of a late turnover/intercept type try to the home team if the Chiefs are throwing the ball around desperately, allowing the Brumbies to cover. I think the line here is spot on, so..
NO PLAY
Game 3) Cats v Bulls, Johannesburg
Cats -18.5
Not playing this game either, which the Cats should win easily. They will be aiming for four tries and a home win to clinch a semifinal spot and are also hoping to be at home for the playoffs. And while the Bulls have only won once, they have been reasonable value against the spread and it was only a number of crucial turnovers against the Stormers last weekend that cost them from a possible second win. I rate coach Phil Pretorius highly and he has done a fine job with limited talent. Given the Cats relative poor firepower compared to the other top sides - just 266 points for compared to 299 Brumbies, 299 Sharks, 286 Crusaders, 286 Waratahs, 274 Hurricanes - and the strange decision to play van Rensburg at first-five instead of prolific goalkicker Louis Koen from coach Laurie Mains and this game becomes a pass for me.
NO PLAY
Note: All plays are for one unit.
Prop bet: If you have a NZ TAb account, you may be interested in this exotic - Top Try Scorer for the Super 12 competition. Top scorer Aisea Tuilevu from the Highlanders (8 tries) is at $2.50, Andrew Walker from the Brumbies (7) is at $$2.50, Chris Latham of the Reds (7) at $3.50, Breyton Paulse (6, Stormers) at $8.00 as is Deon Kayser (6, Sharks) with Wylie Human (Cats, 5) at $7.00 the only other single-figure option. I would recommend a small wager on Kayser. The Sharks are guaranteed a playoff spot and I believe they can beat the Stormers this weekend to set up a home semi. This should give Kayser a very good shot at getting another three matches; something Tuilevu, Paulse and maybe Latham do not have. He is the Sharks chief attacking weapon and with Walker struggling with a hamstring tinge, VALUE. However, this prop bet would only be worth it if you are playing your one unit plays for $20 or more. If you are a $100 punter, I would use a fifth of your one unit spend on this prop.
Hope you all have a successful Friday night whatever you play. Be back tomorrow with the other three matches.
GLTA
This weekend, with a full round of six matches - which all may have significant impact on the semifinal places - I see three likely wagers at this stage. Without further ado, I'll look at Friday night's matches.
Game 1) Auckland Blues v Wellington Hurricanes, Eden Pk.
Blues +4.5
The Hurricanes have never beaten the Blues in the history of the Super 12. That should change in this encounter. The Hurricanes enter the match with a slim chance of making the top four playoffs but will rely on other results going in their favour. However, a win with the bonus point from four or more tries would put some pressure on other chasing teams in matches to follow and there is no doubt the visitors have plenty to play for. The Blues, alternatively, are long out of the playoff picture. Their horror season couldn't have been better magnified by their last two outings - an away loss to the Bulls to hand the wooden-spooners their only win of the season and a thumping at home by the Brumbies were they Blues, especially in the first half, reached a forgettable nadir in their performance level. They have made a host of player and positional changes for their final match. Prop Tevita Taumoepeau and hooker Slade McFarland should add some solidity to a front row embarassed by the Brumbies while Glenn Taylor returns at lock. The loose trio faces a big reshuffle with openside flanker Craig Newby out. Troy Flavell switches from lock to the blindside, Xavier Rush from No6 to No7. On the wing, Mils Muliaina returns after eight weeks out with a broken hand. In the 'Canes side, superstar backs Jonah Lomu and Tana Umaga have been declared fit. Lomu has been battling a foot injury while Umaga was concussed in rd 10 v the Waratahs. Inoke Afeaki comes in at lock for Paul Tito while Tony Penn has been bracketed at prop with Kevin Yates. The Canes were probably guilty of taking the Chiefs lightly in their shock 27-51 loss at home last weekend and should be sufficiently chastened to rediscover their drive and form with a sniff at the playoffs still in their nostrils. The intangible is the Blues' motivation. Critics say they will be playing for pride but that spur hasn't done anything for them in recent weeks bar a surprise away win v the Stormers. The line here surprised me when released - I make a book at the start of each week before the lines are released and had the Blues at +9.5. So immediately I felt we had value here on the Hurricanes. Why is the line shorter than expected. Partly on the history, the fact the Blues are at home, and the thought that they may show some spirit in what is surely the last match for the coaching duo of Frank Oliver and John Kirwan. But the Blues have covered at home jus once this season - in a loss to the Cats at Whangarei - while the Canes have far greater motivating reasons to perform. In a match highly likely to feature plenty of free-running attack, the visitors hold all the big weapons in Christian Cullen, Lomu and Umaga, have a more reliable first-five and goalkicker in James Howell over the talented but raw James Arlidge (who looks like he is beginning to feel the demands of the Super 12) and a much more mobile loose forward trio. At less than an unconverted try, the value is with the visitors.
PLAY HURRICANES -4.5
Game 2) ACT Brumbies v The Chiefs, Bruce Stadium.
Brumbies -8.5
A fantastic clash expected here. The Brumbies want to win and win well to secure a home semifinal (and ultimately home final) berth while the Chiefs would dearly love an upset win to make the playoffs. Even a close defeat and a bonus point from four tries may be enough for the Chiefs if other results go their way. Both teams are in fine form - see last week's results in the previous preview. Yet the Brumbies suffered a major blow today when Stephen Larkham was ruled out with a recurrence of the hamstring injury that kept him out of the early matches. Lock Justin Harrison was cleared to play after an appeal against a one-match suspension found in his favour but a groin muscle strain puts him in doubt, with David Pusey ready to step in. Both leading try scorers Andrew Walker and Owen Finnegan are also doubtful with a hamstring and neck/shoulder injury respectively. For the Chiefs, big blindside flanker Jonno Gibbes is out with a rib injury and has been replaced by Chresten Davis in the only change from the starting fifteen v the 'Canes. Larkham's absence means Rod "Tugboat" Kafer steps into the No10 jersey for the Brumbies, and while he's not the mercurial figure Larkham is, he does know the Brumbies intricate system inside out and can combine well with scrumhalf George Gregan to ensure their rhythm - so crucial to their success built on continuous phase after phase pressure and switches of direction - isn't disrupted too much. While the Chiefs have been scoring a lot of tries lately, the key for them will be defence. Coach John Mitchell is a huge disciple of organised defence winning matches and will no doubt have spent a lot of time watching the Brumbies to try and break down their patterns. Mitchell probably watches more tape than the rest of the Super 12 coaches combined and no doubt has studied how the Canes and Highlanders managed to quell the Brumbies. This match could be very tight and I have a slight lean to the Chiefs covering, albeit not winning straight up (the Brumbies are 4-0 SU at home but failed to cover the spread once when laying huge wood v the Bulls). But the desire for four tries also opens up the possibility of a late turnover/intercept type try to the home team if the Chiefs are throwing the ball around desperately, allowing the Brumbies to cover. I think the line here is spot on, so..
NO PLAY
Game 3) Cats v Bulls, Johannesburg
Cats -18.5
Not playing this game either, which the Cats should win easily. They will be aiming for four tries and a home win to clinch a semifinal spot and are also hoping to be at home for the playoffs. And while the Bulls have only won once, they have been reasonable value against the spread and it was only a number of crucial turnovers against the Stormers last weekend that cost them from a possible second win. I rate coach Phil Pretorius highly and he has done a fine job with limited talent. Given the Cats relative poor firepower compared to the other top sides - just 266 points for compared to 299 Brumbies, 299 Sharks, 286 Crusaders, 286 Waratahs, 274 Hurricanes - and the strange decision to play van Rensburg at first-five instead of prolific goalkicker Louis Koen from coach Laurie Mains and this game becomes a pass for me.
NO PLAY
Note: All plays are for one unit.
Prop bet: If you have a NZ TAb account, you may be interested in this exotic - Top Try Scorer for the Super 12 competition. Top scorer Aisea Tuilevu from the Highlanders (8 tries) is at $2.50, Andrew Walker from the Brumbies (7) is at $$2.50, Chris Latham of the Reds (7) at $3.50, Breyton Paulse (6, Stormers) at $8.00 as is Deon Kayser (6, Sharks) with Wylie Human (Cats, 5) at $7.00 the only other single-figure option. I would recommend a small wager on Kayser. The Sharks are guaranteed a playoff spot and I believe they can beat the Stormers this weekend to set up a home semi. This should give Kayser a very good shot at getting another three matches; something Tuilevu, Paulse and maybe Latham do not have. He is the Sharks chief attacking weapon and with Walker struggling with a hamstring tinge, VALUE. However, this prop bet would only be worth it if you are playing your one unit plays for $20 or more. If you are a $100 punter, I would use a fifth of your one unit spend on this prop.
Hope you all have a successful Friday night whatever you play. Be back tomorrow with the other three matches.
GLTA
