Super 12 Week 9

[Anders]

No play tonite on the wkend opener between the Blues and Bulls; have no confidence in either side covering the spread.

Back later with a couple of plays for the other games.

 

[Anders]

Game Two) Chiefs v Stormers, Waikato Stadium
Chiefs -6.5

Was going to pass here but I think the number is just a little too low to pass on the home side - i had it pegged around 10.
The Chiefs could struggle to get over their tough two-match road trip in SA - some players lost up to 6kg in their slightly unfortunate loss to the Sharks last weekend. But last year they hammered the 'canes in Wellington first game up back from the same trip and with a little luck would be going into this game having beaten the Highlanders, Cats and Sharks all away.
The Stormers had their moments v the Crusaders but have virtually no hope of a playoff spot and aren't a side that can dominate its opponent.
With a big home programme remaining, the Chiefs will relish just their 2nd match at the new Waikato Stadium in front of a full home crowd - including Anders! - and a workmanlike pack can provide enough ball for the likes of Roger Randle and Bruce Reihana to excel. Expect an open, fast-paced match and with scoring likely to be high - night-time conditions will be perfect - the spread isn't a big ask.

PLAY CHIEFS -6.5

Game Three) Waratahs v Brumbies, Sydney
Pick 'em

Could this be a changing of the guard in Oz rugby? The Waratahs have been on fire almost all season while the Brumbies have now lost two in a row and have an awful record in Sydney.
I think last weekend's upset win by the 'canes hasn't helped the Waratahs cause though - the defending champs are angry and hungry to get back on track. The determination of Owen Finegan to play after spending most of the week in hospital is a sign of how badly the Wallaby members of the Brumbies want to protect their reputations and jerseys.
The Waratahs did enough to deserve their win over the Highlanders but it was again scrappy stuff and they only got on top when Otago lost the big go-forward of No8 Paul Miller. They can't afford to make many errors v the Brumbies, who should play a lot smarter than last weekend.

PLAY BRUMBIES PK 'EM

Will have the 2 Sth African matches covered tomorrow.

 

[hoss]

Went 3/1 last week, again managing to choose my biggest bet for the only loser! 2 weeks on the trot that's happened

Season so far 14/5 (73.6%) +11pts - should be much further up given that strike rate but never mind...

Only 2 plays for me this week :

3pts Chiefs (-5) v Stormers 9/10 Bet365
3pts Crusaders (-7) v Sharks 5/6 Blue Sq

maybe they'll both get beat

would probably take Waratahs +3 and Reds -5 in other games but I'll leave them for now.

GLTA
Hoss

 

[Cartman88]

Just one Super 12 play for me this weekend:

ACT -110 vs NSW

Should be a great match and I expect the ACT to come out firing after their defeat last weekend.

 

[Anders]

Game Four) Cats v Reds, Johannesburg
Cats +6.5

The pressure goes on the Reds as they seek to stay alive in playoff contention away from home.
The Reds have yet to win away this season and have looked patchy thru-out their campaign, with their almost-blown win over the Stormers a fortnight ago fairly typical of the Queenslanders.
They have a new captain in Matt Cockbain for this one with centre Daniel Herbert out injured while they will also miss his presence and experience with Junior Pelesasa his replacement.
The Cats haven't won since rd one but pushed the Blues close last weekend and should truly relish a return to their `true' home at Ellis Pk. They have played the last two home matches at Bloemfontein and are value here getting points.

PLAY CATS +6.5

Game Five) Sharks v Crusaders, Durban
Sharks +8

Hard to bet against the classy Crusaders but they don't often cover the spread with the ease that they should.
Now they have to travel to face a Sharks team that has recovered from their horror start to become a much tougher force in Durban. They've pipped the Blues and Chiefs in consecutive weeks and seem, under new coach Kevin Putt, to have grown in confidence while adding a little desperately needed flair to their game.
Putt has made seven changes from last week's side to keep his players fresh while the Crusaders have omitted All Blacks Andrew Mehrtens and Leon McDonald in favour of Aaron Mauger and Ben Blair. Mauger's presence is designed to strengthen their defence close to the fringes and while Blair is a good goalkicker, neither player can control the game like Mehrtens.
After a horror run ATS and SU for the Sth African sides, they are slowly turning things around and I'll stick with the home team getting points.

PLAY SHARKS +8.5