Super 12 Rugby Round Five

[crookycymru]

Looking to pick up from last weeks 2-0 weekend, which finally got us in the black after five rounds.

NSW Waratahs vs Western Stormers (Friday 09:00 am GMT, Sydney, Australia)

The injury hit Stormers travel from Canberra to Sydney at the end of a four match away stint. They have not come inside the spread set here against the Brumbies, Highlanders, or the Hurricanes, and they arguably face the strongest of the four teams in the New South Wales Waratahs on Friday morning.
The Waratahs, who we opposed last week, were shaky against the Bulls last week, but still came away with a ten point win. The missed goals, and endless errors cost them
, but much of the mistakes can be put down to a virus hit squad, together with a determined Bulls outfit, who were superb at all set pieces.
I do not like tipping teams who have to concede a hatful of points, especially at this high level, but there seems only one result on Friday, and that is surely a landslide victory for the Waratahs. If they are to challenge the likes of the Blues and the Crusaders at the top, then they will be looking to pick up a bonus points against teams like the Stormers. They have class throughout their backs, which will cause the Stormers defence all kinds of problems. Matt Rogers looks sharp, and despite the loss of skipper Matty Burke, they can still look to the likes of Scott Staniforth, Nathan Grey and huge physical presence Lote Tiquiri on the wing.
If the Waratahs only improve on last weeks showing, then that will be enough, and the Stormers are in for a long day before they head back home to South Africa.

1 Point Win Waratahs (-14) at 9/10 with CanBet

 

[crookycymru]

Just a note to say I came very close to playing the Blues (-15.5) against the Reds. The line looks too good to be true, but the Reds have two of their better players back, and their line up is hardly poor. Put this together with the fact that the Blues have decided to rest a few of their form men, means I have passed on the game.

Hope I will not regret not playing the line by Friday night, and that the Reds put up some kind of showing as I expect. :shrug:

Meanwhile, looking ahead to the other games, I am sure I will have plays on two more games in round five, so check back tomorrow.

 

[crookycymru]

ACT Brumbies vs Northern Bulls (Saturday, 08:40 am GMT, Canberra, Australia)

The Bulls brought home the money for us last week, with a superb gritty display, sound at set pieces, strong up front, and oh yes, a great deal of luck. However, the game was a perfect example of how hard they are to beat these days. They possess one of the biggest packs in Super 12, and are brilliant at half backs. A blow to this certain two point bet this weekend is the loss of scrum half Joost Van Der Westhuizen, who is out for four weeks, after his huge pack of forwards trampled all over him in destroying a Waratahs scrum last week.
The Brumbies have been tipped up regularly by us this season with mixed results. They finally covered the spread last week against the Stormers, all be it courtesy of a disputable refereeing decision just before half time, which sin binned a Stormers player. At this time the Brumbies were trailing, but scored two tries in that ten minute period to put the game out of the reach of the Stormers. The return of Stephen Larkham at ten, is marred by the fact that hugely influential centre Stirling Mortlock is out for the rest of the Super 12 season. The Brumbies will take his loss hard, as he is their main goal kicker as well as a strong runner in their back line. The Brumbies were completely destroyed up front by the Stormers last week, and they are up against a stronger pack again in the Bulls.
We are banking on similar tactics used against the Waratahs last week. The Bulls to dominate the forward battle, and hopefully contain the dangerous Brumbie backs. This should keep us within the spread, and dont be surprised to see the Bulls spring a real shock on Saturday morning.

1 Point Bulls (+15) at 10/11 with PaddyPower

 

[crookycymru]

Cats vs Wellington Hurricanes (15:05 pm GMT, Bloemfontein, South Africa)

The Cats who appeared to be cannon fodder after the tournaments opening two rounds, have bounced back in real syle. Beating a out of sorts Brumbies in round three meant a lot to them, but they perhaps pulled off the result of the round last week, in defeating the much fancied Otago Highlanders with apparent ease. Their game has taken on a whole new meaning these days under the leadership of skipper Bobby Skinstad, and coach Tim Lane, and they will be hoping to make it three wins on the bounce against the Wellington Hurricanes.
Indeed, the Hurricanes are in the middle of a sudden resurgence at the moment. Perhaps considered the weakest of All Black teams, they suffered a shock result in round two in losing to the rejuvanted Bulls, but have bounced back with wins over the Stormers and the Sharks. However, the quality of the latter teams has to be considered, and it should be a step up in class in facing the Cats. True, it was a great sight for world rugby to see full back Christian Cullen back in form last week against the Sharks.
The Cats will look to bully the Hurricanes out of the game. They have the perfect man this week in returning lock Jannes Labuschagne. He was the man responsible for taking out England fly half Johnny Wilkinson in the autumn England-South Africa test. Wilkinson went down as if he had been sunk by a B52 bomber that day, and Labuschagne was given his marching orders in only the first twenty minutes of the game. He will be rip roaring to get back after his four week ban, and he can take his frustrations out on the Hurricanes forwards who will be without veteran flanker Kupu Vanisi.
The Hurricanes have never won in the intimidating atmosphere of Bloemfontein. Tries will be a plenty, but it seems a great chance for the Cats to prevail in what should be a high scoring affair.

1 Point Cats (scr) at 9/10 with BetDirect

 

[kickserv]

Great write ups Gareth


you are the rugby god

and I saw at some bet shops that there is "tie betting" what the heck is that

how can it be a tie when one team is favoured by say 10 points :shrug: :shrug:

for example

Team A -10 $1.91 Tie $18.00 Team B +10 $1.91

if the game ends 30-30 does that mean ya win the tie bet and the +10 bet


I can't figure out what the heck the tie is there for :shrug:

 

[crookycymru]

Kyle,

It is the great British rip off on handicapping in Europe, that they price up the tie for these type of markets.

What it means is that if a team are favoured by ten points e.g Team A (-10) vs Team B (+10), and the score finishes say 20-10 to Team A, then for the purposes of handicap betting the result is a tie, which is where your 16/1 quote comes in.

This would not be tolerated in other parts of the world. Other books either void such bets, or set their handicaps to say +10.5 which eliminates the possibility of a tie.

If you was to bet with a book that prices up the tie, then it is always a idea to cover your stake with a small bet on the tie at 16/1.

Hope this helps!!

 

[kickserv]

Holy crap

that's terrible

 

[hoss]

Hello Crooky, My ratings are now up + running for Super 12 but I'll wait until next week before 1st posted play.

Had first bet of season today (Sharks +7) - 81st minute try got me home! - always said better to be lucky than good!

FWIW I also favour Bulls + Cats but not enough to part with cash!

Best of luck with your plays

hoss

 

[crookycymru]

Waratahs 29-39 Stormers
Brumbies 64-26 Bulls
Cats 21-28 Huricanes

Apologies to anybody who played these three games. I cannot remember having a worse weekend in a single tournament. 2-0 in the Six Nations icluding a 2 pointer, meant I lost next to nothing. I am about 2 units down on the Super 12 so far, and am stilll very confident that I will end this tournament in profit.

Before this tournament started, I said that my picks on the Super 12 would not count towards my main rugby record on this site. This is because I do not eat, live and breath the Super 12 as I do with the other rugby I post on, and I have had only one season prior to this year, in capping Super 12. I finished last year in profit in what was my first go at capping the Super 12, and I hope to repeat the feat this year.

The Waratahs were 21-0 up inside 16 minutes and I was counting my money. However, we were on the wrong end of what was probably the best comeback by a Super 12 team ever. That Stormers 2nd half was incredible, and by all accords they were playing for their lives out there. The hurt of a loss is sometimes eased by brilliant rugby, and no doubt the Stormers were excellent 2nd half.
The Bulls were inside the spread until they had two players sin binned, and the Brumbies scored four tries in this time, to put the result out of doubt. Good to see the Brumbies playing some good rugby though after struggling all season.
Finally, I remain convinced that the Cats would have beaten the Hurricanes had they not have had a man sent off after only 39 minutes. This was the second time this season, we have suffered from having a man sent off. Indeed, the Cats were leading before going down to 14 men. When capping games, it is impossible to account for teams having men sent off, so this can only be put down to bad luck.

Weekends like these exist in the lives of any gambler, so the only think to do is put it behind us, and move on to next week.

Round six picks next week.

SUPER 12 RUGBY YTD :

5/11 (45%) -2.53 Units (-?253 calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)