Super 12 Rugby Round Four

crookycymru

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A bad start to the season so far. It is fair to say I am pretty pissed off with this losing record after three rounds.

Much of my plays have been based on the Brumbies overcoming the spread. The last two weeks, they have been simply awful. To see supposedly world class players playing like they are is so frustrating from a handicapping point of view. At times against the Cats last week, it seemed they could score points when they really wanted to, but still went on to lose the game, and deservedly so. However, I am waiting for them to come good.....this weekend will be a good indicator of how good, or bad they really are. Hopefully I can tell you how they will beat the spread finally this week, against the Stormers.

Brumbies vs Stormers (08:40 AM GMT, Canberra, Australia)

Let me start with whats wrong with the Stormers. Ok, they begin with a sound victory over the Sharks, but then get trounced by the good Otago Highlanders, and again by the not so good Hurricanes. Put this form together with the fact that they are bang in the middle of a injury crisis, and their chances of beating the Brumbies this week seem slim.
Now the Brumbies have not beaten a Bok side this season. I thought they were sharp against the Reds in the opener, but how they have let us down since. The doctor orders a game back on Australian soil, against a injury ravaged South African team, and this is exactly what they get. It hands them a seemingly good opportunity to get their season back on track. Stirling Mortlock comes back into the side after missing out last week, and will resume goal kicking duties. Stephen Larkhams absence prevents this from being nailed on, but they have so much talent in their backline, they should be able to run rings around the Stormers. If they do so remains another matter, but if they do not take this opportunity this week, then they can throw in the towel. Lets hope to see a ruthless Brumbies team this week, if we get that then the handicap should be surpassed with ease.

1 Point Win Brumbies (-13.5) at 1.90 with CanBet
 

Pumpkin

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Like the Chiefs at the plus this week as they seem to be playing good rubgy. They are hard to get a line on as their loss against the Blues who only had 14 men, but the Crusaders were crushed by the Blues. The line seems to be moving from 14 to 16 so it might pay to wait until later to take the plus
 

crookycymru

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Waratahs vs Bulls (Saturday,08:40 am GMT, Sydney, Australia)

If somebody had told me I would be backing the Bulls against the Waratahs in Sydney, before this season started, I would have thrown my leek in the air and pelted you with my daffodil.
However, as we approach Round Four, they have already won two road games, and ran the Otago Highlanders relatively close last week. The Bulls have always had a huge pack of forwards but their downfall in recent seasons, has been their insistence to play the expansive game with a poor set of backs. They still play this expansive game but this time with a good set of backs. One time world greatest nine, Joost Van Der Westhuizen partners ruthless kicker Louis Koen at halfbacks. Put a good set of half backs behind a strong pack, and the opposition will have problems.
However, the Waratahs, who lost the opener against the classy Auckland Blues, have bounced back with impressive wins over South African opponents the Sharks and the Cats have left them at the right end of the table. However, disaster has struck this week, and their holiday in South Africa has hit their team with a virus bug. This could yet rule a number of their top players out of this clash, and reportedly some of their players have lost a lot of weight. Bob Dwyer can simply not risk his players if they are not 100%, and should his top men start, be sure to expect substitutions, and I expect this to hinder the Waratahs chances of running up a big score.
I hope the Bulls go into the game with the intent of dominating the game up front, and starving the Waratahs dangerous backs of the ball. If our man Louis Koen brings his kicking boots with him, then the Bulls will score points. The Waratahs could be requesting more sick bags by Saturday morning, and it may not be down to the South African virus this time. ;)

1 Point Bulls (+15) at 5/6 with Ladbrokes

I will be back tomorrow night with a possible further play.

Good Luck :)
 

crookycymru

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Brumbies 37-22 Stormers
Waratahs 26-16 Bulls

Great to get back to winning ways again. Two rather fortunate wins courtesy of last minute trys, but rugby is played over 80 minutes and not 75 minutes, so a win is a win. :p

Six Nations rugby returns next weekend as does Round Five of this Super 12 tournament.

SUPER 12 YTD :

5/8 (63%) +0.47 Units (+?47 calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)
 

crookycymru

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RESULTS TO DATE :

15 Mar 2003 NSW Waratahs vs The Bulls 26-16 Sydney
15 Mar 2003 The Cats vs The Highlanders 33-21 Johannesburg
14 Mar 2003 The Crusaders vs The Chiefs 36-29 Christchurch
14 Mar 2003 ACT Brumbies vs The Stormers 37-22 Canberra
14 Mar 2003 The Sharks vs The Hurricanes 20-35 Durban
08 Mar 2003 The Chiefs vs Queensland 43-27 Hamilton(NZ)
08 Mar 2003 The Blues vs The Crusaders 39-5 Albany,NZ
08 Mar 2003 The Sharks vs NSW Waratahs 36-49 Durban
07 Mar 2003 The Highlanders vs The Bulls 29-22 Invercargill
07 Mar 2003 The Hurricanes vs The Stormers 33-18 Wellington
07 Mar 2003 The Cats vs ACT Brumbies 34-32 Johannesburg
01 Mar 2003 The Crusaders vs Queensland 34-6 Christchurch
01 Mar 2003 The Highlanders vs The Stormers 41-17 Dunedin
01 Mar 2003 The Hurricanes vs The Bulls 34-46 Napier
01 Mar 2003 The Sharks vs ACT Brumbies 25-17 Durban
01 Mar 2003 The Cats vs NSW Waratahs 36-48 Bloemfontein
28 Feb 2003 The Chiefs vs The Blues 27-30 Hamilton(NZ)
22 Feb 2003 The Crusaders vs The Hurricanes 37-21 Christchurch
22 Feb 2003 Queensland vs ACT Brumbies 19-22 Brisbane
21 Feb 2003 The Chiefs vs The Highlanders 16-29 Hamilton(NZ)
21 Feb 2003 NSW Waratahs vs The Blues 18-31 Sydney
21 Feb 2003 The Cats vs The Bulls 26-34 Bloemfontein
21 Feb 2003 The Stormers vs The Sharks 40-18 Cape Town
 

crookycymru

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2003 SUPER 12 CURRENT STANDINGS :

Team P W D L F A Diff TB PTS
The Blues 3 3 0 0 100 50 50 3 15
NSW Waratahs 4 3 0 1 141 119 22 3 15
The Crusaders 4 3 0 1 112 95 17 3 15
The Highlanders 4 3 0 1 120 88 32 1 13
The Hurricanes 4 2 0 2 123 121 2 3 11
ACT Brumbies 4 2 0 2 108 100 8 2 10
The Bulls 4 2 0 2 118 115 3 2 10
The Cats 4 2 0 2 129 135 -6 1 9
The Chiefs 4 1 0 3 115 122 -7 3 7
The Stormers 4 1 0 3 97 129 -32 1 5
The Sharks 4 1 0 3 99 141 -42 1 5
Queensland 3 0 0 3 52 99 -47 1 1
 
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